2015 Results relative to Returning Production and how we apply it for 2016

Some other posts using Bill Connely's returning experience chart game me an idea. So, the list basically breaks down "returning starters" into a better stat called "returning production" using various stats for various position groups to give you an idea how much of your core group is returning.

Here are the numbers that SEC teams had returning (production wise, not "starters") in 2015.

1. Vanderbilt (Off 74%, Def 91%)
2. Tennessee (Off 76%, Def 76%)
3. Kentucky (Off 79%, Def 72%)
4. LSU (Off 86%, Def 60%)
5. Arkansas (Off 81%, Def 56%)
6. Florida (Off 53%, Def 75%)
7. Mississippi State (Off 67%, Def 60%)
8. Ole Miss (Off 62%, Def 58%)
9. Texas A&M (Off 56%, Def 64%)
10. Georgia (Off 55%, Def 55%)
11. Missouri (Off 57%, Def 53%)
12. South Carolina (Off 30%, Def 67%)
13. Auburn (Off 34%, Def 57%)
14. Alabama (Off 26%, Def 64%)

Now, how about the changes in production from 2014 to 2015 for all of those teams? How does that correlate to change in experience?

Change in YPPA Def vs P5 Teams Rank
1. Texas A&M
2. Auburn
3. Tennessee
4. South Carolina
5. Mississippi State
6. Alabama
7. Vanderbilt
8. Missouri
9. Georgia
10. LSU
11. Florida
12. Kentucky
13. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas

Change in YPP Off vs P5 Teams Rank
1. LSU
2. Arkansas
3. Ole Miss
4. Tennessee
5. Kentucky
6. Florida
7. Vanderbilt
8. South Carolina
9. Mississippi State
10. Alabama
11. Texas A&M
12. Georgia
13. Missorui
14. Auburn

OFFENSE





DEFENSE







The ones that were more than 3 spots different from Returning Production vs Returning YPPA are below and most have a decent explanation

Offense
Ole Miss +4 : New QB ended up being more talented than old QB
Florida +5 : Will Grier's first half mainly
South Carolina +5 : not really sure
Alabama +4 : Henry is not a normal limited production returnee, 5-star Calvin Ridley, Kiffin coaching them up
Missouri -5 : Mauk did not actuall return, replaced with QB not ready to play

Defense
Auburn +9 : Muschamp really did a great job here
Missouri +6 : Great coaching only explanation
Texas A&M +5 : New coaching staff, learned to tackle
Georgia +4 : had to be coaching
Vanderbilt -6 : returning talent not as good as other teams returning talent
Florida -8 : had a very good unit in 2014, hard to improve much from it
Kentucky -8 : just a failure of a season really



So, in conclusion, I think if you look by a side of the ball basis those returning % groups can correlate pretty decently to improvement/decline on your prior year numbers. There will be some that are outside the norm, but most of those are due to great coaching (which should be known due to track records), injuries or new players who are better than old ones (Kelly vs Wallace).


Teams that should expect rises in their production (yards per play, yards per play against)

Offense
LSU (96%)
Tennessee (84%)
Missouri (82%)
Georgia (75%)

Defense
Arkansas (89%)
LSU (88%)
Vanderbilt (83%)
Tennessee (78%)
Georgia (76%)