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Historical Elite Program Rankings
Posted on 1/15/20 at 10:40 am
Posted on 1/15/20 at 10:40 am
Yesterday I posted the update to my Elite Program rankings. For those that missed it, this is the formula:
**Based upon the Final AP Poll results of each season
**1st place finish receives 75 points (which is a 3x multiplier for winning the title).... 2nd place is 24 points, 3rd place is 23 points, etc.
**The most recent 10 seasons are all given full credit due to the fact they were recent.
**All seasons 51 years ago or longer receive just half credit.... (take the AP Poll points for those seasons and multiply by .5)
**Seasons 11-50 years back are given partial credit on a sliding scale... with each passing year dropping down in the amount of credit given. So for instance, results from the 2009 season are given 98.75% credit. Results from the 2008 season are given 97.5% credit, and so forth until you hit 51 years ago in which half credit is given.
I figured out a way using Excel to fairly easily go back to past years to see what the rankings would have looked like at the conclusion of past decades.
CURRENT RANKINGS THOUGH 2019 WITH CHANGES FROM A DECADE AGO:
1. Alabama- 1,206 points (up 1 spot)
2. Ohio State- 962 (up 4 spots)
3. Oklahoma- 960 (down 2 spots)
4. Notre Dame- 829 (down 1 spot)
5. USC- 791 (down 1 spot)
6. Michigan- 720 (up 1 spot)
7. Nebraska- 691 (down 2 spots)
8. LSU- 662 (up 5 spots)
9. Texas- 643 (down 1 spot)
10. Florida St. (592 (up 4 spots)
11. Miami- 587 (down 2 spots)
12. Florida- 575 (down 1 spot)
13. Penn State- 560 (down 3 spots)
14. Tennessee- 504 (down 2 spots)
15. Auburn- 492 (up 1 spot)
16. Georgia- 489 (down 1 spot)
17. Clemson- 482 (up 8 spots)
BIGGEST GAINERS OF THE DECADE IN POINTS:
+327 Alabama
+239 Clemson
+170 Ohio State
+151 LSU
+127 Oregon
+107 Stanford
+97 Wisconsin
+92 TCU
+91 Auburn
+86 Florida State
**Remember, this doesn't mean these were necessarily the 10 best teams of the decade. Part of the formula means that as old accomplishments reach back further in time, they lose some value. So any accomplishments from 1970-2009 saw their values reduced. The above teams all scored quite a few new points during the decade, but many of them were also helped by the fact that they had fewer accomplishments that saw a reduction in value due to slipping further back in the past.
BIGGEST LOSERS OF THE DECADE IN POINTS:
-103 Nebraska
-63 Miami
-45 Tennessee
-44 Texas
-27 Pittsburgh
-25 BYU
-25 Colorado
-21 USC
-13 Michigan
-12 Penn State
Some of these programs had a decent decade... however the points they gained weren't enough to offset points lost from past accomplishments slipping back further in time. Nebraska was by far the biggest loser... partly because they added very few points during the recent decade, but they had so many past accomplishments further devalued, they took a monster hit.
THE SEC:
Here is how the SEC ranks, plus the change in points during the decade:
1. Alabama- 1,260 (+327)
2. LSU- 662 (+151)
3. Florida- 575 (+16)
4. Tennessee- 504 (-45)
5. Auburn- 492 (+91)
6. Georgia- 489 (+63)
7. Texas A&M- 284 (+19)
8. Arkansas- 269 (+3)
9. Ole Miss- 207 (+15)
10. Missouri- 165 (+31)
11. S. Carolina- 102 (+55)
12. Mississippi St.- 86 (+28)
13. Kentucky- 66 (+10)
14. Vanderbilt- 12 (+5)
Everyone in the SEC except Tennessee gained points during the decade. That's actually pretty unbelievable.
To show how large the gap is between the Big 6 and the others.... Texas A&M could win the next two national titles and they still wouldn't be in the Top 6 of the league.
