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Super Duper SEC Bowl Matchup Breakdown and Predictions
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:01 am
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:01 am
This is using F+ rankings for the overall and special teams and S&P rankings for Offense and Defense rankings. These are efficiency numbers, hence why Auburn and Georgia Tech have such high passing ratings. They don't throw as much as Baylor or Texas A&M but when they do they are more efficient. In addition, these stats are opponenet adjusted. See them all at [link=(www.footballoutsiders.com)]Football Outsiders Advanced Metrics[/link]
INDEPENDENCE BOWL - SOUTH CAROLINA VS MIAMI
Overall
South Carolina - 56
Miami - 24
When South Carolina Has the Ball
South Carolina Run O : 15
Miami Run D : 34
South Carolina Pass O : 21
Miami Pass D : 7
When Miami Has the Ball
Miami Run O : 55
South Carolina Run D : 117
Miami Pass O : 19
South Carolina Pass D : 85
Special Teams
Miami : 87
South Carolina 38
Analysis & Prediction
Miami should not have much problem moving the ball on South Carolina with an above average, balanced offense. South Carolina should move the ball well, but Miami's defense is average-good to go along with an average-good offense. Got to think Miami wins a semi-shootout type game.
Miami 37 - USCe 24
LIBERTY BOWL - TEXAS A&M VS WEST VIRGINIA
Overall
A&M - 53
WVU - 34
When A&M Has the Ball
A&M Run O : 20
WVU Run D : 17
A&M Pass O : 20
WVU Pass D : 14
When West Virginia Has the Ball
WVU Run O : 62
A&M Run D : 110
WVU Pass O : 30
A&M Pass D : 24
Special Teams
WVU : 59
A&M : 32
Analysis & Prediction
The WVU defense has been sneaky good this year. They had poor games against Alabama and Oklahoma early but played well against poorer offenses and well against TCU and Baylor at home (TCU had multiple short fields). The matchup when A&M has the ball is fairly even as is the WVU passing vs A&M pass d matchup. The biggest advantage in this one is WVU's run game with Shell and Co. vs the A&M run D. Turnovers are the wild card.
WVU 35 - A&M 27
INDEPENDENCE BOWL - SOUTH CAROLINA VS MIAMI
Overall
South Carolina - 56
Miami - 24
When South Carolina Has the Ball
South Carolina Run O : 15
Miami Run D : 34
South Carolina Pass O : 21
Miami Pass D : 7
When Miami Has the Ball
Miami Run O : 55
South Carolina Run D : 117
Miami Pass O : 19
South Carolina Pass D : 85
Special Teams
Miami : 87
South Carolina 38
Analysis & Prediction
Miami should not have much problem moving the ball on South Carolina with an above average, balanced offense. South Carolina should move the ball well, but Miami's defense is average-good to go along with an average-good offense. Got to think Miami wins a semi-shootout type game.
Miami 37 - USCe 24
LIBERTY BOWL - TEXAS A&M VS WEST VIRGINIA
Overall
A&M - 53
WVU - 34
When A&M Has the Ball
A&M Run O : 20
WVU Run D : 17
A&M Pass O : 20
WVU Pass D : 14
When West Virginia Has the Ball
WVU Run O : 62
A&M Run D : 110
WVU Pass O : 30
A&M Pass D : 24
Special Teams
WVU : 59
A&M : 32
Analysis & Prediction
The WVU defense has been sneaky good this year. They had poor games against Alabama and Oklahoma early but played well against poorer offenses and well against TCU and Baylor at home (TCU had multiple short fields). The matchup when A&M has the ball is fairly even as is the WVU passing vs A&M pass d matchup. The biggest advantage in this one is WVU's run game with Shell and Co. vs the A&M run D. Turnovers are the wild card.
WVU 35 - A&M 27
This post was edited on 12/8/14 at 1:23 pm
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Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:03 am to SummerOfGeorge
pretty snazzy stuff, but I think that was the conventional wisdom all along. Both the Cocks and Aggies will be underdogs. 
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:04 am to SummerOfGeorge
Yeah, not feeling good about this match-up at all. I think WVU is going to give us all sorts of problems.
frick computers though:
Ags 38
Couchburners: 27
frick computers though:
Ags 38
Couchburners: 27
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
Here's the flaw in the West Virginia matchup.
