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re: ESPN Bracket Projections

Posted on 2/19/12 at 8:52 pm to
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/19/12 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

Febuary/march matters much more than November/December as well.


Arky last ten 4-6

Bama last ten 4-6

How does that help your argument?
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
42348 posts
Posted on 2/19/12 at 8:57 pm to
quote:

How does that help your argument?



Who said I was trying to form an argument.

I am educating you, for free.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
42348 posts
Posted on 2/19/12 at 8:57 pm to
Because I'm a nice guy like that.
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/19/12 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

Because I'm a nice guy like that.


Prince of a guy, just tragically uninformed.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
42348 posts
Posted on 2/19/12 at 9:04 pm to
quote:

jddawg58



See you in the NIT.
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/19/12 at 9:06 pm to
quote:

See you in the NIT.


Not if Bama gets to 8 -8 in the SEC. Just need to defend home floor for that. Hope that Mitchell and Green return and that mark could improve. Just need MSU to continue with their struggles.


Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/19/12 at 11:00 pm to
quote:

There is a simple explanation for why Arky is so far behind Bama in every objective rating metric, and it is because the Hogs are 0-8 on the road and 0-1 at neutral sites. To show how awful that really is, you have to go to ateam with an rpi of 200 to find a similar road record. Houston, at 223, is 0-7 on the road but ironically beat Arkansas in a game played at Little Rock (neutral site) this season. That is Houston's only neutral site victory.

Whooo piggg suehyyyy Razorbacks!




Yes, we lost our best player before the Houston game, we lost a senior last week, and had another senior injured for a few games prior.

The selection committee factors this in.







Dale Denton is referring to the NIT selection committee.
Posted by Hugo Stiglitz
Member since Oct 2010
72937 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 9:21 am to
The Bracket Projections in the OP have been updated this morning!
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 11:29 am to
quote:

ESPN Bracket Projections


The Bracket Projections in the OP have been updated this morning!


As of 2/20, Lunardi has 5 SEC teams in the Bracket:

KY #1
FL #4
VDY #7
MSU #9
ALA #10

No one else near the cut line. 4 SEC games left, plenty of time for MSU and ALA to play themselves out of the Tournament.

Bama 4-6 in last 10, MSU 5-5 in last 10. Both teams staggering to the finish.
This post was edited on 2/20/12 at 11:30 am
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 6:46 pm to
quote:

There is a simple explanation for why Arky is so far behind Bama in every objective rating metric, and it is because the Hogs are 0-8 on the road and 0-1 at neutral sites. To show how awful that really is, you have to go to a team with an rpi of 200 to find a similar road record. Houston, at 223, is 0-7 on the road but ironically beat Arkansas in a game played at Little Rock (neutral site) this season. That is Houston's only neutral site victory.

Whooo piggg suehyyyy Razorbacks!




Yes, we lost our best player before the Houston game, we lost a senior last week, and had another senior injured for a few games prior.

The selection committee factors this in.







The selection committee also factors in an 0-7 road record, 0-1 at neutral sites, RPI of 87 and BPI of 96 and BPI SOS of 80. You ain't getting in, regardless of your injuries.
This post was edited on 2/20/12 at 7:26 pm
Posted by Hugo Stiglitz
Member since Oct 2010
72937 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 6:48 pm to
LSU could still get in if they win out and win 1 or 2 in the SEC Tourney. It's very possible but not likely.
Posted by DaleDenton
Member since Jun 2010
42348 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 6:54 pm to
quote:


The selection committee also factors in an 0-7 road record, 0-1 at neutral sites, RPI of 87 and BPI of 96 and BPI SOS of 80. You ain't getting in, regardless of your injuries.



Still plenty of games left.

If it comes down between Arkansas and Alabama, Alabama gets to defend their NIT run from last year.
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 6:55 pm to
quote:

LSU could still get in if they win out and win 1 or 2 in the SEC Tourney. It's very possible but not likely.







LSU will still get consideration if they win out. Depends on how many regular season conference champs win their conference tournys. 37 at large bids. LSU could become fourth most attractive SEC team if MSU and Bama continue to stumble.
MSU has lost three in a row to GA 117, LSU 63 and AU 125. Now they play KY 3 and ALA 40. That could be a death spiral.
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 7:03 pm to
quote:

Still plenty of games left.

If it comes down between Arkansas and Alabama, Alabama gets to defend their NIT run from last year.







Bama is markedly ahead of ARKY in every metric used by the committee. Bama was left out last year with a 12-4 conf record and rpi of 80.

NCAA took GA (team that ALA beat twice) over Tide with a lesser conference record and rpi in the high 30s. That is exactly the reverse of this year's situation (ALA v ARKY) except Tide had road wins last year, something Arky is not familiar with.

Hey, with your record at Bud Walton you are almost a shoo-in to get to the Garden.
Posted by Hugo Stiglitz
Member since Oct 2010
72937 posts
Posted on 2/25/12 at 12:18 am to
Bracket Projection just updated.

Vandy is up

Florida & Kentucky no change

Mizzou down to 2 seed

Miss St, Bama are down

LSU

Updated ESPN Bracket Projections

Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62739 posts
Posted on 2/25/12 at 12:29 am to
I find that strange that Bama dropped a spot from 10 to 11, yet won the one time they played between updates.
Teams that jumped Bama, Uconn and Cincinnati, also won, though.
Posted by chilld28
Get in B Chord and Mash It!!
Member since Nov 2009
29622 posts
Posted on 2/25/12 at 12:30 am to
quote:

I find that strange that Bama dropped a spot from 10 to 11, yet won the one time they played between updates.
I'll be glad with a Number 11 seed. Stay out of the Number 1 half of the bracket as long as possible
This post was edited on 2/25/12 at 12:31 am
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62739 posts
Posted on 2/25/12 at 12:38 am to
quote:

I'll be glad with a Number 11 seed.

Plus I wouldn't mind the 6 seed in Murray State.
Posted by Elleshoe
Wade’s World
Member since Jun 2004
143616 posts
Posted on 2/25/12 at 12:47 am to
quote:


Arkansas is listed as a bubble team. LSU is irrelevant


LSU's tourny chances are better than Arkansas or State's
Posted by chilld28
Get in B Chord and Mash It!!
Member since Nov 2009
29622 posts
Posted on 2/25/12 at 12:49 am to
quote:

LSU's tourny chances are better than Arkansas or State's
That post was posted on Feb 6
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