**Based upon the Final AP Poll results of each season
**1st place finish receives 75 points (which is a 3x multiplier for winning the title).... 2nd place is 24 points, 3rd place is 23 points, etc.
**The most recent 10 seasons are all given full credit due to the fact they were recent.
**All seasons 51 years ago or longer receive just half credit.... (take the AP Poll points for those seasons and multiply by .5)
**Seasons 11-50 years back are given partial credit on a sliding scale... with each passing year dropping down in the amount of credit given. So for instance, results from the 2009 season are given 98.75% credit. Results from the 2008 season are given 97.5% credit, and so forth until you hit 51 years ago in which half credit is given.
I figured out a way using Excel to fairly easily go back to past years to see what the rankings would have looked like at the conclusion of past decades.
CURRENT RANKINGS THOUGH 2019 WITH CHANGES FROM A DECADE AGO:
1. Alabama- 1,206 points (up 1 spot)
2. Ohio State- 962 (up 4 spots)
3. Oklahoma- 960 (down 2 spots)
4. Notre Dame- 829 (down 1 spot)
5. USC- 791 (down 1 spot)
6. Michigan- 720 (up 1 spot)
7. Nebraska- 691 (down 2 spots)
8. LSU- 662 (up 5 spots)
9. Texas- 643 (down 1 spot)
10. Florida St. (592 (up 4 spots)
11. Miami- 587 (down 2 spots)
12. Florida- 575 (down 1 spot)
13. Penn State- 560 (down 3 spots)
14. Tennessee- 504 (down 2 spots)
15. Auburn- 492 (up 1 spot)
16. Georgia- 489 (down 1 spot)
17. Clemson- 482 (up 8 spots)
BIGGEST GAINERS OF THE DECADE IN POINTS:
+327 Alabama
+239 Clemson
+170 Ohio State
+151 LSU
+127 Oregon
+107 Stanford
+97 Wisconsin
+92 TCU
+91 Auburn
+86 Florida State
**Remember, this doesn't mean these were necessarily the 10 best teams of the decade. Part of the formula means that as old accomplishments reach back further in time, they lose some value. So any accomplishments from 1970-2009 saw their values reduced. The above teams all scored quite a few new points during the decade, but many of them were also helped by the fact that they had fewer accomplishments that saw a reduction in value due to slipping further back in the past.
BIGGEST LOSERS OF THE DECADE IN POINTS:
-103 Nebraska
-63 Miami
-45 Tennessee
-44 Texas
-27 Pittsburgh
-25 BYU
-25 Colorado
-21 USC
-13 Michigan
-12 Penn State
Some of these programs had a decent decade... however the points they gained weren't enough to offset points lost from past accomplishments slipping back further in time. Nebraska was by far the biggest loser... partly because they added very few points during the recent decade, but they had so many past accomplishments further devalued, they took a monster hit.
THE SEC:
Here is how the SEC ranks, plus the change in points during the decade:
1. Alabama- 1,260 (+327)
2. LSU- 662 (+151)
3. Florida- 575 (+16)
4. Tennessee- 504 (-45)
5. Auburn- 492 (+91)
6. Georgia- 489 (+63)
7. Texas A&M- 284 (+19)
8. Arkansas- 269 (+3)
9. Ole Miss- 207 (+15)
10. Missouri- 165 (+31)
11. S. Carolina- 102 (+55)
12. Mississippi St.- 86 (+28)
13. Kentucky- 66 (+10)
14. Vanderbilt- 12 (+5)
Everyone in the SEC except Tennessee gained points during the decade. That's actually pretty unbelievable.
To show how large the gap is between the Big 6 and the others.... Texas A&M could win the next two national titles and they still wouldn't be in the Top 6 of the league.
