re: The Over/Under for Bama/LSU opened at 54

quote:

---

I haven't touched any aspect of a Bama game after the '09 Sugar Bowl debacle against Utah. I thought Bama at -11.5 was easy money, boy was I fricking wrong.

This is tempting, though.

---

If you bet often, taking huge dogs against Alabama is a good way to make some money. With the public love Alabama gets, huge dogs are great bets. Alabama even gives up 16+ to teams like Tenn and Arkansas most years. Usually good bets.

Vegas isn't in the business of giving away money. Feel free to post your bet though.This game is begging for the over. I expect a game similar to 2007.

One thing that makes this total a bit scary, is when the game starts off slow, both coaches seem to be content with getting it to the 4th with a low scoring, relatively stress free first 3 quarters. It'll be obvious what type of game we're in for fairly early into the game.

unless they think maybe that both defenses are overrated

quote:

---

Betting my life savings on the under.

---

LSU's defense gives up at least 20 a game. If you think there is a chance that LSU wins this game (and there is) don't touch that line.

I agree. And as someone else mentioned, Kiffen isn't afraid to get into a shootout if he has to. I think each team is gonna trade blows and could see it falling just short at 28-24 or something.

It's interesting to note that since 2000, this over would only have hit 4 times.

This game is the easiest under bet to make.


How many times has it gone over in the last 10 years? Twice? 07, and 13?

quote:

---

I agree. And as someone else mentioned, Kiffen isn't afraid to get into a shootout if he has to. I think each team is gonna trade blows and could see it falling just short at 28-24 or something.

It's interesting to note that since 2000, this over would only have hit 4 times.

---

Kiffin seems to be a big X factor in how Alabama plays nowadays. Before he arrived, it seemed like Alabama dared teams to reach 17 points, and if it looked like they might, Alabama would adjust the offense a little bit and make sure the game was close enough to steal in the 2nd half. If the opponent looked like they couldn't score to save their lives, Alabama was gonna run all damn day.

Now, Alabama seems content with mistakes as long as the defense can be trusted to come up with stops every now and then. They definitely aren't scared to get into scoring matches if need be.

Bama 30
LSU 21

Take the under.

This is very back of the envelope but if you back into the expected score given the spread, I think they are being very generous with Bama's offense being able to move the ball. 54 makes it roughly 31-23. Let's say there's a 50-50 chance of LSU spotting Bama 2 TDs from blown coverage and special teams miscues. That's like 21-24 points from moving the ball or having consistently really good field position. I'm trying to be as objective as possible and I frankly don't see it with Bama's OT situation hampering them, even if Keehn has an atrocious game.

Forecast for the game has improved moderately, but if it takes a turn for the worse, I could see it benefiting Bama, so maybe that is baked into the model to some degree. At any rate, it's obvious Vegas isn't expecting a defensive brawl, which is curious given the spread and general matchup.