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The MSU/air raid argument is really simple

Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:27 am
Posted by EarlyCuyler3
Appalachia
Member since Nov 2017
27290 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:27 am
This really isn't that complicated. Leach will average at least 3 losses yearly to some combo of Bama, auburn, l1u, and some other team where he has his annual shite the bed game. He will also pull off a major upset every now and then he shouldn't. Kind of like Gus, just with less waffles and less defense. And competent offense.

He has more talent sure, but he's also facing more talent.
Posted by 1BIGTigerFan
100,000 posts
Member since Jan 2007
49107 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:29 am to
What's all this mumbo-jumbo?
Posted by Hailstate15
ForeverGator's mom's
Member since Nov 2018
21466 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:30 am to
they scared baw
Posted by EarlyCuyler3
Appalachia
Member since Nov 2017
27290 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:30 am to
It's football, you wouldn't understand.
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
26956 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:31 am to
He'll also blow 4th quarter leads and lose games he should win because he can't run the ball and take time off the clock. He blew a 32 point second half lead against UCLA last year and lost.
Posted by megiddo
Member since May 2020
518 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:31 am to
He was in the Big 12 South where he played Texas and Oklahoma every single year.

He was in the Pac 12 North where he played Stanford, Washington, and Oregon every single year.

Now he's in the SEC West where he plays LSU, Alabama, and Auburn every single year.

He'll get an extra OOC game which will puff up his average wins, which will likely be between 8-10 each season.
Posted by 1BIGTigerFan
100,000 posts
Member since Jan 2007
49107 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:32 am to
quote:

It's football, you wouldn't understand.

Just because my team forgot how to play, doesn't mean I did.
Posted by megiddo
Member since May 2020
518 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:32 am to
He didn't blow that 32 point lead.

His players fumbling the ball blew the 32 point second half lead.

If any team fumbles/turns over the ball 6 times in the second half it's very likely they'll lose the game, I'd think.
This post was edited on 9/29/20 at 11:34 am
Posted by Hailstate15
ForeverGator's mom's
Member since Nov 2018
21466 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:35 am to
they don’t know logic baw. Pirate man bad
Posted by EarlyCuyler3
Appalachia
Member since Nov 2017
27290 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:35 am to
quote:

He was in the Big 12 South where he played Texas and Oklahoma every single year.

He was in the Pac 12 North where he played Stanford, Washington, and Oregon every single year.

Now he's in the SEC West where he plays LSU, Alabama, and Auburn every single year.


3, well 2, of these teams aren't like the others.

I predict 3 to 4 losses yearly and at best a 2nd place finish in the west. More likely 3rd. I like him, but let's just temper expectations here. I'm glad he's in the conference even though one of those incredible upsets will probably come against us one year.
Posted by 1BIGTigerFan
100,000 posts
Member since Jan 2007
49107 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:36 am to
PMB...I like it.
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
25495 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:38 am to
quote:

Pirate man bad


Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
26956 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

His players fumbling the ball blew the 32 point second half lead.




Fumbles? You could blame Costello for the 4th quarter fumble, but Leach put him in a position where he's having to scramble to avoid a pass rush.

In the UCLA game, the first fumble after the 32 point lead was on a first down passing play on his own 25 where a receiver gets hit after making a catch, only taking :08 off the clock. If Leach keeps the ball on the ground, that fumble probably doesn't happen.

UCLA's next touchdown came after a 5 play possession that had two incomplete passes, including one on first down. Only 1:59 off the clock.

The next possession was another fumble after another receiver got hit after a catch. :45 off the clock. Another possession where a safer, ball-control offense could have eaten some clock.

Now we're halfway through the 4th quarter and WSU is only up 3 points. Next possession...INC, INC, INC...followed by a punt return for a TD.

WSU scores to go back up 63-60, then holds UCLA and gets the ball back with about 3:20 left, deep in their own territory at the 12. Again, instead of keeping the ball on the ground, he throws the ball and another receiver fumbles after the catch. UCLA scores to take the lead.

Sure, you can blame his receivers for coughing up the ball. But if he has any ability whatsoever to run the football those fumbles probably don't happen. Just running the ball before the punt instead of three straight incompletions would have probably taken enough time off the clock to help secure a win.
Posted by Jjdoc
Cali
Member since Mar 2016
53442 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 12:42 pm to
I seriously can not believe our fans are this dense.

