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re: Auburn has covered the spread in 13 straight games
Posted on 9/8/14 at 10:47 pm to Monticello
Posted on 9/8/14 at 10:47 pm to Monticello
I made money last year. Haven't touched a game this year and I probably won't
0
Posted on 9/8/14 at 10:48 pm to Monticello
Due
I mean Dew
I mean Dew
Posted on 9/8/14 at 10:50 pm to Monticello
Posted on 9/8/14 at 10:52 pm to Lee County Tiger
quote:
Saw a Stat that said if you bet $100 on Auburn to cover in the last 13 games you'd have won $800,000
I guess a 13 game parlay would have odds of 8,000:1. I don't know if it's possible bet that far in the future. Or can you keep a running parlay?
Posted on 9/8/14 at 11:47 pm to mckibaj
The stat like that I seen was you won that much if you had bet on the first game and let the winnings ride through all the games.
This post was edited on 9/8/14 at 11:48 pm
Posted on 9/9/14 at 12:00 am to Monticello
if you started out betting 100$ on them, and let it ride each time you would have over 800k right now
eta: i need to read the thread before i post
eta: i need to read the thread before i post
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 12:01 am
Posted on 9/9/14 at 12:03 am to Monticello
That's an exceptionally improbable stat, considering covering is almost always about a 50/50 proposition.
It tells me two things and both true.
1. The odds makers are consistently under-rating Auburn
2. Auburn has been running hot in terms of luck/variance.
Both are true and needed to explain the numbers.
It tells me two things and both true.
1. The odds makers are consistently under-rating Auburn
2. Auburn has been running hot in terms of luck/variance.
Both are true and needed to explain the numbers.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 12:22 am to Monticello
quote:
Bama was excellent ATS from 2008-2009. Eventually the betters adjusted and the points Bama needed to cover grew exponentially.
I rode Bama so hard in 2009.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 6:54 am to IAmReality
Yeah covering that 31 point Saturday was lucky as shite
Posted on 9/9/14 at 7:50 am to IT_Dawg
quote:
You realize spreads are based on what 50% of the people bet on what will happen, right?
You realize that this is a myth, right? Lines are designed to tease the uninformed. Rarely, if ever, does a book maker balance his book. Most times you will see 70-80% of the public money on one side of a bet or the other. Vegas encourages that. The only time they move the line is when they have made a mistake.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 8:15 am to No Colors
You dumb.
Have two questions for you.
1. Do you know who owns the casinos in vegas and the people they employ to operate the casinos and are responsible for how the sportsbooks operate and set lines?
2. Do you know how the process of setting a line and who does it?
Pretty sure you don't from your misinformed post.
Have two questions for you.
1. Do you know who owns the casinos in vegas and the people they employ to operate the casinos and are responsible for how the sportsbooks operate and set lines?
2. Do you know how the process of setting a line and who does it?
Pretty sure you don't from your misinformed post.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 8:44 am to Monticello
More amazing about that is that bettors know AU has covered the spread and thus you would think the lines would be inflated for AU.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:33 am to sjmabry
quote:
Did he cover in the stiff dew last year?
Yes. LSU was favored by 17, I think. Auburn kept it to two touchdowns.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:35 am to StopRobot
quote:
More amazing about that is that bettors know AU has covered the spread and thus you would think the lines would be inflated for AU.
That honestly just goes to show how badly people are betting against Auburn to cover the spread. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Vegas is still seeing 70%+ of bets going against Auburn, and they are making BANK
a lucky team doesn't usually cover the spread, they just don't, not in such a crazy fashion at least - and you had better bet Vegas is making loads of $$$ from Auburn, just look at the number of stupid threads before the Aub. vs. Ark. game talking about the free money by betting on Arky
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:38 am to BaddestAndvari
That's what I think as well. I think the money keeps going opposite of Auburn. The Arky game went from 21 to 18. That shows most of the money was on Arky. Most people thought FSU would handle Auburn easily. No way a one dimensional O could beat saban. Etc., etc., etc..
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:49 am to IAmReality
quote:
I guess a 13 game parlay would have odds of 8,000:1. I don't know if it's possible bet that far in the future. Or can you keep a running parlay?
It was if you bet 100 on the first game and kept betting the winnings of each subsequent game, you'd be in the 800k range now.
quote:
1. The odds makers are consistently under-rating Auburn
This along with a high scoring offense is why this has happened.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:55 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
That's a myth. For the Super Bowl, yes. On games where far less is bet, they want most of the money on the losing side.
ETA: Have you ever heard the term "trap game"?
This is correct. Vegas motivation is to put the line exactly where they think the outcome will be. Any deviation from that and the
"50%" mark is cash money. Anyone remember WVU against Texas Tech a couple years ago? WVU was top 5, Tech was unranked and sucked. Line was only WVU -4.5 and the betting public went crazy. Geno Smith's Heisman went out the window along with millions from the betting public.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:19 am to auzach91
quote:
if you started out betting 100$ on them, and let it ride each time you would have over 800k right now
That didn't sound right so I did the math. Unless I didn't carry an ought, after covering 13 straight times, I came up with being ahead $409,600. That is still one heck of a run. I think I would call it a day right there.
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