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re: Intellectual minds of the Rant unite to solve one of the great issues of time
Posted on 3/9/17 at 7:02 am to texag7
Posted on 3/9/17 at 7:02 am to texag7
quote:
Conference title - 2 points
Heisman - 2 points
Wins - .1 per
BCS natty - 5 points
Playoff natty (harder than BCS) - 7 points
Does not include "Championship hearts" and "Champions of Life". Miss Dixie and Butch do not approve.
Posted on 3/9/17 at 7:48 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
My challenge, if you choose to accept it, is to create a mathematical system that spits out an end number telling that we can sort and rank and agree to.
I have done this myself. Coming up with a formula is easy. It's deciding on the inputs and their weight that becomes highly contentious.
Here is my formula for Football:
40%: All-time AP Points (1936-2016)
20%: All-time Wins (1869-2016)
20%: All-time Winning Percentage (1869-2016)
20%: All-time National Championships (AP or UPI/Coaches only)
The Controversies:
Many fans don't value the AP in the way that it deserves, so they howl at the 40% value. But the AP Poll is an annual ranking of the programs each and every year, so of course its highly valuable. It also has a built in Strength of Schedule component. That's why a team like Toledo can win 11 games and be lucky to finish #24 or #25 in a season... yet a team like Florida can go 8-5 and still finish in the Top 15. People will also complain it doesn't go back long enough, but I think 1936 is plenty far back.
All-time wins (20%) and all-time winning percentage (20%) will be accused of being redundant, but it isn't. You have to include all-time wins to give credit to those programs who have been around forever. A program like Florida State will get plenty of points in the Winning Percentage department, but there ought to be some factor to penalize them for not existing before the 1950s. Got to give some credit to those programs who were winning in the 1800s, and that's why All-Time Wins must be included.
Championships:
National Titles only. And no fictional titles. This is why major polls from the polling era are the only ones of value. Many people will complain about not including conference titles. But not all conferences are equal, so if you are going to compare programs from different conferences you can't include them.
The Mathematicss:
Here's the deal, ranking teams 1-128 in each category doesn't work. Each ranking spot is worth 1/128th of a point, and sometimes there are larger gaps between groups. For instance with all-time wins: Texas has 891 and Nebraska has 889. They are so statistically close, they are essentially tied. Just ranking Texas #3 in that category and Nebraska #4 in that category doesn't do them justice. Move down just a little bit further, and you find #8 Penn State with 867 wins and #9 Tennessee with 829 wins.... that's a gap of 38 wins between teams right next to each other. You can't have a system that treats the gap between #3 Texas and #4 Nebraska the same as it does #8 Penn State and #9 Tennessee, when those gaps are far different.
To overcome this obstacle, you take the #1 team's totals... in this case Michigan with 935 wins... and divide every other team's total wins by this number. This creates a fraction. Every team is judged by how they compare to the #1 team in each category. So it actually spits out these results:
#1 Michigan- 1.000
#3 Texas- 0.953
#4 Nebraska- 0.951
#8 Penn State- 0.927
#9 Tennessee- 0.887
Now those gaps in performance are properly accounted for... which a simple 1-128 ranking of each category cannot produce.
Do this for each category and then multiply it by the weight each category was given.
Here are the results:
1. Alabama- 0.9763
2. Oklahoma- 0.9113
3. Notre Dame- 0.8988
4. Ohio State- 0.8860
5. Michigan- 0.8120
6. USC- 0.8111
7. Nebraska- 0.7747
8. Texas- 0.7550
9. Penn State- 0.6673
10. Tennessee- 0.6649
11. LSU- 0.6403
12. Miami- 0.5951
13. Auburn- 0.5835
14. Georgia- 0.5775
15. Florida State- 0.5720
16. Florida- 0.5717
17. Michigan State- 0.5186
18. UCLA- 0.5020
19. Clemson- 0.5018
20. Arkansas- 0.4828
21. Texas A&M- 0.4791
22. Washington- 0.4755
23. Georgia Tech- 0.4662
24. Minnesota- 0.4662
25. Pittsburgh- 0.4594
Other SEC:
28. Ole Miss- 0.4290
39. Missouri- 0.3882
56. S. Carolina- 0.3117
62. Kentucky- 0.3007
65. Miss. St.- 0.2954
80. Vanderbilt- 0.2703
FYI- The weakest overall Power 5 program is Iowa State... coming in at #104. Indiana is #98. Vanderbilt at #80 makes them the the 3rd worst Power 5 program.
Posted on 3/9/17 at 7:49 am to BHMKyle
quote:
BHMKyle
Good stuff Kyle. What about basketball? Got anything there?
Posted on 3/9/17 at 7:52 am to SummerOfGeorge
Basketball and Baseball are much easier: In these sports, its all about the Post-Season. That's the only thing anyone cares about.
Bottomline: If your basketball or baseball team fails to make the NCAA Tournament, the season was a failure. That is the only thing that matters.
So pick your weights. For Basketball, it should go something like this:
Round of 64/68 appearances: 2 points
Round of 32 appearances: 3 points
Round of 16 appearances: 4 points
Elite 8 appearances: 6 points
Final 4 appearances: 15 points
Championship Game appearances: 20 points
National Title: 40 points
For baseball, follow the same rough guidelines, except instead of "Final 4", make going to Omaha (Round of 8) the big jump in value.
Bottomline: If your basketball or baseball team fails to make the NCAA Tournament, the season was a failure. That is the only thing that matters.