Posted by Jjdoc
Cali
Member since Mar 2016
53442 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

You could blame Costello for the 4th quarter fumble,


Well.. it was the way he was holding the ball....

quote:

Leach put him in a position where he's having to scramble to avoid a pass rush.


Every play is a potential fumble. Come on.

quote:

Sure, you can blame his receivers for coughing up the ball. But



No buts.... A RB can fumble just as easily...


Posted by houstonearler
Member since Jan 2005
173 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

3, well 2, of these teams aren't like the others.


The Big 12 South was the best division in college football during most of Leach's tenure.
Posted by BiscuitEater
Maroon Nation
Member since Sep 2010
311 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 12:49 pm to
You scared?
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
42558 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 12:54 pm to
I disagree. What makes the AR so deadly in CFB is the concepts are simple. ML is already starting to attract elite QB/WR talent and will score points on everyone. The question has always been D. Jury is still out on how they will compete there.
Posted by weadjust
Member since Aug 2012
15090 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

I predict 3 to 4 losses yearly and at best a 2nd place finish in the west. More likely 3rd.


Mullen had one 2nd place finish and eight 4th/5th place finishes in the West. The talking heads were saying this was remarkable and that Mullen was the 2nd best coach in the SEC.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64509 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

This really isn't that complicated. Leach will average at least 3 losses yearly to some combo of Bama, auburn, l1u, and some other team where he has his annual shite the bed game. He will also pull off a major upset every now and then he shouldn't. Kind of like Gus, just with less waffles and less defense. And competent offense.

He has more talent sure, but he's also facing more talent.

Even with LSU losing Saturday, I still believe this to be spot on, which honestly makes me want to puke agreeing with you. I think a reasonable expectation for them is to somewhat replicate what Mullen was able to do, which I think s very reasonable for State.

I'll use his time at Texas Tech since I believe his time there is more comparable to his situation now. I think Texas Tech's value and ability to recruit relative to other conference members is, more or less, on par with where State is in the SEC. Further the Big 12, at that time, was a much better conference, top to bottom, than the Pac12 was when Leach was there

Texas Tech:
2009 - Lost #2 Texas, #17 Houston, #17 Oklahoma State; beat Oklahoma; got blasted by 6-7 A&M

2008 - started the season 10-0, then gets humiliated 65-21 by Oklahoma and then follows that up by being embarrassed by a Houston Nutt Ole Miss team in the Cotton Bowl

2007: blown our by #15 Missouri & #15 Texas, lost to 6-7 Colorado but managed to beat #3 Oklahoma

2006: Lost to all the ranked teams he played (Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, and Missouri) and was blown out by a score of 31-6 at the hands of a 2-10 Colorado team

2005: Blown out by #2 Texas, lost to Oklahoma State, beat Oklahoma, and then were shut down defensively by a pretty average Alabama team in the Cotton Bowl

2004: Lost to #2 Oklahoma, #22 A&M, and #8 Texas. Lost to 7-5 New Mexico but then blew out #4, Aaron Rogers led Cal in the Holiday Bowl

2003: Lost to all the ranked teams on his schedule (Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State) plus blow out losses to 8-5 NC State and 8-5 Missouri (both 28+ point losses)

2002: Blowout losses to #13 Ohio State, #11 Iowa State, #21 Colorado, #4 Oklahoma, and another loss to #17 NC State. Yet beat #4 Texas

2001: Lost to #5 Texas, #3 Nebraska, #3 Oklahoma. Beat #24 Kansas State and shutout #24 A&M 12-0 (odd score for a Leach game). But also managed to lose to 3-8 Kansas

2000: Lost to every ranked team he played (Nebraska, Kansas St, Texas, and Oklahoma) plus a loss to 7-5 A&M and a blowout bowl game loss to 8-4 East Carolina


I think it's clear that Leach's teams have the ability to sneak up on really good teams and beat them but also the ability to lose to really bad teams on any given week. Kind of the opposite of Mullen at State. Mullen seemed to generally beat all the teams he was supposed to beat and rarely beat the teams he wasn't supposed to beat. i remember Mullen having an embarrassing record against ranked team. However, at the end of the day, both coaches seemed to generally win between 7-9 games. Leach's winning percentage at Texas Tech was .661. Mullen's winning percentage at State was .600. Leach had one 10-win season in 10 years at Texas Tech. Mullen had one 10 win season in 9 years at State.
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