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re: Poll: is ole miss a good team or not?
Posted on 9/24/14 at 11:46 pm to KSGamecock
Posted on 9/24/14 at 11:46 pm to KSGamecock
quote:
Not...but they will still crush y'all.
Awesome insight and justification. Post more
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Posted on 9/24/14 at 11:50 pm to BayouBengals03
Of course you think that. You're an LSU fan. OM will be at worst a three point dog in DV.
They have a chance against everyone because they have a big play offense and a good defense. If Bo doesn't throw picks and Freeze doesn't go full retard play calling like he does in stretches then they win at least 4.
They have a chance against everyone because they have a big play offense and a good defense. If Bo doesn't throw picks and Freeze doesn't go full retard play calling like he does in stretches then they win at least 4.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 11:51 pm to Ping Pong
quote:
They are as good as they have ever been. So they're not very good
27-24
Posted on 9/24/14 at 11:53 pm to johnzorback
quote:
they are looking better than bama if that means anything.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 11:59 pm to BayouBengals03
We're more likely to beat LSU than those others you listed (other than Tenn)
Order of likelihood of victory for OM (from greatest chance of winning to lowest), with % chance of OM win:
Tenn 70% > MSU (must play at Ole Miss) 60% > LSU 55% > ARKY 50% > A&M 45% > Auburn 35% > Alabama 30%
ETA % chance of OM victory (after each game, % will be adjusted for future games based on play and injuries.
ETA2 If my percentages are correct is between an 8 and 9 win team, not counting bowl.
Order of likelihood of victory for OM (from greatest chance of winning to lowest), with % chance of OM win:
Tenn 70% > MSU (must play at Ole Miss) 60% > LSU 55% > ARKY 50% > A&M 45% > Auburn 35% > Alabama 30%
ETA % chance of OM victory (after each game, % will be adjusted for future games based on play and injuries.
ETA2 If my percentages are correct is between an 8 and 9 win team, not counting bowl.
This post was edited on 9/25/14 at 12:08 am
Posted on 9/25/14 at 12:05 am to narddogg81
We'll know in 2 weeks.
They haven't accomplished anything worth a damn on the field as of yet.
They haven't accomplished anything worth a damn on the field as of yet.
Posted on 9/25/14 at 12:06 am to YouDontKnowBro
quote:
Can't wait to troll when we beat Bama.
Of course you can wait, ya'll have been waiting 11 years now since the last time ya'll managed to do that.
Posted on 9/25/14 at 12:15 am to IAmReality
I think the last time ole miss best Alabama, everyone had dial up internet or was just changing to broadband/DSL
Posted on 9/25/14 at 12:25 am to DMagic
quote:
Of course you think that. You're an LSU fan. OM will be at worst a three point dog in DV.
Yeah. I think the favored team will win.
Posted on 9/25/14 at 12:26 am to Chawboy
You realize there are actual probabilities out there based on on the field results/statistics thus far?
Here's what the ESPN FPI says:
LINK
The percentage below each team is the percent chance they give OM to beat each team. This is based on like 10,000 simulations of their program.
Sat, Sept 27
vs Memphis
87.7% 7.2 (50) --
Sat, Oct 4
vs #3 Alabama
49.0% 26.0 (1) --
Sat, Oct 11
@ #6 Texas A&M
35.0% 25.6 (2) --
Sat, Oct 18
vs Tennessee
86.4% 8.2 (44) --
Sat, Oct 25
@ #17 LSU
51.7% 18.8 (12) --
Sat, Nov 1
vs #5 Auburn
50.1% 25.6 (3) --
Sat, Nov 8
vs Presbyterian
99.9% -- --
Sat, Nov 22
@ Arkansas
56.4% 16.9 (20) --
Sat, Nov 29
vs #14 Mississippi State
66.3% 18.9 (11)
As you can see, OM has a 49% chance to beat Alabama as Alabama has only a 51% probability of beating OM according to ESPN. The only other team OM is projected to lose to is Texas AM at 35% probability for OM to win.
So in your format, it's Tenn 86.4% > MSU (must play at Ole Miss) 66.3% > ARKY 56.4% > LSU 51.7% > Auburn 50.1% > Alabama 49% > A&M 35%
Here's what the ESPN FPI says:
LINK
The percentage below each team is the percent chance they give OM to beat each team. This is based on like 10,000 simulations of their program.
Sat, Sept 27
vs Memphis
87.7% 7.2 (50) --
Sat, Oct 4
vs #3 Alabama
49.0% 26.0 (1) --
Sat, Oct 11
@ #6 Texas A&M
35.0% 25.6 (2) --
Sat, Oct 18
vs Tennessee
86.4% 8.2 (44) --
Sat, Oct 25
@ #17 LSU
51.7% 18.8 (12) --
Sat, Nov 1
vs #5 Auburn
50.1% 25.6 (3) --
Sat, Nov 8
vs Presbyterian
99.9% -- --
Sat, Nov 22
@ Arkansas
56.4% 16.9 (20) --
Sat, Nov 29
vs #14 Mississippi State
66.3% 18.9 (11)
As you can see, OM has a 49% chance to beat Alabama as Alabama has only a 51% probability of beating OM according to ESPN. The only other team OM is projected to lose to is Texas AM at 35% probability for OM to win.
So in your format, it's Tenn 86.4% > MSU (must play at Ole Miss) 66.3% > ARKY 56.4% > LSU 51.7% > Auburn 50.1% > Alabama 49% > A&M 35%
This post was edited on 9/25/14 at 12:30 am
Posted on 9/25/14 at 12:28 am to narddogg81
Yes.
Whether they'll parlay their acumen into success in the SEC West this year is another matter entirely. And that sentiment goes for the rest of the West teams, too.
Whether they'll parlay their acumen into success in the SEC West this year is another matter entirely. And that sentiment goes for the rest of the West teams, too.
Posted on 9/25/14 at 12:28 am to Chawboy
quote:
Tenn 70%
Probably more like 75%
quote:
MSU 60%
Probably, given being at home.
quote:
LSU 55%
Away game. Won't be favored. More like 45%
quote:
ARKY 50%
About right I guess.
quote:
A&M 45%
On the road, probably a good bit lower than that.
quote:
Auburn 35%
At home, probably a good bit higher than that.
quote:
Alabama 30%
I'd say 25%, but not bad.
Posted on 9/25/14 at 12:28 am to SECRantLurker123
quote:
As you can see, OM has a 49% chance to beat Alabama as Alabama has only a 51% probability of beating OM according to ESPN.
That right there proves this probability model is not good at its job.
Posted on 9/25/14 at 12:28 am to narddogg81
Tbd
Posted on 9/25/14 at 1:29 am to SECRantLurker123
quote:
You realize there are actual probabilities out there based on on the field results/statistics thus far?
Here's what the ESPN FPI says:
No computer rankings should be given real consideration for accuracy before there are at least 4 games played among all teams. It's much too early to derive very much from the data on the season and the odds are very high that ESPN is still using last years data to provide a somewhat meaningful result.
Posted on 9/25/14 at 2:30 am to BoCam2
quote:
If they beat bama, then they are decent. If they lose to bama, then they are overrated and still just ole miss
This guy gets it.
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