2013 SEC Predictions by Brian Fremeau based on FEI ratings.

Projections with win total range and chance to win the SEC

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Spring practices have wrapped up across the country, and there's not much more data we can pull into our projection model for the fall. At Football Outsiders, factors such as five-year program ratings, returning starters, quarterback reliance and more have featured into the projections. We'll publish final projections based on play and drive efficiency in the Football Outsiders Almanac later this summer, but we can take a sneak peak at preliminary projections through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings.

For this series, we first ran preliminary projections for team, offense and defensive efficiency. Then we calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected record and win total range. Running the win likelihoods through 1,000 simulated seasons, we then calculated the frequency with which each team claimed a conference crown.

On Monday we're looking at the projections for the SEC, which features a handful of top programs with one team clearly favored to win the league title.

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West:
1.Alabama (11-1) (range: 10-2 to 12-0) (62%)
2. LSU (9-3) (range: 7-5 to 11-1) (8%)
3. A&M (9-3) (range: 7-5 to 11-1) (5%)
4. OM (7-5) (range: 5-7 to 9-3) (1%)
5. AU (6-6) (range 4-8 to 8-4) (0%)
6. MSU (5-7) (range 3-9 to 7-5) (0%)
7. AR (5-7) (range 3-9 to 7-5) (0%)

East:
1. USCe (9-3) (range: 7-5 to 11-1) (10%)
2. UGA (9-3) (range: 7-5 to 11-1) (7%)
3. UF (9-3) (range: 7-5 to 11-1) (7%)
4. Mizzou (7-5) (range: 5-7 to 9-3) (0%)
5. Vandy (6-6) (range: 4-8 to 8-4) (0%)
6. UT (5-7) (range: 3-9 to 7-5) (0%)
7. UK (4-8) (range: 2-10 to 6-6) (0%)

Chance to win the SEC:
1. Alabama 62%
2. USCe 10%
3. LSU 8%
T4. UGA 7%
T4. UF 7%

To see more about the FEI index click here.

For more stats stuff click here.