Turnover Margin
A&M -7
West Virginia -15
Turnover Margin
A&M -7
West Virginia -15
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:06 am to SummerOfGeorge
TEXAS BOWL - ARKANSAS VS TEXAS
Overall
ARK - 20
TEX - 57
When ARK Has the Ball
ARK Run O : 18
TEX Run D : 33
ARK Pass O : 28
TEX Pass D : 4
When TEXAS Has the Ball
TEX Run O : 51
ARK Run D : 86
TEX Pass O : 86
ARK Pass D : 21
Special Teams
TEX : 117
ARK : 81
Analysis & Prediction
People will say these 2 teams are evenly matched....that will be wrong. Arkansas is an 8-4 team in any other division in the country and is a better team than Texas.
ARKY 27 - TEXAS 17
MUSIC CITY - LSU VS NOTRE DAME
Overall
LSU - 18
ND - 36
When LSU Has the Ball
LSU Run O : 27
ND Run D : 48
LSU Pass O : 49
ND Pass D : 84
When NOTRE DAME Has the Ball
ND Run O : 31
LSU Run D : 15
ND Pass O : 38
LSU Pass D : 5
Special Teams
ND : 46
LSU : 19
Analysis & Prediction
Notre Dame just isn't very good at anything. LSU will pound them into submission, hit 1 or 2 play action passes (maybe? Harris? Jennings?) and shut down Notre Dame's offense.
LSU 27 - NOTRE DAME 10
Overall
ARK - 20
TEX - 57
When ARK Has the Ball
ARK Run O : 18
TEX Run D : 33
ARK Pass O : 28
TEX Pass D : 4
When TEXAS Has the Ball
TEX Run O : 51
ARK Run D : 86
TEX Pass O : 86
ARK Pass D : 21
Special Teams
TEX : 117
ARK : 81
Analysis & Prediction
People will say these 2 teams are evenly matched....that will be wrong. Arkansas is an 8-4 team in any other division in the country and is a better team than Texas.
ARKY 27 - TEXAS 17
MUSIC CITY - LSU VS NOTRE DAME
Overall
LSU - 18
ND - 36
When LSU Has the Ball
LSU Run O : 27
ND Run D : 48
LSU Pass O : 49
ND Pass D : 84
When NOTRE DAME Has the Ball
ND Run O : 31
LSU Run D : 15
ND Pass O : 38
LSU Pass D : 5
Special Teams
ND : 46
LSU : 19
Analysis & Prediction
Notre Dame just isn't very good at anything. LSU will pound them into submission, hit 1 or 2 play action passes (maybe? Harris? Jennings?) and shut down Notre Dame's offense.
LSU 27 - NOTRE DAME 10
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:07 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Here's the flaw in the West Virginia matchup. Turnover Margin A&M -7 West Virginia -15
Agree, and WVU has been really bad with TO's the last 5-6 games.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:14 am to SummerOfGeorge
BELK BOWL - GEORGIA VS LOUISVILLE
Overall
UGA - 7
LOU - 16
When UGA Has the Ball
UGA Run O : 7
LOU Run D : 23
UGA Pass O : 24
LOU Pass D : 18
When LOUISVILLE Has the Ball
LOU Run O : 26
UGA Run D : 69
LOU Pass O : 38
UGA Pass D : 11
Special Teams
LOU : 88
UGA : 11
Analysis & Prediction
Pretty great matchup for the Belk Bowl to get. Top 20 teams, evenly matched across the board, Petrino, Grantham Bowl, etc. This should be a solid game and seems like one of those bowls that could come down to who wants to be there and prepares that way.
UGA 27 - LVILLE 21
PEACH BOWL - OLE MISS VS TCU
Overall
OM - 4
TCU - 5
When OLE MISS Has the Ball
OM Run O : 37
TCU Run D : 6
OM Pass O : 9
TCU Pass D : 34
When TCU Has the Ball
TCU Run O : 6
OM Run D : 4
TCU Pass O : 34
OM Pass D : 3
Special Teams
TCU : 10
OM : 39
Analysis & Prediction
The Peach Bowl clearly wins in the new Playoff Era alignment. They go from a fringe Top 25 ACC-SEC matchup to the best non-playoff matchup of the bowl season. Contrary to popular belief amongst ESPN analysts, TCU's best weapon is their run game, not their pass game. On the other side, the game will clearly rest on Dr. Bo's shoulders. Should be a really interesting game and a great atmosphere in the Georgia Dome.
TCU 24 - Ole Miss 21
Overall
UGA - 7
LOU - 16
When UGA Has the Ball
UGA Run O : 7
LOU Run D : 23
UGA Pass O : 24
LOU Pass D : 18
When LOUISVILLE Has the Ball
LOU Run O : 26
UGA Run D : 69
LOU Pass O : 38
UGA Pass D : 11
Special Teams
LOU : 88
UGA : 11
Analysis & Prediction
Pretty great matchup for the Belk Bowl to get. Top 20 teams, evenly matched across the board, Petrino, Grantham Bowl, etc. This should be a solid game and seems like one of those bowls that could come down to who wants to be there and prepares that way.
