UT Match Ups - Conference Games Only

Rushing

MU Offense #6 172 ypg
UT Defense #10 191.67 ypg

Edge: Mizzou - Mizzou has to stick to the running game like they did with A&M. I don't expect another 200 yard game from Hansbrough, but they need to establish the run to make Mauk's life easier and to negate the UT pass rush.

UT Offense #10 147.33 ypg
MU Defense #3 118.67 ypg

Edge: Mizzou - I had thought UT was putting up more impressive numbers with Hurd than they really are, though they are still solid. Mizzou has been staunch against the run though. Containing Dobbs and maintaining gaps will be critical though.

Passing

MU Offense #14 134.3 ypg
UT Defense #6 209.5 ypg

Edge: UT - I'd love to say the passing game has changed at Mizzou, and it has, but this one is still no contest. UT is pretty solid defending the pass and even better getting after the passer. Mauk is going to have to avoid getting happy feet and avoid the panic throws he is susceptible of at times.

UT Offense #6 246.7 ypg
MU Defense #3 187.8 ypg

Edge: Mizzou - Dobbs' numbers throwing the ball are slightly better than Worley's but UT is the worst in the league at giving up sacks and with an apparently healthy Golden back, Webb and Penton back from their time outs, I'm giving an edge to Mizzou when UT throws the ball.

I don't know enough about the special teams other than I'd put up Marcus Murphy against almost anyone and I'd pretty much take anyone's kicker over ours. So call it a push.

At the end of the day, all the numbers probably don't matter. As always, it will probably come down to penalties and turnovers. UT(#3) far and away holds an edge on penalties, committing only 4.8 per game for 37.5 ypg. MU(#13) commits 9 per game for 68.2 ypg. Mizzou must be more disciplined this game. We saw in the A&M game how they can be drive killers.

As for turnovers, Mizzou fairs better, coming in #4 in the conference at a +0.33 turnover margin. UT comes in just the opposite, at #9 with a -0.33 turnover margin. Some will say that will change with Dobbs, and maybe it will. He has given up 2 of the 7 INT's in conference play but he threw against Bama, UK and SC whereas Worley with the other 5 threw against UGA, UF and OM. Additionally, Mizzou has only lost 1 fumble all year and UT has lost 5.

I'm going with Mizzou 34 UT 24