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Alabama opponent defensive ranks (Yards per Play)... and more!

Posted on 10/17/18 at 11:53 am
Posted by WhereOrWere
Member since May 2013
2708 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 11:53 am
"Yea, but Mr. WhereOrWere, they would be ranked way higher if they didn't have to play TuaJesus!"

Perhaps, little Harvey. However, these numbers have the TuaJesus game removed from them and only include FBS opponents.

52. Texas A&M (5.39)
76. Arkansas St (5.73)
79. Arkansas (5.75)
86. Ole Miss (5.88)
96. Missouri (6.15)
98. Louisville (6.17)
118. Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns (6.86)

Also, little Harvey, lets see these same team's opponent average Passer Rating with Alabama/FCS opponents removed again... for fun!

5. Arkansas St (97.2)
71. Arkansas (133.8)
73. Texas A&M (134.6)
74. Ole Miss (134.8)
106. Missouri (152.4)
108. Louisville (153.5)
112. Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns (155.3)

OK little Harvey, your lesson is over for today.

Posted by Rillo
Member since Aug 2018
605 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 11:55 am to
So there’s a chance?
Posted by bstew3006
318
Member since Dec 2007
12583 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 11:56 am to


Posted by bstew3006
318
Member since Dec 2007
12583 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 11:58 am to


Not really, bama can't lose!
Posted by MrBiriwa
Biriwa,OH
Member since Nov 2010
7116 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

97 - LSU - 119.0





...and they haven't even played Miss St and Bama yet
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:00 pm to
So, here is how TuaJesus and Hurtsalot performed vs those teams averages you so nicely supplied to us

Texas A&M : 8.59 (+2.20) (159%)
Arkansas St : 8.21 (+2.48) (143%)
Arkansas : 10.83 (+5.08) (188%)
Ole Miss : 7.17 (+1.29) (122%)
Missouri : 7.52 (+1.37) (122%)
Louisville : 7.63 (+1.46) (123%)
ULL : 9.81 (+2.95) (143%)

So, we average 143% of our opponents average YPP given up.

LSU gives up 5.13 YPP vs 1A opponents (#35 overall), so Alabama is looking at roughly 7.34 YPP vs LSU. LSU gives up an average of 70 plays against, Alabama averages about 67 plays, so we'll say Alabama runs 68 plays. Alabama averages about 0.095 points per yard against P5 teams, so that comes out to a grand total of

68 plays, 7.34 YPP, 499 yards, 47 points

Nice stats, I agree with the conclusion!
This post was edited on 10/17/18 at 12:14 pm
Posted by UliKunkel
Member since Oct 2018
30 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:00 pm to
Nice research? Where do their future opponents rank (including us) when removing FCS opponents?
Posted by cyde
He gone
Member since Nov 2005
31793 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:01 pm to
LSU can't lose!
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
75917 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

WhereOrWere


Your fear is palpable.

Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
19725 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

So, here is how TuaJesus and Hurtsalot performed vs those teams averages you so nicely supplied to us

Texas A&M : 8.59 (+2.20)
Arkansas St : 8.21 (+2.48)
Arkansas : 10.83 (+5.08)
Ole Miss : 7.17 (+1.29)
Missouri : 7.52 (+1.37)
Louisville : 7.63 (+1.46)
ULL : 9.81 (+2.95)

So, we are average 143% of our opponents average YPP given up.

LSU gives up 5.13 YPP vs 1A opponents (#35 overall), so Alabama is looking at roughly 7.34 YPP vs LSU. LSU gives up an average of 70 plays against, Alabama averages about 67 plays, so we'll say Alabama runs 68 plays. Alabama averages about 0.09 points per yard, so that comes out to a grand total of

68 plays, 7.34 YPP, 499 yards, 45 points

Nice stats, I agree with the conclusion!
savage
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:12 pm to
But hey, you know what, LSU is probably going to hold us to a lower % of their yearly average I bet. Right? I mean, Death Valley, night time, big game. So let's say LSU holds us to 115% of their average for the year vs 1A teams. That's pretty good, much better than anyone else Alabama has played all year relative to their yearly average. And lets say they hold Alabama to 0.070 points per yard, because they are much better than the other opponents.

LSU gives up 5.13 YPP vs 1A opponents (#35 overall), so Alabama is looking at roughly 5.90 YPP vs LSU. LSU gives up an average of 70 plays against, Alabama averages about 67 plays, so we'll say Alabama runs 68 plays. Alabama averages about 0.070 points per yard against P5 teams, so that comes out to a grand total of

68 plays, 5.90 YPP, 401 yards, 28 points

This post was edited on 10/17/18 at 12:14 pm
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
43428 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:13 pm to
OP just got his shite pushed in.
Posted by WhereOrWere
Member since May 2013
2708 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

SummerOfGeorge


Posted by FairhopeTider
Fairhope, Alabama
Member since May 2012
20834 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

So, here is how TuaJesus and Hurtsalot performed vs those teams averages you so nicely supplied to us

Texas A&M : 8.59 (+2.20) (159%)
Arkansas St : 8.21 (+2.48) (143%)
Arkansas : 10.83 (+5.08) (188%)
Ole Miss : 7.17 (+1.29) (122%)
Missouri : 7.52 (+1.37) (122%)
Louisville : 7.63 (+1.46) (123%)
ULL : 9.81 (+2.95) (143%)

So, we are average 143% of our opponents average YPP given up.

LSU gives up 5.13 YPP vs 1A opponents (#35 overall), so Alabama is looking at roughly 7.34 YPP vs LSU. LSU gives up an average of 70 plays against, Alabama averages about 67 plays, so we'll say Alabama runs 68 plays. Alabama averages about 0.095 points per yard against P5 teams, so that comes out to a grand total of

68 plays, 7.34 YPP, 499 yards, 47 points

Nice stats, I agree with the conclusion!


That’s impossible! This is the year! It’s their turn!!!!
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

WhereOrWere


Posted by WhereOrWere
Member since May 2013
2708 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:16 pm to
No! Back to the drawing board I guess though.
This post was edited on 10/17/18 at 12:43 pm
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
19725 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

But hey, you know what, LSU is probably going to hold us to a lower % of their yearly average I bet. Right? I mean, Death Valley, night time, big game
nah, we literally own tiger stadium. Lsu pays us rent to play there
This post was edited on 10/17/18 at 12:19 pm
Posted by stephendomalley
alexandria
Member since Dec 2005
5945 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:00 pm to
only thing that scares alabama is Tua's knees.
Posted by UpToPar
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
22213 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

68 plays, 5.90 YPP, 401 yards, 28 points


I would honestly take this right now.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 10/17/18 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

I would honestly take this right now.



I'd say it's about where I expect things to be, honestly. Way less than most of our averages, more than LSU averages (but not absurdly more).

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