UGA 27 - LVILLE 21
PEACH BOWL - OLE MISS VS TCU
Overall
OM - 4
TCU - 5
When OLE MISS Has the Ball
OM Run O : 37
TCU Run D : 6
OM Pass O : 9
TCU Pass D : 34
When TCU Has the Ball
TCU Run O : 6
OM Run D : 4
TCU Pass O : 34
OM Pass D : 3
Special Teams
TCU : 10
OM : 39
Analysis & Prediction
The Peach Bowl clearly wins in the new Playoff Era alignment. They go from a fringe Top 25 ACC-SEC matchup to the best non-playoff matchup of the bowl season. Contrary to popular belief amongst ESPN analysts, TCU's best weapon is their run game, not their pass game. On the other side, the game will clearly rest on Dr. Bo's shoulders. Should be a really interesting game and a great atmosphere in the Georgia Dome.
TCU 24 - Ole Miss 21
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:14 am to SummerOfGeorge
Will finish up later today if anybody is interested.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:17 am to SummerOfGeorge
Keep it up
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:22 am to SummerOfGeorge
This analysis is pretty indicative of my feelings about TCU. Extremely good team that we'll have trouble with. Hope this amazing match up doesn't cost me Ole Miss's undefeated record in Bowl games I attend, but it'll be tough to beat this team.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:23 am to SummerOfGeorge
Thanks!
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:25 am to SummerOfGeorge
Big 12 thinking: If I find something that works once and do it a LOT, we will win.
Then they get pissed when it stops working: "This is America ... damn it ... I'm entitled to the same results as others ..."
Then they get pissed when it stops working: "This is America ... damn it ... I'm entitled to the same results as others ..."
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:26 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Super Duper SEC Bowl Matchup Breakdown : Computers
Good stuff SummerOfGeorge. Have an upvote
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:27 am to SummerOfGeorge
Yes, please keep 'em coming.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:39 am to SummerOfGeorge
ORANGE BOWL - MISSISSIPPI STATE VS GEORGIA TECH
Overall
MSU - 6
GT - 10
When MSU Has the Ball
MSU Run O : 5
GT Run D : 96
MSU Pass O : 8
GT Pass D : 81
When GEORGIA TECH Has the Ball
GT Run O : 4
MSU Run D : 21
GT Pass O : 6
MSU Pass D : 16
Special Teams
GT : 23
MSU : 48
Analysis & Prediction
This one could be wild. Tech's defense is really bad, but is pretty good at forcing turnovers. Prescott and Robinson should pile up yards, but Prescott's recent turnover issues could give Tech a few stops. On the flip side, Tech's offense is really good, and Justin Thomas is great in the option game and good enough in the pass game. Who knows how State will react to the triple option with a month to prepare, but you have to think Tech will still get chunks. In addition, State has had explosive play issues on defense.
MISS STATE 38 - GEORGIA TECH 28
OUTBACK BOWL - AUBURN VS WISCONSIN
Overall
AUB - 12
WIS - 17
When AUBURN Has the Ball
AUB Run O : 12
WIS Run D : 29
AUB Pass O : 2
WIS Pass D : 31
When WISCONSIN Has the Ball
WIS Run O : 10
AUB Run D : 18
WIS Pass O : 42
AUB Pass D : 47
Special Teams
WIS : 80
AUB : 79
Analysis & Prediction
Basically as good a matchup as Auburn could ask for. Wisconsin's strengths matchup with Auburn's strengths on defense and Wisconsin doesn't have the athletes to fully take advantage of the Auburn pass defense. On the flip side, Wisconsin's defense was a paper tiger all year and the last game showed it. Auburn will put a beatdown on the Badgers.
AUBURN 47 - WISCONSIN 27
Overall
MSU - 6
GT - 10
When MSU Has the Ball
MSU Run O : 5
GT Run D : 96
MSU Pass O : 8
GT Pass D : 81
When GEORGIA TECH Has the Ball
GT Run O : 4
MSU Run D : 21
GT Pass O : 6
MSU Pass D : 16
Special Teams
GT : 23
MSU : 48
Analysis & Prediction
This one could be wild. Tech's defense is really bad, but is pretty good at forcing turnovers. Prescott and Robinson should pile up yards, but Prescott's recent turnover issues could give Tech a few stops. On the flip side, Tech's offense is really good, and Justin Thomas is great in the option game and good enough in the pass game. Who knows how State will react to the triple option with a month to prepare, but you have to think Tech will still get chunks. In addition, State has had explosive play issues on defense.
