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My hot take: The AU/Arky game
Posted on 10/20/16 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 10/20/16 at 2:47 pm
Location/Schedule
-It's obviously in Auburn, with AU coming off a bye and Arky at the end of a brutal stretch after playing A&M, Bama and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks.
Line/Spread
-AU is a 9 pt favorite, with the over/under being 55.5 points.
-AU is 5-1 ATS and Arky is 3-4 ATS, which seems to suggest AU has been under-rated and Arky over-rated, up to this point in the season.
Stats that explain the spread
-AU ranks 12th in the country in rushing, averaging 262.8 ypg.
-Arky ranks No.80 in rushing defense and the No.120-rated road run defense, allowing 280.5 ypg.
Most important Matchup
AU DL vs Arky OL-It is the backbone and strength of both teams and whichever team wins this battle will win the game.
My take is that I like Auburn to win this game. I feel the DL of Auburn will be too disruptive to contain and Auburn will win the battle of the trenches. I would bet Arky to cover and go against the public by betting the under. My prediction is 30-24 AU.
-It's obviously in Auburn, with AU coming off a bye and Arky at the end of a brutal stretch after playing A&M, Bama and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks.
Line/Spread
-AU is a 9 pt favorite, with the over/under being 55.5 points.
-AU is 5-1 ATS and Arky is 3-4 ATS, which seems to suggest AU has been under-rated and Arky over-rated, up to this point in the season.
Stats that explain the spread
-AU ranks 12th in the country in rushing, averaging 262.8 ypg.
-Arky ranks No.80 in rushing defense and the No.120-rated road run defense, allowing 280.5 ypg.
Most important Matchup
AU DL vs Arky OL-It is the backbone and strength of both teams and whichever team wins this battle will win the game.
My take is that I like Auburn to win this game. I feel the DL of Auburn will be too disruptive to contain and Auburn will win the battle of the trenches. I would bet Arky to cover and go against the public by betting the under. My prediction is 30-24 AU.
10
Posted on 10/20/16 at 2:54 pm to TigerProwl24
quote:AU may or may not win
AU is a 9 pt favorite
but...i mean...i typically don't bet on cfb but this is the most tempted I have been to do so this season
Posted on 10/20/16 at 2:57 pm to TigerProwl24
quote:
I would bet Arky to cover
Agree with you 100%. Great post. Hogs by 4.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 2:57 pm to TigerProwl24
I got $100 on the under
Posted on 10/20/16 at 3:06 pm to ThePoo
quote:
but...i mean...i typically don't bet on cfb but this is the most tempted I have been to do so this season
It's moved back up to 10 on most offshores today around lunchtime. By all means, bet the house the house though if you want to.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 3:41 pm to jsmoove
Auburn is going to win this game. Usually when it seems like a bet the house game, you end up without a house.
Could easily see Au getting a late score and winning by 10-14.
Could easily see Au getting a late score and winning by 10-14.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:30 pm to jsmoove
Yep, saw it moved to -10 now.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:34 pm to TigerProwl24
OL is not our strength, it's the worst position group on the team outside of LB.
If Auburn can't hold us under 60 yards rushing y'all are gonna get boat raced in your own house.
If Auburn can't hold us under 60 yards rushing y'all are gonna get boat raced in your own house.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:36 pm to TigerProwl24
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:37 pm to vengeanceofrain
TCU was a 7.5 fav
Ole Miss was a 8 point fav
soon...
Ole Miss was a 8 point fav
soon...
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:38 pm to CtotheVrzrbck
quote:
If Auburn can't hold us under 60 yards rushing y'all are gonna get boat raced in your own house
??????? allen will have a nice view from his back most of the evening
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:38 pm to TigerProwl24
I think Au wins and covers based on the line.
Otherwise I would expect a close game with Ark possibly winning.
But I would pick AU to cover if I was Betti g.
Otherwise I would expect a close game with Ark possibly winning.
But I would pick AU to cover if I was Betti g.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:40 pm to TigerProwl24
Gus is 5-0 coming off a bye week.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:42 pm to CtotheVrzrbck
I would be more concerned about points scored than how many yards are racked up.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:45 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
Gus is 5-0 coming off a bye week.
2015 - kentucky
2014 - south carolina
2013 - Ole Miss
2012 - North Texas
he's only been a head coach 4 years, not 5.
and that's quite the murders row you got there
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:46 pm to vengeanceofrain
quote:alabama was a 13.5 fav
TCU was a 7.5 fav
Ole Miss was a 8 point fav
soon...
texas a&m was a 5.5 fav
arkansas was a 26 fav over la tech
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:48 pm to vengeanceofrain
quote:
he's only been a head coach 4 years, not 5
He was adding 2016 to his 5-0 stat.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 4:48 pm to vengeanceofrain
quote:technically, auburn had a open week before kansas state in 2014
2015 - kentucky
2014 - south carolina
2013 - Ole Miss
2012 - North Texas
he's only been a head coach 4 years, not 5.
This post was edited on 10/20/16 at 4:49 pm
Posted on 10/20/16 at 5:24 pm to TigerProwl24
OP went through alot of trouble for nothing.
Hogs will win this game not because of just talent, but coaching....
Nice stat work though, but don't quit your day job...
Hogs will win this game not because of just talent, but coaching....
Nice stat work though, but don't quit your day job...
Posted on 10/20/16 at 5:39 pm to CtotheVrzrbck
quote:
OL is not our strength, it's the worst position
Interesting... Tell me, how does that make you feel?
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