This post was edited on 1/15/20 at 10:41 am
21
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:05 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Everyone in the SEC except Tennessee gained points during the decade.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:07 am to BHMKyle
Here is how the SEC stacked up at the conclusion of each decade, going back to the end of the 1960s, with national rank listed (I included expansion teams):
END OF THE 1960s :
#4 Alabama- 475
#10 Tennessee- 327
#12 LSU- 265
#14 Ole Miss- 239
#15 Arkansas- 196
#17 Auburn- 189
#26 Missouri- 135
#27 Georgia- 129
#28 Texas A&M- 128
#35 Florida- 57
END OF THE 1970s:
#2 Alabama- 866
#9 Tennessee- 356
#11 LSU- 296
#15 Arkansas- 278
#16 Auburn- 189
#19 Ole Miss- 229
#22 Georgia- 166
#23 Texas A&M- 159
#25 Missouri- 142
#38 Florida- 62
END OF THE 1980s:
#3 Alabama- 803
#13 Tennessee- 357
#14 Auburn- 365
#15 LSU- 332
#16 Arkansas- 316
#17 Georgia- 308
#22 Ole Miss- 195
#23 Texas A&M- 192
#31 Missouri- 130
#33 Florida- 118
END OF THE 1990s:
#1 Alabama- 879
#10 Tennessee- 528
#14 Auburn- 365
#15 Florida- 348
#16 Georgia- 337
#17 LSU- 318
#19 Arkansas- 297
#20 Texas A&M- 291
#27 Ole Miss- 186
#35 Missouri- 122
END OF THE 2000s:
#2 Alabama- 879
#11 Florida- 559
#12 Tennessee- 549
#13 LSU- 511
#15 Georgia- 426
#16 Auburn- 401
#19 Arkansas- 266
#20 Texas A&M- 265
#28 Ole Miss- 192
#38 Missouri- 134
END OF THE 2010s (CURRENT):
#1 Alabama- 1,602
#8 LSU- 662
#12 Florida- 575
#14 Tennessee- 504
#15 Auburn- 492
#16 Georgia- 489
#22 Texas A&M- 284
#23 Arkansas- 269
#32 Ole Miss- 207
#37 Missouri- 165
END OF THE 1960s :
#4 Alabama- 475
#10 Tennessee- 327
#12 LSU- 265
#14 Ole Miss- 239
#15 Arkansas- 196
#17 Auburn- 189
#26 Missouri- 135
#27 Georgia- 129
#28 Texas A&M- 128
#35 Florida- 57
END OF THE 1970s:
#2 Alabama- 866
#9 Tennessee- 356
#11 LSU- 296
#15 Arkansas- 278
#16 Auburn- 189
#19 Ole Miss- 229
#22 Georgia- 166
#23 Texas A&M- 159
#25 Missouri- 142
#38 Florida- 62
END OF THE 1980s:
#3 Alabama- 803
#13 Tennessee- 357
#14 Auburn- 365
#15 LSU- 332
#16 Arkansas- 316
#17 Georgia- 308
#22 Ole Miss- 195
#23 Texas A&M- 192
#31 Missouri- 130
#33 Florida- 118
END OF THE 1990s:
#1 Alabama- 879
#10 Tennessee- 528
#14 Auburn- 365
#15 Florida- 348
#16 Georgia- 337
#17 LSU- 318
#19 Arkansas- 297
#20 Texas A&M- 291
#27 Ole Miss- 186
#35 Missouri- 122
END OF THE 2000s:
#2 Alabama- 879
#11 Florida- 559
#12 Tennessee- 549
#13 LSU- 511
#15 Georgia- 426
#16 Auburn- 401
#19 Arkansas- 266
#20 Texas A&M- 265
#28 Ole Miss- 192
#38 Missouri- 134
END OF THE 2010s (CURRENT):
#1 Alabama- 1,602
#8 LSU- 662
#12 Florida- 575
#14 Tennessee- 504
#15 Auburn- 492
#16 Georgia- 489
#22 Texas A&M- 284
#23 Arkansas- 269
#32 Ole Miss- 207
#37 Missouri- 165
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:08 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Part of the formula means that as old accomplishments reach back further in time, they lose some value.
Why?
