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re: SECW 2015

Posted on 2/6/15 at 3:56 pm to
Posted by Mirthomatic
Member since Feb 2013
4113 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

2009 - TOP < 50%
Points Per Play < Points Per Game

2010 - TOP > 50%
Points Per Play > Points Per Game

2011 - TOP > 50&
Points Per Play = Points Per Game

2012 - TOP > 50%
Points Per Play = Points Per Game

2013 - TOP > 50%
Points Per Play > Points Per Game

2014 - TOP > 50%
Points Per Play > Points Per Game


Come on. That is deliberately gaming the system. There's no rationale that justifies dividing all teams into just two groups. You're essentially saying a team ranked 55th has more in common w/ the 5th team than the 65th team. I know there are problems when you use ordinal ranking, but this just exacerbates the issue.

There is no statistical significance between the an 8th ranking out of 122 and a 10th ranking out of 122.

I can easily point out that the 2009 defense, despite having the worst TOP by a good margin, had the 2nd best PPP+Scoring D ranking.
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
84849 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 3:57 pm to
Texas A&M hasn't beaten LSU in 20 years
Posted by KaiserSoze99
Member since Aug 2011
31669 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 3:58 pm to
quote:

Again, he'll make you guys about the same as you were from 2012-13 but it'll take years before the depth and talent approaches what he had here. Maybe Sumlin lasts that long, maybe he doesn't.

Don't disagree with that at all.

I am simply pointing out that TOP is less significant that people are making it out to be, especially if the problem is scoring too fast and tiring the D. HUNH also tires a D-even worse that TOP issues.
Posted by chilge1
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
12137 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

There's no rationale that justifies dividing all teams into just two groups.


Want to use Yards Per Play and Yards Per Game?

How about Redzone Efficiency since you're so hung up on PPG?
2014: 32 Att. - 16 TD - 9 FG
2009: 41 Att. - 13 TD -20 FG
This post was edited on 2/6/15 at 4:09 pm
Posted by Mirthomatic
Member since Feb 2013
4113 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

They frequently milked the playclock before snapping the ball and rushed on 67% of offensive plays.



You mean they frequently milked the clock and then trotted out the punt team when they failed to make a first down.

The defense did a far better job of getting off the field than the offense did staying on it.
Posted by Mirthomatic
Member since Feb 2013
4113 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Want to use Yards Per Play and Yards Per Game?

How about Redzone Efficiency since you're so hung up on PPG?
2014: 32 Att. - 16 TD - 9 FG
2009: 41 Att. - 13 TD -20 FG


Where do you get that I'm hung up on PPG? That's got nothing to do w/ dividing cfb into two huge lumps.

And why does the ability of the defense to keep an opposing offense out of the redzone (or limit their scoring when they do reach the redzone) have ANYTHING to do w/ the TOP help from the offense?
This post was edited on 2/6/15 at 4:16 pm
Posted by chilge1
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
12137 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 4:17 pm to
You know what, man? I've had enough so I'll just leave it at this.

quote:

Why do you reject what the data are telling you for this specific case, and insist that Chavis's defenses are just like all the others in how they're influenced by TOP?


Because there are 6 years of statistics that indicate otherwise.

With a CHAVIS DEFENSE, there is a direct function regarding whether Yards Per Play and Points Per Play is positively or negatively manifested in Total Yards and Scoring Defense as it pertains to Time of Possession.

Simply put, being over 30:00 in Time of Possession positively affects Total Defense and Scoring Defense, while being under 30:00 in Time of Possession negatively affects Total Defense and Scoring Defense.

Good luck in 2015.
Posted by chilge1
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
12137 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

2014: 9th - 2
2013: 57th - 5
2012: 46th - 3
2011: 26th - 1
2010: 57th - 4
2009: 107th - 6


quote:

Mirthomatic

quote:

I prefer to use scoring D, which ranked as follows
This post was edited on 2/6/15 at 4:21 pm
Posted by Mirthomatic
Member since Feb 2013
4113 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 4:20 pm to
Haha, OK man, good luck to you, too.
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