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RPI Wizard Scenarios for Bubble Teams
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:37 pm
RPI Wizard Simulator
2 scenarios for each team and where that would land their RPI per RPI Wizard ("worst" and "best", reasonably, so not your team winning all or losing all, but more of a ceiling and a floor)
LSU
WORST SCENARIO
@ Auburn - W
vs Miss St - W
@ USCe - L
vs A&M - L
vs Bama - W
@ Tennessee - W
@ Arkansas - L
vs Florida - L
vs Mizzou - W
@ Kentucky - L
SECT - Georgia - W
SECT - Kentucky - L
19-14 (11-7), RPI 83
BEST SCENARIO
@ Auburn - W
vs Miss St - W
@ USCe - L
vs A&M - W
vs Bama - W
@ Tennessee - W
@ Arkansas - W
vs Florida - W
vs Mizzou - W
@ Kentucky - L
SECT - Auburn - W
SECT - Ole Miss - W
SECT - Texas A&M - L
23-11 (14-4), RPI 43
VANDERBILT
WORST SCENARIO
VS A&M - L
@ Ole Miss - L
vs Missouri - W
@ Auburn - L
vs State - W
vs UGA - W
@ Fla - L
vs Kentucky - L
@ Tennessee - W
@ A&M - L
SECT - State - W
SECT - Florida - L
17-16 (8-10), RPI 82
BEST SCENARIO
VS A&M - W
@ Ole Miss - W
vs Missouri - W
@ Auburn - W
vs State - W
vs UGA - W
@ Fla - L
vs Kentucky - W
@ Tennessee - W
@ A&M - L
SECT - Ole Miss - W
SECT - Kentucky - L
21-12 (12-6), RPI 37
ALABAMA
WORST SCENARIO
@ State - L
vs Missouri - W
vs A&M - L
@ Florida - L
@ LSU - L
vs State - W
@ Kentucky - L
vs Auburn - W
vs Arkansas - W
@ Georgia - L
SECT - State - W
SECT - LSU - L
16-16 (6-12), RPI 93
BEST SCENARIO
@ State - W
vs Missouri - W
vs A&M - W
@ Florida - L
@ LSU - L
vs State - W
@ Kentucky - L
vs Auburn - W
vs Arkansas - W
@ Georgia - W
SECT - Ole Miss - W
SECT - Florida - L
19-13 (9-9), RPI 51
2 scenarios for each team and where that would land their RPI per RPI Wizard ("worst" and "best", reasonably, so not your team winning all or losing all, but more of a ceiling and a floor)
LSU
WORST SCENARIO
@ Auburn - W
vs Miss St - W
@ USCe - L
vs A&M - L
vs Bama - W
@ Tennessee - W
@ Arkansas - L
vs Florida - L
vs Mizzou - W
@ Kentucky - L
SECT - Georgia - W
SECT - Kentucky - L
19-14 (11-7), RPI 83
BEST SCENARIO
@ Auburn - W
vs Miss St - W
@ USCe - L
vs A&M - W
vs Bama - W
@ Tennessee - W
@ Arkansas - W
vs Florida - W
vs Mizzou - W
@ Kentucky - L
SECT - Auburn - W
SECT - Ole Miss - W
SECT - Texas A&M - L
23-11 (14-4), RPI 43
VANDERBILT
WORST SCENARIO
VS A&M - L
@ Ole Miss - L
vs Missouri - W
@ Auburn - L
vs State - W
vs UGA - W
@ Fla - L
vs Kentucky - L
@ Tennessee - W
@ A&M - L
SECT - State - W
SECT - Florida - L
17-16 (8-10), RPI 82
BEST SCENARIO
VS A&M - W
@ Ole Miss - W
vs Missouri - W
@ Auburn - W
vs State - W
vs UGA - W
@ Fla - L
vs Kentucky - W
@ Tennessee - W
@ A&M - L
SECT - Ole Miss - W
SECT - Kentucky - L
21-12 (12-6), RPI 37
ALABAMA
WORST SCENARIO
@ State - L
vs Missouri - W
vs A&M - L
@ Florida - L
@ LSU - L
vs State - W
@ Kentucky - L
vs Auburn - W
vs Arkansas - W
@ Georgia - L
SECT - State - W
SECT - LSU - L
16-16 (6-12), RPI 93
BEST SCENARIO
@ State - W
vs Missouri - W
vs A&M - W
@ Florida - L
@ LSU - L
vs State - W
@ Kentucky - L
vs Auburn - W
vs Arkansas - W
@ Georgia - W
SECT - Ole Miss - W
SECT - Florida - L
19-13 (9-9), RPI 51
5
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:39 pm to Cheeky Fellow
quote:
LSU
WORST SCENARIO
quote:
@ USCe - L
quote:
BEST SCENARIO
quote:
@ USCe - L
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:40 pm to BayouBengals03
I think it is possible LSU wins in Columbia, but I think it would be pretty difficult. They are really good there.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:31 pm to Cheeky Fellow
Split the difference, 21 wins, 60ish Rpi, I think we go dancing!!