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:14 am to BHMKyle
I like that you've put a lot of thought and an interestign spin on this, but I think lookign SOLELY at where a team falls in the AP poll as your only determing factor to eliteness is way off base. UGA and AU are prime examples...they're separated by a measly 3 points in your formula, which coudl legitimately be determined by the rankings of a few weeks midseason from the AP poll 25 years ago. I think, and I don't think this is really all that crazy, titles shoudl count for something which I see you did weight for national titles. UGA and AU both have 2 national titles. We have 13 SEC titles to their 8. We have a higher all time win percentage, more all time wins, more bowl games, more bowl wins, better bowl win percentage, more weeks in the AP poll, more weeks ranked 1st in the AP, more wins head to head....I mean we are better than them in almost every category imagineable yet you ahve them ranked higher.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:16 am to BHMKyle
quote:
BHMKyle
Doin' work...
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:16 am to WG_Dawg
Yeah UGA should be above Aubie
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:16 am to BHMKyle
CHANGE IN POINTS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE 1980s:
+513: Florida
+430: Alabama
+366: LSU
+323: Georgia
+247: Auburn
+148: Tennessee
+125: Texas A&M
+11: Missouri
-9: Arkansas
-22: Ole Miss
This is how you got the Big 6. FYI, Those five at the top are all in the Top 11 nationally for most points gained since 1980.... joined only by Florida State (+560), Miami (+524), Clemson (+388), Ohio State (+359), Penn State (+273), and Nebraska (+268).... that last one due only to their major success in the '80s and '90s. They've lost points since.
But this helps explain how the power shift in the game has shifted South.... outside of Ohio State and Penn State, almost all of the programs to take a big leap have come out of the Deep South.
+513: Florida
+430: Alabama
+366: LSU
+323: Georgia
+247: Auburn
+148: Tennessee
+125: Texas A&M
+11: Missouri
-9: Arkansas
-22: Ole Miss
This is how you got the Big 6. FYI, Those five at the top are all in the Top 11 nationally for most points gained since 1980.... joined only by Florida State (+560), Miami (+524), Clemson (+388), Ohio State (+359), Penn State (+273), and Nebraska (+268).... that last one due only to their major success in the '80s and '90s. They've lost points since.
But this helps explain how the power shift in the game has shifted South.... outside of Ohio State and Penn State, almost all of the programs to take a big leap have come out of the Deep South.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:17 am to BHMKyle
Great stuff Kyle
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:18 am to BHMKyle
Be prepared for some butthurt UT fans invading this thread.
Great work
Great work
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:19 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
UGA and AU both have 2 national titles.
UGA has two AP titles?
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:19 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Be prepared for some butthurt UT fans invading this thread.
Why? Even with the worst decade in the history of the program, they are still Big-6.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:21 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Yeah UGA should be above Aubie
Auburn is helped by the fact they have a National Title in the most recent decade. That gave them a huge surge of points.
As long as I can remember, Auburn and Georgia have been neck and neck. Georgia has had more steady success over the past 20 years, but Auburn's national title is the difference maker.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:23 am to BHMKyle
quote:
END OF THE 1970s:
#2 Alabama- 866
#9 Tennessee- 356
#11 LSU- 296
#15 Arkansas- 278
#16 Auburn- 189
#19 Ole Miss- 229
#22 Georgia- 166
#23 Texas A&M- 159
#25 Missouri- 142
#38 Florida- 62
Wait, how could LSU be the 3rd best SEC program before Saban ever showed up to build the program?
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:23 am to DawgTired
quote:
Why?
The same reason people flip out when you list Tennessee as being elite.... they don't care that they still have a strong argument for being the SEC's #2 program, everyone says recent success or lack there of should account for more than success from 50+ years ago.
I mean. Minnesota has 4 National Titles all won before 1960.
Would you rather have 4 National Titles won prior to 1960 like the Gophers, or 3 National Titles all won since 1996 like the Florida Gators? Most would choose the latter despite being one fewer.