MISS STATE 38 - GEORGIA TECH 28
OUTBACK BOWL - AUBURN VS WISCONSIN
Overall
AUB - 12
WIS - 17
When AUBURN Has the Ball
AUB Run O : 12
WIS Run D : 29
AUB Pass O : 2
WIS Pass D : 31
When WISCONSIN Has the Ball
WIS Run O : 10
AUB Run D : 18
WIS Pass O : 42
AUB Pass D : 47
Special Teams
WIS : 80
AUB : 79
Analysis & Prediction
Basically as good a matchup as Auburn could ask for. Wisconsin's strengths matchup with Auburn's strengths on defense and Wisconsin doesn't have the athletes to fully take advantage of the Auburn pass defense. On the flip side, Wisconsin's defense was a paper tiger all year and the last game showed it. Auburn will put a beatdown on the Badgers.
AUBURN 47 - WISCONSIN 27
Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:43 am to SummerOfGeorge
CITRUS BOWL - MISSOURI VS MINNESOTA
Overall
MIZZ - 31
MINN - 35
When MIZZOU Has the Ball
MIZZ Run O : 48
MINN Run D : 30
MIZZ Pass O : 66
MINN Pass D : 43
When MINNESOTA Has the Ball
MINN Run O : 41
MIZZ Run D : 11
MINN Pass O : 51
MIZZ Pass D : 43
Special Teams
MINN : 9
MIZZ : 45
Analysis & Prediction
Has all the makings of a defensive struggle. Neither does much great on offense (I don't know Cobb's status for Minny, he is a pretty solid back) and Mizzou has a bit better D than Minnesota. However, I am assuming Ray will be out for the 1st half (could be wrong here)? Either way, should be a low scoring ballgame between two well-coached, overachieving teams.
MISSOURI 24 - MINNESOTA 17
Overall
MIZZ - 31
MINN - 35
When MIZZOU Has the Ball
MIZZ Run O : 48
MINN Run D : 30
MIZZ Pass O : 66
MINN Pass D : 43
When MINNESOTA Has the Ball
MINN Run O : 41
MIZZ Run D : 11
MINN Pass O : 51
MIZZ Pass D : 43
Special Teams
MINN : 9
MIZZ : 45
Analysis & Prediction
Has all the makings of a defensive struggle. Neither does much great on offense (I don't know Cobb's status for Minny, he is a pretty solid back) and Mizzou has a bit better D than Minnesota. However, I am assuming Ray will be out for the 1st half (could be wrong here)? Either way, should be a low scoring ballgame between two well-coached, overachieving teams.
MISSOURI 24 - MINNESOTA 17
Posted on 12/8/14 at 11:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
SUGAR BOWL CFP SEMIFINAL - ALABAMA VS OHIO STATE
Overall
BAMA - 1
OSU - 2
When BAMA Has the Ball
BAMA Run O : 8
OSU Run D : 37
BAMA Pass O : 3
OSU Pass D : 26
When OHIO STATE Has the Ball
OSU Run O : 1
BAMA Run D : 1
OSU Pass O : 1
BAMA Pass D : 26
Special Teams
BAMA : 91
OM : 20
Analysis & Prediction
The stats on the OSU offense site are really less effective in analysis since most of those were compiled with JT Barrett at QB. If Jones plays like he did against Wisconsin then you have to think OSU will have some success going up top. OSU's ground game will be much different as Jones is not the same runner Barrett is, and I don't think OSU will have much success without the QB threat running. OSU has very good receivers and Jones has a huge arm, so you can guarantee they will test the ball skill poor Alabama secondary. On the flip side, I think OSU's defense is a little better version of Missouri. Alabama has clear advantages in the run and pass game, and OSU will have issues (as does everyone) in slowing Cooper and not getting beat by others. Finally, this type of game is one where Alabama's traditional field goal woes could hurt.