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:33 pm to PurpleandGeauld
Also, something wrong with one of the LSU ones. Total games on one is 33, total on the other is 34.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:35 pm to PurpleandGeauld
quote:
Also, something wrong with one of the LSU ones. Total games on one is 33, total on the other is 34.
That's how conference tournaments work. If you win, you get another game.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:35 pm to PurpleandGeauld
quote:
Total games on one is 33, total on the other is 34.
I think in one I had them playing 3 SECT games, the other losing their 2nd one, that is the reason for the difference.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:36 pm to Cheeky Fellow
quote:
ALABAMA
quote:
BEST SCENARIO
quote:
19-13 (9-9), RPI 51
This post was edited on 2/1/16 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:36 pm to Cheeky Fellow
See that now, my bad =)
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:39 pm to Cheeky Fellow
I think we split USCe and Aggie, split Arky and Tenn, and Lose to UK. Finish 13-5 in SEC. Think we win 1 game in tourny and lose a close one similar to OU in the 2nd round. Should be enough to get in.
Although dropping one to Auburn or MSU wouldn't be shocking either
Although dropping one to Auburn or MSU wouldn't be shocking either
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:40 pm to Cheeky Fellow
quote:
I think it is possible LSU wins in Columbia, but I think it would be pretty difficult. They are really good there
LSU has been pretty sketchy on the road. I can't see them winning at USC or Arkansas.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:40 pm to genro
quote:
genro
Next 2 games are huge. If we win them, we are at least in the picture starting with the A&M game. If we lost at State, all that is out the window.
Still a long way to go, but our OOC wins and overall schedule gave us a shot. The LSU and Oregon losses are backbreaking though. SOAB.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:44 pm to Cheeky Fellow
quote:
South Carolina
Expected Record:
23-7
That Dustin Johnson poster guy better stick to his word...
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:49 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
That Dustin Johnson poster guy better stick to his word...
Warren Nolan actually has their expected record at 25-5
South Carolina Best Case
@ UGA W, @ A&M L, vs LSU W, vs UK W, @ MZ W, vs FLA W, vs TN W, @ MSU W, vs UGA W, @ ARK W, 2-1 Tourney
29-4 (13-3) RPI 17th
South Carolina Worst Case
@ UGA L, @ A&M L, vs LSU L, vs UK L, @ MZ W, vs FLA L, vs TN W, @ MSU W, vs UGA W, @ ARK L, 0-1 Tourney
22-9 (8-8) RPI 74th
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:52 pm to Cheeky Fellow
Georgia could be interesting as well
GEORGIA - BEST CASE
vs USC (W)
vs Auburn (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ Miss St (W)
vs Florida (W)
@ Vandy (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs Ole Miss (W)
@ USC (L)
vs Alabama (W)
SECT : vs TN (W)
SECT : vs USCe (L)
19-12, RPI 50
GEORGIA - BEST CASE
vs USC (W)
vs Auburn (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ Miss St (W)
vs Florida (W)
@ Vandy (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs Ole Miss (W)
@ USC (L)
vs Alabama (W)
SECT : vs TN (W)
SECT : vs USCe (L)
19-12, RPI 50
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:53 pm to Cheeky Fellow
So, in conclusion : Georgia, Arkansas and Alabama are hanging on by a thread. They don't have to win out to get in, but they have the least amount of cushion for bad losses. Another bad loss by any of them and they are probably done. However, UGA and Alabama don't have to win @ UK or @ A&M to secure a bid. They need to pick off 1 or 2, but they really need to win all the toss up and winnable games. Arkansas, because of pure wins and losses, probably needs to come close to winning out, but their schedule left is the easiest.
Ole Miss' RPI is just too bad I think.
Ole Miss' RPI is just too bad I think.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 7:06 am to BayouBengals03
I was surprised myself.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 7:58 am to Cheeky Fellow
good thread.
I pretty much agree with your evals. I do think LSU can win at USC. LSU has tended to do well in games where they aren't supposed to win. I'm most worried about the @Auburn tonight to be honest. Total back breaker if we lose and I could easily see it happening. Still think we have a legit chance at getting to 14 conference wins, which would be huge.
Also think we have a great chance against A&M at home.
I pretty much agree with your evals. I do think LSU can win at USC. LSU has tended to do well in games where they aren't supposed to win. I'm most worried about the @Auburn tonight to be honest. Total back breaker if we lose and I could easily see it happening. Still think we have a legit chance at getting to 14 conference wins, which would be huge.
Also think we have a great chance against A&M at home.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 8:00 am
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