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College football playoff scenarios...
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:01 am
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:01 am
Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:
Georgia, FSU, Michigan, OSU, WA
1 loss teams that could possibly control their own destiny if they win out including their conference championship game:
ACC: Louisville*
Big10: Penn State*
Big12: Texas
PAC12: Oregon
SEC: Bama and Ole Miss*
* Ole Miss won't make the SECCG but if they did upset Georgia and win out they might could get in at 1 loss with no conference championship if Georgia beats Bama in the SECCG.
*Louisville with their bad loss and ND losing to Clemson this past week I think at this point would be left out for sure if it came down to them against the other 1 loss contenders at the end. I don't think a win now over an undefeated FSU in the ACCCG would be enough to get them a spot if the committee was choosing between them and a 1 loss non-conference champion Ole Miss, OSU, Washington or Michigan.
* Penn State likely loses out on making the Big10 CG in a 3 way tie so it will be tough for them to get in if that doesn't change.
We have to see what the opponents of these teams do but a 1 loss ACC champion (definitely Louisville and probably FSU) I think would be left out to the other 1 loss conference champs and to 1 loss non-conference champs Ole Miss, OSU or Washington and even Michigan at this point. There will be some arguments at the end if that last spot comes down to a 1 loss ACC champion and if any of these 4 teams end up with 1 loss and no conference championship.
Craziest scenario for the committee: Undefeated Michigan*, one loss Texas*, one loss Bama*, one loss Georgia, one loss OSU, one loss FSU*, one loss Oregon* or one loss Washington.
*conference champion
The committee will have a really hard time dealing with that scenario since Texas beat Bama on the road. We know Michigan and Bama will be locks and FSU will likely be left out but who will the other 2 be out of Texas, Georgia, OSU and Oregon/Washington, It will be hard to keep TX out with that Bama road win and a 1 loss PAC12 team might have the best overall wins resume. Georgia will be the 1 loss defending champs who only lost in the SECCG.
Georgia, FSU, Michigan, OSU, WA
1 loss teams that could possibly control their own destiny if they win out including their conference championship game:
ACC: Louisville*
Big10: Penn State*
Big12: Texas
PAC12: Oregon
SEC: Bama and Ole Miss*
* Ole Miss won't make the SECCG but if they did upset Georgia and win out they might could get in at 1 loss with no conference championship if Georgia beats Bama in the SECCG.
*Louisville with their bad loss and ND losing to Clemson this past week I think at this point would be left out for sure if it came down to them against the other 1 loss contenders at the end. I don't think a win now over an undefeated FSU in the ACCCG would be enough to get them a spot if the committee was choosing between them and a 1 loss non-conference champion Ole Miss, OSU, Washington or Michigan.
* Penn State likely loses out on making the Big10 CG in a 3 way tie so it will be tough for them to get in if that doesn't change.
We have to see what the opponents of these teams do but a 1 loss ACC champion (definitely Louisville and probably FSU) I think would be left out to the other 1 loss conference champs and to 1 loss non-conference champs Ole Miss, OSU or Washington and even Michigan at this point. There will be some arguments at the end if that last spot comes down to a 1 loss ACC champion and if any of these 4 teams end up with 1 loss and no conference championship.
Craziest scenario for the committee: Undefeated Michigan*, one loss Texas*, one loss Bama*, one loss Georgia, one loss OSU, one loss FSU*, one loss Oregon* or one loss Washington.
*conference champion
The committee will have a really hard time dealing with that scenario since Texas beat Bama on the road. We know Michigan and Bama will be locks and FSU will likely be left out but who will the other 2 be out of Texas, Georgia, OSU and Oregon/Washington, It will be hard to keep TX out with that Bama road win and a 1 loss PAC12 team might have the best overall wins resume. Georgia will be the 1 loss defending champs who only lost in the SECCG.
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Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:06 am to Gator Fever
FSU is not being left out.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:14 am to BigNastyTiger417
FSU with 1 loss will likely be left out in any of those scenarios. LSU losing hurts their case a lot if they ended up with a loss before the ACCCG.