So pick your weights. For Basketball, it should go something like this:
Round of 64/68 appearances: 2 points
Round of 32 appearances: 3 points
Round of 16 appearances: 4 points
Elite 8 appearances: 6 points
Final 4 appearances: 15 points
Championship Game appearances: 20 points
National Title: 40 points
For baseball, follow the same rough guidelines, except instead of "Final 4", make going to Omaha (Round of 8) the big jump in value.
Posted on 3/9/17 at 7:54 am to Crimson Legend
Auburn just lost to Missouri. So they are disqualified forever
Posted on 3/9/17 at 7:55 am to BHMKyle
quote:
BHMKyle
I agree with your assessments
Posted on 3/9/17 at 9:55 am to SummerOfGeorge
I'll take a stab at it.
Basketball:
(Category) (Points)
Number of National Titles 100
Number of NCAA Tourney Appearances 50
Number of Sweet 16s 25
Number of Elite 8s 25
Number of Final 4s 75
Number of NCAA Tourney wins 25
Number of SEC Reg. Season Titles 10
Number of SEC Tourney Titles 10
Number of All-Time NCAA Victories 10
Number of All-Time SEC Victories 10
All-Time NCAA Winning % 10
All-Time SEC Winning % 10
Number of College HOFers 5
Number of NBA HOFers 5
Number of National POYs 5
Number of SEC POYs 5
Number of NBA POYs 5
Number of All-Americans 5
Number of All-SEC Players 5
Number of All-NBA Players 5
Number of 50 Greatest NBA Players 5
Basketball:
(Category) (Points)
Number of National Titles 100
Number of NCAA Tourney Appearances 50
Number of Sweet 16s 25
Number of Elite 8s 25
Number of Final 4s 75
Number of NCAA Tourney wins 25
Number of SEC Reg. Season Titles 10
Number of SEC Tourney Titles 10
Number of All-Time NCAA Victories 10
Number of All-Time SEC Victories 10
All-Time NCAA Winning % 10
All-Time SEC Winning % 10
Number of College HOFers 5
Number of NBA HOFers 5
Number of National POYs 5
Number of SEC POYs 5
Number of NBA POYs 5
Number of All-Americans 5
Number of All-SEC Players 5
Number of All-NBA Players 5
Number of 50 Greatest NBA Players 5
This post was edited on 3/9/17 at 9:57 am
Posted on 3/9/17 at 10:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
Football
Number of Consensus National Titles (AP, UPI, BCS, ESPN, CFB Playoff)
Number of CFB Playoff Appearances
Number of All NCG Appearances
Number of All other National Titles (Dunkel, Williamson, CFA, Publications, Polls, Associations)
Number of All-Time NCAA Victories
Number of All-Time SEC Victories
All-time NCAA Winning %
All-time SEC Winning %
Number of SEC Titles
Number of SECCG Appearances
Number of Bowl Appearances
Number of Bowl Victories
Number of NYD Bowl Appearances
Number of Top 5 Final Rankings
Number of Top 10 Final Rankings
Number of Top 25 Final Rankings
Number of Heisman Winners
Number of Heisman Runner-Ups
Number of Heisman Finalists
Number of All-Americans
Number of All-SEC players
Number of SEC POYs
Number of Draddy Award (Academic Heisman) Winners
Number of Outland, Biletnikof, etc Winners
Number of NFL HOFers
Number of NFL All-Pros
Number of All-time NFL Draft Choices
Number of Top 10 Recruiting Finishes (compilation of Rivals, Scout, ESPN, etc,)
Number of Top 10 Finishes in National Attendance
Reputation for Mascot
Reputation for Fight Song
Reputation for Marching Band
Brand Reputation
Logo/Helmet/Uniform Reputation
Stadium,Tailgating,PreGame Rep
Number of Consensus National Titles (AP, UPI, BCS, ESPN, CFB Playoff)
Number of CFB Playoff Appearances
Number of All NCG Appearances
Number of All other National Titles (Dunkel, Williamson, CFA, Publications, Polls, Associations)
Number of All-Time NCAA Victories
Number of All-Time SEC Victories
All-time NCAA Winning %
All-time SEC Winning %
Number of SEC Titles
Number of SECCG Appearances
Number of Bowl Appearances
Number of Bowl Victories
Number of NYD Bowl Appearances
Number of Top 5 Final Rankings
Number of Top 10 Final Rankings
Number of Top 25 Final Rankings
Number of Heisman Winners
Number of Heisman Runner-Ups
Number of Heisman Finalists
Number of All-Americans
Number of All-SEC players
Number of SEC POYs
Number of Draddy Award (Academic Heisman) Winners
Number of Outland, Biletnikof, etc Winners
Number of NFL HOFers
Number of NFL All-Pros
Number of All-time NFL Draft Choices
Number of Top 10 Recruiting Finishes (compilation of Rivals, Scout, ESPN, etc,)
Number of Top 10 Finishes in National Attendance
Reputation for Mascot
Reputation for Fight Song
Reputation for Marching Band
Brand Reputation
Logo/Helmet/Uniform Reputation
Stadium,Tailgating,PreGame Rep
This post was edited on 3/9/17 at 10:19 am
Posted on 3/9/17 at 10:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I grow weary of the "who is better all-time"
I agree
Posted on 3/9/17 at 12:51 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
For Basketball, it should go something like this:
First Round: 1 point
Second Round: 2 points
Sweet 16: 4 points
Elite 8: 8 points
Final 4: 16 points
Title Game: 32 points
Title: 64 points
Posted on 3/9/17 at 1:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
My challenge, if you choose to accept it, is to create a mathematical system that spits out an end number telling that we can sort and rank and agree to.
It was my understanding that there would be no math.
-CC as GF
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