ALABAMA 31 - OHIO STATE 21
Overall
BAMA - 1
OSU - 2
When BAMA Has the Ball
BAMA Run O : 8
OSU Run D : 37
BAMA Pass O : 3
OSU Pass D : 26
When OHIO STATE Has the Ball
OSU Run O : 1
BAMA Run D : 1
OSU Pass O : 1
BAMA Pass D : 26
Special Teams
BAMA : 91
OM : 20
Analysis & Prediction
The stats on the OSU offense site are really less effective in analysis since most of those were compiled with JT Barrett at QB. If Jones plays like he did against Wisconsin then you have to think OSU will have some success going up top. OSU's ground game will be much different as Jones is not the same runner Barrett is, and I don't think OSU will have much success without the QB threat running. OSU has very good receivers and Jones has a huge arm, so you can guarantee they will test the ball skill poor Alabama secondary. On the flip side, I think OSU's defense is a little better version of Missouri. Alabama has clear advantages in the run and pass game, and OSU will have issues (as does everyone) in slowing Cooper and not getting beat by others. Finally, this type of game is one where Alabama's traditional field goal woes could hurt.
ALABAMA 31 - OHIO STATE 21
This post was edited on 12/8/14 at 11:36 am
Posted on 12/8/14 at 11:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
IMO Alabama will destroy Ohio State and will not be close.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 11:43 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I am assuming Ray will be out for the 1st half
No, Ray went out the 1st half the SECCG, so he won't have to sit in the 1st half of the bowl game.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 1:20 pm to Chawboy
GATOR BOWL - TENNESSEE VS IOWA
Overall
TENN - 43
IOWA - 55
When TENNESSEE Has the Ball
TENN Run O : 50
IOWA Run D : 24
TENN Pass O : 47
IOWA Pass D : 65
When IOWA Has the Ball
IOWA Run O : 102
TENN Run D : 22
IOWA Pass O : 55
TENN Pass D : 13
Special Teams
TENN : 27
IOWA : 95
Analysis & Prediction
Iowa stinks. Tennessee has some young talent at RB/WR and a bad OL with QB who seems to have talent but has not performed well against good defenses who have prepped for him. You have to think Tennessee will have to throw the football to win, and that they will do that just enough and shut down Iowa's poor offense.
TENNESSEE 24 - IOWA 13
BIRMINGHAM BOWL - FLORIDA VS EAST CAROLINA
Overall
FLA - 41
ECU - 58
When FLORIDA Has the Ball
FLA Run O : 71
ECU Run D : 45
FLA Pass O : 90
ECU Pass D : 113
When EAST CAROLINA Has the Ball
ECU Run O : 44
FLA Run D : 16
ECU Pass O : 48
FLA Pass D : 12
Special Teams
ECU : 114
FLA : 21
Analysis & Prediction
Sucky stadium, sucky teams, sucky matchups. All the makings of a barn burner! Who knows how Florida shows up. This game is going to be really ugly. East Carolina has a terrible pass defense. Lucky for them, Florida matches with a terrible pass offense. Florida will have problems moving the ball due the fact that they suck. ECU will have problems moving the ball due to the fact that Florida's defense does not suck. Who knows? Somehow I just see Florida losing.
EAST CAROLINA 16 - FLORIDA 13
Overall
TENN - 43
IOWA - 55
When TENNESSEE Has the Ball
TENN Run O : 50
IOWA Run D : 24
TENN Pass O : 47
IOWA Pass D : 65
When IOWA Has the Ball
IOWA Run O : 102
TENN Run D : 22
IOWA Pass O : 55
TENN Pass D : 13
Special Teams
TENN : 27
IOWA : 95
Analysis & Prediction
Iowa stinks. Tennessee has some young talent at RB/WR and a bad OL with QB who seems to have talent but has not performed well against good defenses who have prepped for him. You have to think Tennessee will have to throw the football to win, and that they will do that just enough and shut down Iowa's poor offense.
TENNESSEE 24 - IOWA 13
BIRMINGHAM BOWL - FLORIDA VS EAST CAROLINA
Overall
FLA - 41
ECU - 58
When FLORIDA Has the Ball
FLA Run O : 71
ECU Run D : 45
FLA Pass O : 90
ECU Pass D : 113
When EAST CAROLINA Has the Ball
ECU Run O : 44
FLA Run D : 16
ECU Pass O : 48
FLA Pass D : 12
Special Teams
ECU : 114
FLA : 21
Analysis & Prediction
Sucky stadium, sucky teams, sucky matchups. All the makings of a barn burner! Who knows how Florida shows up. This game is going to be really ugly. East Carolina has a terrible pass defense. Lucky for them, Florida matches with a terrible pass offense. Florida will have problems moving the ball due the fact that they suck. ECU will have problems moving the ball due to the fact that Florida's defense does not suck. Who knows? Somehow I just see Florida losing.
EAST CAROLINA 16 - FLORIDA 13
This post was edited on 12/8/14 at 1:21 pm
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