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"Star ratings don't matter!" (Except they do...)
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:14 am
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:14 am
Of the 32 players picked in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night, this is how they all broke out coming out of high school (per 247 Sports):
5-stars: 7
4-stars: 15
3-stars: 9
2-stars: 0
Non-Ranked: 1
- 22 of 32 players picked in the first round were former blue-chippers.
- A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was nine times more likely to go in the first round than a 4-star recruit.
- A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was 85 times more likely to go in the first round than a 3-star recruit.
5-stars: 7
4-stars: 15
3-stars: 9
2-stars: 0
Non-Ranked: 1
- 22 of 32 players picked in the first round were former blue-chippers.
- A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was nine times more likely to go in the first round than a 4-star recruit.
- A 5-star recruit coming out of high school was 85 times more likely to go in the first round than a 3-star recruit.
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Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:17 am to RollTide1987
Yep. It’s so funny when people say recruiting rankings don’t matter.
Sure, there are some low ranked guys who turn out being really good and vice versa, but to deny that there is a correlation is insane
Sure, there are some low ranked guys who turn out being really good and vice versa, but to deny that there is a correlation is insane
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:18 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Non-Ranked: 1
Curious who this was. I'm guessing the DB from Toledo.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:24 am to Lucado
Verse from FSU
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:28 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
Sure, there are some low ranked guys who turn out being really good and vice versa, but to deny that there is a correlation is insane
Most fans who deny the correlation are fans of teams who rarely (if ever) sign Top 10 classes. Here's another truth that is inconvenient for them: you have to go back to the 2000 Oklahoma Sooners to find a team that won a national championship without at least one Top 10 recruiting class on its roster.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:28 am to RollTide1987
That is what Auburn fans have said for years.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:31 am to RollTide1987
Good data. Imo offensive linemen are the easiest to predict to the pros. Somebody like Latham and Amarius Mims have been first round picks since the frigging 11th grade. They're just too big and too purtty. It's been that way at Alabama for a while now and been that way at Georgia for the last 4 or 5 years.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:58 am to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
Good data. Imo offensive linemen are the easiest to predict to the pros. Somebody like Latham and Amarius Mims have been first round picks since the frigging 11th grade. They're just too big and too purtty. It's been that way at Alabama for a while now and been that way at Georgia for the last 4 or 5 years.
It's not just automatic. You aren't going in the first round because of your high school press clippings.
At one time, Alabama’s five-star recruits were picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school were selected at a 17 percent clip. That's more than double the NFL 1st round success of 5 stars.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:06 am to bamameister
quote:
It's not just automatic. You aren't going in the first round because of your high school press clippings.
At one time, Alabama’s five-star recruits were picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school were selected at a 17 percent clip. That's more than double the NFL 1st round success of 5 stars.
An offensive lineman who's one of the top 10 overall players in his recruiting class pretty much is automatic. It's not press clippings. It's a body type and athletic skill set (basically quick feet). Amarius Mims had a 7 foot wingspan and ran like a tight end in the 11th grade.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 10:08 am
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:20 am to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
An offensive lineman who's one of the top 10 overall players in his recruiting class pretty much is automatic. It's not press clippings. It's a body type and athletic skill set (basically quick feet). Amarius Mims had a 7 foot wingspan and ran like a tight end in the 11th grade.
BETA Page
We've had 5-star offensive linemen never get off the bench here. It just doesn't happen as often in Tuscaloosa as in other places.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:27 am to bamameister
All schools can’t afford or won’t pay for the players, but their fans still prefer winning.
I root for one of those, and hopefully that’s changing as Arkansas might wake up the Tyson/Hunt/Walton money.
If they do…I’ll be happier. I don’t think any rational person thinks that starting with bettter players than your opponent doesn’t give you a huge leg up.
I root for one of those, and hopefully that’s changing as Arkansas might wake up the Tyson/Hunt/Walton money.
If they do…I’ll be happier. I don’t think any rational person thinks that starting with bettter players than your opponent doesn’t give you a huge leg up.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:30 am to RollTide1987
NFL loves traits. 6 of next years top 10 prospects are 5*’s. Other 4 were highly recruited 4*’s. Interesting enough, Prime has top two prospects in Hunter (no surprise) & Shedeur (early betting favorite on DraftKings to go #1). That’s going to help his recruiting for sure.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:31 am to RollTide1987
Id bet a coca cola that the number of 5 star recruits who do not get drafted is way less than 3 stars who do....even adjusted for the disparity in numbers between the 2. It is entirely possible that a 5 star will be a bust....happens all the time...but overall it does indeed matter. Really makes a difference in college football and overall program success. Still have to coach them up but it makes a difference
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:34 am to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
An offensive lineman who's one of the top 10 overall players in his recruiting class pretty much is automatic. It's not press clippings. It's a body type and athletic skill set (basically quick feet). Amarius Mims had a 7 foot wingspan and ran like a tight end in the 11th grade.
It makes a difference. Anyone saying otherwise is unaware or just being argumentative. There is always the chance that said lineman will be a head case or something but if it is simple foot speed, size and actual speed its often obvious early in high school. Hard to increase any of those 3 by a lot. It has been done but it is generally due to a lack of development early on instead of increasing such skills
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:52 am to bamameister
quote:
We've had 5-star offensive linemen never get off the bench here. It just doesn't happen as often in Tuscaloosa as in other places.
Do the ones that were top 10 overall next.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:02 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
Yep. It’s so funny when people say recruiting rankings don’t matter.
I haven't heard anyone seriously state this in the last decade+
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:16 am to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
Do the ones that were top 10 overall next.
Love and Brockermeyer were both #1 OT types at one point in their recruitment or another and neither ever saw a meaningful snap in Tuscaloosa.
For the most part however its been almost a sure bet that a 5* OT will start by their second season with most being day one guys even if they have to start at OG to begin with.
For example Proctor needed a year at OG, but was thrown to the wolves due to poor evals by previous OL coaches.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:15 pm to Rzrbackguy
I don't believe the Arkansas boosters are going to put money into football as much as basketball and baseball.
Unless the dummies on the hill make a good hire once Sam is fired this year.
Unless the dummies on the hill make a good hire once Sam is fired this year.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:16 pm to RollTide1987
Hey genius, you proved their point in your post. When people say that, they typically mean star ratings aren’t the end all be all.
Notice how there are more 3 stars and way more 4 stars than 5 stars in the NFL draft. Again, you’re proving their point.
Notice how there are more 3 stars and way more 4 stars than 5 stars in the NFL draft. Again, you’re proving their point.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:18 pm to AwgustaDawg
quote:
Really makes a difference in college football and overall program success. Still have to coach them up but it makes a difference
Of course it makes a difference but is not the end all be all, as evidenced by more 3 stars and 4 stars being drafted than 5 stars and that’s the case pretty much every year.
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