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Odds to reach finals / win CWS

Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:47 am
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50208 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:47 am
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
38741 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:52 am to
Really working the idea of easier bracket for UL

Posted by bigDgator
Dallas, TX
Member since Oct 2008
41163 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:52 am to
Kind of refreshing not to have any pressure. 2 and Q is what I expect.
Posted by Aggie_2463
College station, tx
Member since Jul 2013
602 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:54 am to
I also expect 2 & Q, one of us will be wrong
Posted by boXerrumble
Member since Sep 2011
52279 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:54 am to
Yep. Bats aren't consistent enough.
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50208 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:54 am to
Is that why the UL side of the bracket has a higher chance of winning it all?
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50208 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:55 am to
Let's both be wrong and meet in the winners bracket.
Posted by Sasquatch Smash
Member since Nov 2007
23979 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:57 am to
Is this another of those Yale things?

Their formula really hates Florida. Didn't they have Wake Forest as the favorite in the Super?
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
38741 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 10:06 am to
I thought Florida would be higher
Posted by Vecchio Cane
Ivory Tower
Member since Jul 2016
17722 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 10:07 am to
I think these odds just show that 1 side of the bracket is far stronger.

OSU and LSU are head and shoulders above everybody else, imo.

Did they re-seed teams when they got to Omaha in the past?
Posted by Hugh McElroy
Member since Sep 2013
17330 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 10:26 am to
quote:

I think these odds just show that 1 side of the bracket is far stronger


I wouldn't say that these odds show the Louisville/TCU/UF/A&M side of the bracket to be FAR stronger - just moderately stronger.


According to these numbers, that side of the bracket has 57.4% chance of winning.
This post was edited on 6/15/17 at 10:29 am
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
38741 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 10:41 am to
Assumed that prorata OSU and LSU final win odds were primarily lower due to lower chance of clearing through to final

I was wrong it looks like UL is the favorite outright
Posted by The Balinese Club
Coastal Bend Area of Texas
Member since Jul 2011
2797 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 10:46 am to
How the hell does A&M have higher odds than Florida or CSF?

We haven't won a CWS game in 25 years, and have only won 2 CWS games all time. Florida has been to the CWS a lot recently and has a damn good team.

I'd love for my Aggies to buck this trend, but the reality is that we will probably go 0-2.

I'm just saying, these odds are bullshite.
Posted by Kentucker
Cincinnati, KY
Member since Apr 2013
19351 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 10:50 am to
If UL, or FSU, wins that would have the ACC as defending champions in football, basketball and baseball. Ugh.
Posted by Tigerpaul1969
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Jan 2010
4446 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 10:52 am to
Yes I did not get A&M higher than UF at all. If UFs pitchers show up, they could win the whole thing. TD Ameritrade plays into their hands. Everybody sure loves Louisville. Makes me think they might go 2 and Q.
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
139780 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 10:57 am to
I don't know man. I can't take many more games where we struggle to score. We've put it on the defense way too much this year much like our football and basketball teams.

I would not be shocked at 2 and out.
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50208 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 10:57 am to
Because past performances of players & coaches no longer on the team have zero relevance into the odds of winning this year.
Posted by Realistic Ag
Member since Jun 2014
1894 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 11:23 am to
You could have just gone the route of us having the lowest RPI in the field. Bringing up the past is quite irrelevant for this year.

The odds are we probably would go 0-2 in simulation type analytics. We just need baseball to baseball it up!
Posted by junkfunky
Member since Jan 2011
33856 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 11:31 am to
quote:

I wouldn't say that these odds show the Louisville/TCU/UF/A&M side of the bracket to be FAR stronger - just moderately stronger.
Posted by Jobu93
Cypress TX
Member since Sep 2011
19202 posts
Posted on 6/15/17 at 11:34 am to
Kind of surprised where we fell in here. Listening to Sirius you'd think that we are the Sisters of the Poor this year. Yes, our '15 and '16 teams were much better and yes we barely made the tourney this year because we sucked for the last 3 weeks of the season.

I don't know what to expect with this team, they've won thus far in the post season, and that's more than all save 7 other teams can say.

Baseball is based upon failure, so here's to hoping that we fail less than the other teams.
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