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S&P Advanced Stats : 11/19 and Rivalry Game Odds and Score Picks
Posted on 11/15/16 at 8:44 am
Posted on 11/15/16 at 8:44 am
First, the SEC games this week
#6 LSU vs #17 Florida
LSU 27-17 (73% to win)
#31 Tennessee vs #62 Missouri
Tennessee 36-25 (74% chance to win)
#67 Mississippi St vs #51 Arkansas
Arkansas 31-29 (55% chance to win)
#95 Vanderbilt vs #20 Ole Miss
Ole Miss 38-21 (83% chance to win)
Rivalry Week Games
#1 Alabama vs #9 Auburn
Alabama 35-16 (86% chance to win)
#67 Mississippi St vs #20 Ole Miss
Ole Miss 40-25 (81% chance to win)
#21 Texas A&M vs #6 LSU
LSU 30-24 (64% chance to win)
#95 Vanderbilt vs #31 Tennessee
Tennessee 34-20 (78% chance to win)
#62 Missouri vs #51 Arkansas
Arkansas 31-30 (52% chance to win)
#65 Georgia vs #55 Georgia Tech
Tie 27-27 (50% chance to win)
#4 Louisville vs #75 Kentucky
Louisville 50-12 (99% chance to win)
#5 Clemson vs #90 South Carolina
Clemson 43-7 (98% chance to win)
#11 Florida State vs #17 Florida
Florida State 29-22 (65% chance to win)
#6 LSU vs #17 Florida
LSU 27-17 (73% to win)
#31 Tennessee vs #62 Missouri
Tennessee 36-25 (74% chance to win)
#67 Mississippi St vs #51 Arkansas
Arkansas 31-29 (55% chance to win)
#95 Vanderbilt vs #20 Ole Miss
Ole Miss 38-21 (83% chance to win)
Rivalry Week Games
#1 Alabama vs #9 Auburn
Alabama 35-16 (86% chance to win)
#67 Mississippi St vs #20 Ole Miss
Ole Miss 40-25 (81% chance to win)
#21 Texas A&M vs #6 LSU
LSU 30-24 (64% chance to win)
#95 Vanderbilt vs #31 Tennessee
Tennessee 34-20 (78% chance to win)
#62 Missouri vs #51 Arkansas
Arkansas 31-30 (52% chance to win)
#65 Georgia vs #55 Georgia Tech
Tie 27-27 (50% chance to win)
#4 Louisville vs #75 Kentucky
Louisville 50-12 (99% chance to win)
#5 Clemson vs #90 South Carolina
Clemson 43-7 (98% chance to win)
#11 Florida State vs #17 Florida
Florida State 29-22 (65% chance to win)
7
Posted on 11/15/16 at 8:46 am to Triple Daves
quote:
Arkansas 31-29 (55% chance to win)
Does Miss. St not have a RB
Posted on 11/15/16 at 9:05 am to Triple Daves
Do they have any advanced stats on Alabama'a matchup with Chattanooga? Just curious.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 9:11 am to CapstoneGrad06
quote:
Do they have any advanced stats on Alabama'a matchup with Chattanooga? Just curious.
They don't keep them on 1AA teams. However, Massey has predictions as they rank all levels on one big ranking (Sagarin too).
Sagarin - #1 Alabama vs #105 Chattanooga
Alabama 50 - Chattanooga 3
Massey - #1 Alabama vs #114 Chattanooga
Alabama 48 - Chattanooga 3
Both rank Chattanooga higher than Kent State FYI
This post was edited on 11/15/16 at 9:12 am
Posted on 11/15/16 at 9:35 am to Triple Daves
Posted on 11/15/16 at 9:38 am to Triple Daves
LSU is #6? 
Posted on 11/15/16 at 9:39 am to Tigerbait8
quote:
LSU is #6?
Per the S&P rankings, yes
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:23 am to Triple Daves
quote:
#67 Mississippi St vs #51 Arkansas
Arkansas 31-29 (55% chance to win)
#62 Missouri vs #51 Arkansas
Arkansas 31-30 (52% chance to win)
This is also a little strange to me. I feel much better about the Mizzou game than the Mississippi State game.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:31 am to rockiee
Yeah, that doesn't make a ton of sense.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:39 am to rockiee
quote:
This is also a little strange to me. I feel much better about the Mizzou game than the Mississippi State game.
Here is my guess
Arkansas passing offense : 19th
Mississippi St passing defense : 113th
Arkansas' biggest issue with passing is keeping Allen clean, right?
Arkansas Adjusted Sack Rate Offense : 73rd
Mississippi St Adjusted Sack Rate Defense : 97th
So, basically, Arkansas is going to throw for 500 yards.
So, Arkansas will throw at will and State will run at will. Missouri is similar. Really bad pass defense, not great sack rates.
This post was edited on 11/15/16 at 10:41 am
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:44 am to Triple Daves
quote:
So, Arkansas will throw at will and State will run at will. Missouri is similar. Really bad pass defense, not great sack rates.
I mean I don't really have a problem with the predictions just believe the Mizzou game should be a little higher in our favor. The Miss. St one makes sense to me though.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 10:45 am to rockiee
For some reason computers have, in my opinion, overrated Missouri all year. I don't know exactly why, but they seem to be much higher than my eye would put them.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 11:00 am to Triple Daves
quote:
For some reason computers have, in my opinion, overrated Missouri all year. I don't know exactly why, but they seem to be much higher than my eye would put them.
Ya, seems like that happens every year. If I remember correctly, the S&P loved us last year. They haven't ever really liked us this year but most of it was warranted.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 11:13 am to rockiee
quote:
Ya, seems like that happens every year. If I remember correctly, the S&P loved us last year. They haven't ever really liked us this year but most of it was warranted.
It has to have something to do with a style of play or something, I don't know the details of all of it enough to know.
My favorite was Arkansas in 2014. 7-6 and ranked #5.
However, at least that team you can kind of see why. OT loss to A&M, 1 pt loss to Bama, 7 pt loss to UGA, 7 pt loss at #1 MSU, 7 pt loss at #17 Mizzou.......pounding of LSU, pounding of Ole Miss, pounding of Texas.
This post was edited on 11/15/16 at 11:15 am
Posted on 11/15/16 at 11:16 am to Triple Daves
quote:
My favorite was Arkansas in 2014. 7-6 and ranked #5.
That was pretty ridiculous
To end the year we were probably a top 25 team with how we finished though
Posted on 11/15/16 at 11:17 am to Triple Daves
quote:
#21 Texas A&M vs #6 LSU
LSU 30-24 (64% chance to win)
quote:
11/19 and Rivalry Game Odds
#Rivalry
Posted on 11/15/16 at 11:18 am to Triple Daves
quote:
#95 Vanderbilt vs #20 Ole Miss
Ole Miss 38-21 (83% chance to win)
Upset alert here.
Patterson going on the road in his second start, Vandy's D is probably better than aTm right now, OM can't stop the run to save their life, and Vandy can run the ball a little.
IMO, stats aside the game has the potential to be very interesting.
Posted on 11/15/16 at 12:19 pm to JustGetItRight
It could be. However, Patterson went on the road in his first start, against 105k, not 20k. Our defense finally played with a little life last week, and isn't Webb not fully healthy?
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