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re: How about a real line for the Bama-LSU Game? (Spoiler Alert: It's not +17)
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:12 am to bamafan425
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:12 am to bamafan425
Bama gets 12 points for home field advantage. 
1
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:12 am to bamafan425
quote:
We haven't covered twice (Georgia State + Colorado State), while we have covered all but 1 SEC game (Texas A&M could be a push, win, or loss depending on the number).
So you covered 5 and did not 3...like I said, Bama has had trouble covering all year.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:13 am to parkjas2001
How is that trouble covering?
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:13 am to parkjas2001
quote:
Vegas inflates Bama lines week in, week out.
quote:
Bama has had trouble covering all year...take LSU.
These statements aren't true. Alabama is 5-3 or 5-2-1 (depending on site used for the A&M spread) against the spread this year. Actually pretty good when talking about record ATS.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:13 am to parkjas2001
I'd still take LSU at 12. This game is always a nail biter.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:14 am to Wallacewade04
quote:
we've only blown out LSU once in recent history and that was the oddest Championship Game I'd ever seen
What are you talking about? What championship game? I dont remember any blow out in a championship game. Now will admit there is a gap in my memory, due to some shock therapy I volunteered for. I cannot remember anything from about 11:59 pm on 1/8/12 to 12:00 am 1/10/12
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:14 am to faxis
I think it will come in around -10 come game time.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:16 am to bamafan425
quote:
How is that trouble covering?
Get your panties out of your arse.
I did not say anything insulting to your program.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:17 am to parkjas2001
quote:
So you covered 5 and did not 3...like I said, Bama has had trouble covering all year.
If I'm betting, I'd take a 5-2-1 record ATS record all day.
That being said, LSU will win this one outright.
This post was edited on 10/31/13 at 11:18 am
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:18 am to elposter
quote:
Vegas inflates Bama lines week in, week out.
These statements aren't true
Did not make that statement. I would cosider 5-3 as struggling but whatever. I am shocked that this is some massive insult.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:18 am to parkjas2001
quote:
So you covered 5 and did not 3...like I said, Bama has had trouble covering all year.
What? 62.5% ATS is good. It's 12.5 percentage points higher than you expect, which equates to 25% more success against the spread than you would expect.
This post was edited on 10/31/13 at 11:19 am
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:18 am to elposter
Vegas most definitely inflates Bama lines. That doesn't mean we don't cover. They just inflate them in hopes that it will deter the public from backing Bama. They would rather rely on Bama covering, than the opponent covering. See Ole Miss earlier this year. Public was on Ole Miss as a 14-17 point dog.
LINK
Headline: "Inflated point spread not deterring bettors from backing Alabama vs. Texas A&M"
LINK
"The Linemakers' lean: Alabama has won the past nine meetings, but Ole Miss has covered six of the last eight. Part of the reason is that Bama’s line is far too inflated on a weekly basis. Last year the number was 30, and Bama won by only 19. This has been an ongoing trend for the Tide over the years, and this number is too high as well. The Rebels can smell a weakness in the Alabama defense, and they have the offensive talent to exploit it. Look for Ole Miss to limit their turnovers that cost them last season and play a spirited game, and they might even give the Tide a scare late in the game. Take the 16 points here."
LINK
"The sharp bets are understandable, because they’re always looking for value, especially against a team like Alabama that typically lays a few points more points than its ratings suggests. The spread is inflated by oddsmakers to offset the public appeal of the team. But in this instance, a few books are reporting that Ole Miss is attracting close to equal parlay action (public play) in money and ticket counts, as well as more money on straight bets."
LINK
Headline: "Inflated point spread not deterring bettors from backing Alabama vs. Texas A&M"
LINK
"The Linemakers' lean: Alabama has won the past nine meetings, but Ole Miss has covered six of the last eight. Part of the reason is that Bama’s line is far too inflated on a weekly basis. Last year the number was 30, and Bama won by only 19. This has been an ongoing trend for the Tide over the years, and this number is too high as well. The Rebels can smell a weakness in the Alabama defense, and they have the offensive talent to exploit it. Look for Ole Miss to limit their turnovers that cost them last season and play a spirited game, and they might even give the Tide a scare late in the game. Take the 16 points here."
LINK
"The sharp bets are understandable, because they’re always looking for value, especially against a team like Alabama that typically lays a few points more points than its ratings suggests. The spread is inflated by oddsmakers to offset the public appeal of the team. But in this instance, a few books are reporting that Ole Miss is attracting close to equal parlay action (public play) in money and ticket counts, as well as more money on straight bets."
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:20 am to parkjas2001
Wow. I was asking a question.
5-2-1 is a 71.4% winning percentage for the bettor. The push does not count in the percentage since it's pretty much like it didn't happen.
If you took a loss on TAMU game, then its 62.5%. While if you bought the hook and won, it's a 75% winning percentage.
Professional bettors hope to hit a 60% clip on the year.
Don't take a question so personal.
5-2-1 is a 71.4% winning percentage for the bettor. The push does not count in the percentage since it's pretty much like it didn't happen.
If you took a loss on TAMU game, then its 62.5%. While if you bought the hook and won, it's a 75% winning percentage.
Professional bettors hope to hit a 60% clip on the year.
Don't take a question so personal.
This post was edited on 10/31/13 at 11:21 am
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:21 am to ForeverLSU02
I'd take LSU at anything over +10
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:22 am to bamafan425
You're right, nm. 62% is not struggling.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:22 am to HollierThanThou
quote:
I'd take LSU at anything over +10
Absolutely. Easy money.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:23 am to parkjas2001
quote:
Get your panties out of your arse.
I did not say anything insulting to your program.
LOL, parkjas2001. Just because people show you that Alabama has not struggled against the spread by any ojective measure doesn't mean their "panties are in their arse." No reason to take it personally when people disagree with your peculiar opinion that Alabama has struggled against the spread.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:32 am to elposter
Vegas is just getting the money flowing. The line will come down next week. This week does not really matter.
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:40 am to Tuscaloosa
I just don't think Mett can be "backed" by hard earned cash right now. Hasn't shown anything when pressured. If LSU can't run on Bama then it will be a VERY long day. I say:
Bama 30
LSU 13
Bama 30
LSU 13
Posted on 10/31/13 at 11:52 am to parkjas2001
quote:
Bama has had trouble covering all year...take LSU.
Alabama is 5-3 against the spread. I hope you dont make bets.
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