Looks like Miss State has a great chance at getting the Citrus Bowl bid

So Citrus Bowl is highest ranked SEC team not in the College Football Playoff or NY6 games, vs the highest ranked Big10 team not in the CFP or NY6 games… let’s look at it, interested to see if y’all think I may be missing something. Here’s the deal.

#1 UGA —> vs Ga Tech (5-6)
#5 LSU —> @ Texas A&M (4-7)
#7 Bama —> vs Auburn (5-6)
#10 Tenn —> @ Vandy (5-6)

So the top 4 SEC teams are all top 10 in the CFP rankings. They all play sub .500 teams in their final games and should all 4 easily come away with a win and remain in the top 10 of the CFP poll which would mean all 4 either get picked for the CFP or NY6 games. This is VERY likely, all 4 being in CFP or NY6. So that means that the #5 team in the SEC will get the Citrus Bowl bid, and there are only 3 teams with an even slight argument or path to finishing 5th in SEC, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and South Carolina

1. Miss State (8-4)(4-4)
2. Ole Miss (8-4)(4-4)
3. South Carolina (7-4)(4-4) —> @ #8 Clemson (10-1)

Miss State- closed the season out with a top 20 road win to finish 8-4 (4-4) against the #1 Strength of Schedule in the country according to ESPN. I think that will put State somewhere in the 18-22 range in the final CFP poll.

Ole Miss- closed the season out losing their last 3 games and 4 of their last 5 tk finish 8-4 (4-4)against the #27 Strength of Schedule according to ESPN. They lost to State at home to end their regular season. They were #20 in the CFP poll before the Egg Bowl loss, they will surely drop out of the CFP top 25 in the final CFP top 25 rankings, there is 0% chance they finish ahead of State so really they have no shot at Citrus and it is really between state and USC if the top 4 SEC teams take care of biz

South Carolina- last weekend they took down a top 5 team in Tennessee and handled them easily to go 7-4 and finish their SEC schedule at (4-4) against the #29 Strength of Schedule in the country according to ESPN. I’m surprised they didn’t not jump into the top 25 after the Tenn upset. They play @ #8 Clemson to close out the season. If they were to upset Clemson they would finish 8-4 (4-4) like State and OM, and there is no doubt that they would be the highest ranked of the 3 after finishing the season with back to back top 10 upsets. With that said, Clemson is a 14.5 point favorite, South Carolina should lose.


So by my calculations. If….

-Georgia (-36.0) beats Georgia Tech
-LSU (-10.0) beats A&M
-Alabama (-22.0) beats Auburn
-Tennessee (-14.0) beats Vandy
-Clemson (-14.5) beats South Carolina

State would be locked into the Citrus Bowl, right? Am I missing something?