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re: Predicting week 6 based off of scoring offense/defense in relation to opponents
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:46 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:46 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Solid work. Now if only you had been a SAMS grad...
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Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:46 pm to Wolfhound45
quote:
Now if only you had been a SAMS grad
Hell no. I wanted no part of that. Still got basically stuck at Corps for 3 years before I finally got a KD job.
This post was edited on 9/28/14 at 11:48 pm
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:49 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Still got basically stuck at Corps for 3 years...
From a guy who did CGSC in Aghanistan by box of books and ain't no way anyone would have given me a shot at SAMS.
Seriously though, good model.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 1:25 am to CGSC Lobotomy
This will be totally accurate
Posted on 9/29/14 at 1:43 am to TxTiger82
quote:
Worse, your information mostly comes from games against low quality opponents, and you are using it to predict performance against high quality opponents.
Not only that, where does the model allow for substitutions? Using MSU for example. Several games, Dak did not play but 2 to 2.5 quarters. Most games the defense was being massively subbed out.
This model does not account for that. Thus the mistake people made with MSU vs LSU.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:00 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
With that, here are the models by team:
Alabama: Ole Miss 24, Alabama 20 (Tossup)
Auburn: Auburn 28, LSU 25 (Tossup)
Georgia: Georgia 49, Vanderbilt 10 (Blowout)
Kentucky: Kentucky 35, South Carolina 21 (Win)
LSU: LSU 32, Auburn 24 (Tossup)
Mississippi State: Tied at 32 (Tossup)
Ole Miss: Alabama 25, Ole Miss 24 (Tossup)
South Carolina: Kentucky 26, South Carolina 25 (Tossup)
Texas A&M: A&M 40, Mississippi State 27 (Win)
Vanderbilt: Georgia 46, Vanderbilt 18 (Blowout)
This predicts a Georgia blowout, a greater than 50% likelihood of a Kentucky win, a greater than 50% likelihood of an A&M win, and two REALLY close games.
Just a FWIW...comparing above predictions with the opening lines...
Georgia’s giving 32.5 against Vanderbilt.
Kentucky is getting 10 against South Carolina.
Auburn is favored by 8.5 over LSU.
Tennessee is a one-point underdog against Florida.
Alabama is giving 4 against Ole Miss.
And Texas A&M is favored by a point against Mississippi State.
LINK
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:05 am to TxTiger82
quote:
But it aggregates information across games when all teams have not played equivalent schedules. You haven't "controlled" for the strength of those opponents.
Yep, I can see it working if all teams had played the same no. of weak opponents but since they haven't I agree their needs to be some adjustment for SoS.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:08 am to darkhorse
quote:
This model does not account for that.
It's a freaking model a guy built to put on a message board. It won't account for every fricking thing.
OP, solid analysis. Will be interesting to see how it compares to reality.
This post was edited on 9/29/14 at 8:28 am
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:11 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
LSU averages 15.7 more than their opponents allow and allows 18 less than their opponents score.
WE DA BEST!!
Posted on 9/29/14 at 9:37 am to dallasga6
quote:
Just a FWIW...comparing above predictions with the opening lines...
South Carolina was favored over A&M by 11...
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