This post was edited on 11/6/23 at 7:16 am
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:20 am to Gator Fever
Ole Miss would need a ton of help even with a win in Athens. Probably another loss from Oregon/Washington (pac 12 winner to have 2 losses) and Texas to lose again. Probably the only way they would even sniff the 4 seed.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:24 am to Gator Fever
quote:
Craziest scenario for the committee: Undefeated Michigan*, one loss Texas*, one loss Bama*, one loss Georgia, one loss OSU, one loss FSU*, one loss Oregon* or one loss Washington.
*conference champion
eh half of that is just window dressing. Michigan, FSU, and Oregon are 100% locks so the only "crazy" part is deciding between texas/alabama. Alabama would have the better wins but it'd be hard to ignore the H2H.
Fortunately, things have worked themselves out nicely every single year so I have a feeling it won't come down to that.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:26 am to Gator Fever
quote:
Ole Miss won't make the SECCG but if they did upset Georgia and win out they might could get in at 1 loss with no conference championship if Georgia beats Bama in the SECCG
This would be interesting.
Ole Miss needs Texas to lose again and for the PAC 12 to devour itself.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:32 am to clamdip
The only shot Bama has is to win out and see where the chips may fall. Do that and it’s nothing more we can do.
Just remember Saban is lucky in these things.
Just remember Saban is lucky in these things.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:33 am to HottyToddy7
Last time I looked the defenses Wash have faced averaged 84 ranking with only 1 in top 40 (Oregon). They will get exposed. I think Oregon beats them and doesn’t lose again.
FSU is over rated and pulls a very beatable Louisville. Miami and UF going to put it all out to beat them. Won’t be surprised if Louisville loses to KY.
Loser of Michigan/OSU has to hope other undefeated Conf champs lose. Losing at end of season and not making Conf championship doesn’t go over well.
Based on paths I have:
Oregon
SECCG Winner
FSU
Big Ten winner if Mich/OSU
FSU is over rated and pulls a very beatable Louisville. Miami and UF going to put it all out to beat them. Won’t be surprised if Louisville loses to KY.
Loser of Michigan/OSU has to hope other undefeated Conf champs lose. Losing at end of season and not making Conf championship doesn’t go over well.
Based on paths I have:
Oregon
SECCG Winner
FSU
Big Ten winner if Mich/OSU
Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:39 am to Gator Fever
Texas still has a chance to lose before the season is over. They tried real hard to lose Saturday but we’re unsuccessful.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 8:14 am to Herman Frisco
quote:
Just remember Saban is lucky in these things.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:01 am to Gator Fever
quote:
Craziest scenario for the committee: Undefeated Michigan*, one loss Texas*, one loss Bama*, one loss Georgia, one loss OSU, one loss FSU*, one loss Oregon* or one loss Washington.
*conference champion
In that scenario, Bama, OSU, Oregon, and Texas. Bama would be SEC champ here so over UGA and you couldn't leave Texas out as big 12 champ having the win over bama. Then FSU would lose out against OSU and Oregon.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:12 am to ukraine_rebel
quote:
n that scenario, Bama, OSU, Oregon, and Texas.
There is no scenario that would put a 1-loss OSU that didn't win their conference in the playoffs above a 1-loss FSU taht did win their conference. it simply wouldn't happen.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:17 am to WG_Dawg
I think they would totally ignore the head to head.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:43 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
here is no scenario that would put a 1-loss OSU that didn't win their conference in the playoffs above a 1-loss FSU taht did win their conference. it simply wouldn't happen.
That's on me, I missed undefeated Michigan, swap out OSU for Michigan.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 10:53 am to GatorOnAnIsland
Texas still has to play at Iowa St. where they’ve been blown out in recent years. It’ll probably be at night and freezing cold.
And then the conference game against a much improved OSU (if they also win out).
At this point I’ll be happy if Texas can stake claim to the first and last big 12 title… cause there was a whole lot of OU in between. The CFP will be out of their hands and possibly a huge cluster F for the committee.
And then the conference game against a much improved OSU (if they also win out).
At this point I’ll be happy if Texas can stake claim to the first and last big 12 title… cause there was a whole lot of OU in between. The CFP will be out of their hands and possibly a huge cluster F for the committee.
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