So recent success should count a bit more than success from the 1930s, '40s, etc.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:24 am to BHMKyle
I like the idea behind it
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:25 am to NYCAuburn
quote:
UGA has two AP titles?
Nope, they claim a title for 1942 when the AP awarded aOSU the title.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:29 am to madmaxvol
quote:
Why? Even with the worst decade in the history of the program, they are still Big-6.
That's a great way to look at it. However, there were several who were not happy with his last post about the current dominant teams.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:42 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
I think lookign SOLELY at where a team falls in the AP poll as your only determing factor to eliteness is way off base.
It isn't "solely" on the AP. That's the basis, but there is a 3x point multiplier for a National Championship. So really its AP Points AND National Championships that are the sole determining factors.
quote:
UGA and AU are prime examples...they're separated by a measly 3 points in your formula, which coudl legitimately be determined by the rankings of a few weeks midseason from the AP poll 25 years ago.
Nope. Only Final Rankings are used. Mid season rankings play zero part.
quote:
I think, and I don't think this is really all that crazy, titles shoudl count for something which I see you did weight for national titles.
Yes I agree. Which is the entire reason Auburn is ahead. Only major poll National Titles are counted (AP & UPI/Coaches), and they have two to our one.
quote:
We have 13 SEC titles to their 8.
Conference titles are not a good factor because not all conferences are equal. So does a MAC Championship count as much as an SEC Title? Is it fair FSU racked up 11 ACC Titles in a 12-year period when the ACC was essentially a one-team league while the SEC teams have to fight tooth and nail just for one?
And what do you do with Notre Dame? The fact they are not in a conference doesn't mean they are any weaker/stronger... its just the set up they have.
You can't make Conference Championships a factor when trying to rank programs nationally.
quote:
We have 13 SEC titles to their 8. We have a higher all time win percentage, more all time wins, more bowl games, more bowl wins, better bowl win percentage, more weeks in the AP poll, more weeks ranked 1st in the AP, more wins head to head....I mean we are better than them in almost every category imagineable yet you ahve them ranked higher.
If a Georgia fan wants to argue we are ahead of Auburn, I have no problem with that. Most of what you say is true, however Auburn and Georgia have been pretty much equals as long as anyone can remember. I mean since 1936 (which is when this exercise starts from), Georgia leads the series 40-39-4.... I mean you can't get much closer than that.
Auburn actually has 2 more AP Top 25 finishes than us... 40 to 38.... however we have more AP Poll points because our finishes have on average been higher. Regardless, the margin between the two programs is razor thin.
Auburn has an extra National Title (worth 75 points) and despite that, they lead Georgia by 3 measly points in the formula..... its close enough that if Georgia finishes 4 or 5 spots ahead of them next season in the AP Poll, we'll likely jump back ahead.
This post was edited on 1/15/20 at 11:46 am
Posted on 1/15/20 at 11:50 am to BHMKyle
By trends, by point changes ...
1. Alabama- 1,260 (+327)
2. LSU- 662 (+151)
5. Auburn- 492 (+91)
6. Georgia- 489 (+63)
11. S. Carolina- 102 (+55)
10. Missouri- 165 (+31)
12. Mississippi St.- 86 (+28)
7. Texas A&M- 284 (+19)
3. Florida- 575 (+16)
9. Ole Miss- 207 (+15)
13. Kentucky- 66 (+10)
14. Vanderbilt- 12 (+5)
8. Arkansas- 269 (+3)
4. Tennessee- 504 (-45)
1. Alabama- 1,260 (+327)
2. LSU- 662 (+151)
5. Auburn- 492 (+91)
6. Georgia- 489 (+63)
11. S. Carolina- 102 (+55)
10. Missouri- 165 (+31)
12. Mississippi St.- 86 (+28)
7. Texas A&M- 284 (+19)
3. Florida- 575 (+16)
9. Ole Miss- 207 (+15)
13. Kentucky- 66 (+10)
14. Vanderbilt- 12 (+5)
8. Arkansas- 269 (+3)
4. Tennessee- 504 (-45)
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