re: List the game your team could lose.

Bama
LSU
USCe
Auburn

And no way we lose to aTm!

Uh...

Rutgers is my only fear this season.

The rest are cupcakes!

Are you the one and only openly gay aggie?

LSU

For LSU:

1. Alabama
2. South Carolina
3. @ Arkansas
4. @ Auburn
5. @ Florida
6. @ Texas A&M

A. Hidell - I don't get the photo?

quote:

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We could lose to Arkansas

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Will instead of could and you would be right on track.

For LSU, the games presenting the highest probability of being a loss, with accompanying reasons, are, in order, as follows:

1. South Carolina
A. Coach: Spurrier is probably the best in-game strategist among SEC coaches.

B. QB: Based on his performance in the second half of last year, it looks like they now have a good QB that Spurrier can work with.

C. Lattimore: When healthy, he's an absolute beast and will give their offense balance.

D. Defense: They have a solid defense that, if we're sluggish on offense, can hold us down pretty well.

E. Reputation/ranking: Even if they are undefeated going into this game, they won't be as highly ranked as we are, and they still don't have the name/reputation of Alabama, Florida, etc., raising the possibility that we might be overconfident, especially playing at home.

F. Schedule: This game falls between road trips to Florida and Texas A&M for us, which both may seem like bigger games to us, even if those teams aren't as good or as highly ranked as USC. Whatever the result at Florida, there may be some letdown, and regardless of A&M's record, there may be some looking ahead. It makes this somewhat of a trap game for us. The good news is that this factor balances out for them, too, as they face Georgia at home the week before and travel to Florida the week after.

G. TV: Based on the other SEC games being played that day, this will almost certainly be the 2:30 CBS game (the only other game that comes close is Alabama-Missouri). Historically, our home field advantage has not been as great in day games.

Probability of a loss: 30-35%

2. Arkansas
A. Offense: They still have Wilson, and they get Kniles Davis back, which should give them balance.

B. Intangibles: We always seem to come out flat against Arkansas. This is probably due to a combination of not regarding them as a huge rivalry game and the fact that, by the time we play them, the SEC West race is usually decided either in our favor or against us. This is likely to be the case again this year, so the possibility of coming out flat is again present.

C. Home field: The game is in Fayetteville this year, where they prefer to play instead of Little Rock. They'll have a bigger and more excited crowd than they usually do.

D. Rivalry/revenge factor: Even though LSU doesn't look at this as a huge rivalry game, like it or not, for the Piggies, it's their Super Bowl. They will be bouncing off the walls to avenge last year's blowout loss in Tiger Stadium. Add to this the fact that this is likely to be the last time we play them on Thanksgiving weekend, as A&M will likely replace them as our big season-ending rival, they will want to end this Thanksgiving weekend "rivalry" with a win.

Probability of a loss: 25-30%

3. Alabama
A. Talent level: They are the best team we will play this year, and probably close or equal to us. The only reasons they aren't listed as the highest probability of a loss is that we get them at home and we already have that game circled on the schedule due to the revenge factor from the NCG. We will likely play harder and more motivated against them than in any other game. Nevertheless, because of how good they are, they still rank as the third highest probability of a loss.

B. Defense: Saban makes his bread and butter on trying to fool opposing QBs with his pressure packages, so having a first-year starter may work to our disadvantage. Still, this is less of a factor than the last four years, as our QB this year likely matches up better against their defense than any we have had in that time, and our OL and running game should be better than last year, especially with a credible passing threat, which we didn't have last year.

C. Offense: Alabama should have a very strong offensive line and running game, and McCarron matured well in 2011. They will be a balanced, physical offense, which could present problems for our more speed-based, smaller(-ish) defense.

Probability of a loss: 20-25%

All others
Probability of a loss: <20%