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Win % for each SEC West contender rest of season - per F+ ratings
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:34 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:34 am
Alabama 84.8% > Tennessee
Alabama 78.3% > LSU
Alabama 68.3% > Miss State
Alabama 68.3% > Auburn
MSU 97.8% > Kentucky
MSU 95.8% > Arkansas
Ole Miss 86.6% > LSU
Ole Miss 78.7% > Auburn
Ole Miss 96.7% > Arkansas
Ole Miss 78.7% > State
Auburn 92.2% > USCe
Auburn 98.0% > Texas A&M
Georgia 60.1% > Auburn
Alabama 78.3% > LSU
Alabama 68.3% > Miss State
Alabama 68.3% > Auburn
MSU 97.8% > Kentucky
MSU 95.8% > Arkansas
Ole Miss 86.6% > LSU
Ole Miss 78.7% > Auburn
Ole Miss 96.7% > Arkansas
Ole Miss 78.7% > State
Auburn 92.2% > USCe
Auburn 98.0% > Texas A&M
Georgia 60.1% > Auburn
9
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
LSU will run the table
(i only sort of believe that. maybe 3-1. still not sure about bama even though they've done some incredibly dumb stuff this year)
(i only sort of believe that. maybe 3-1. still not sure about bama even though they've done some incredibly dumb stuff this year)
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 10:38 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
According to?
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:36 am to DrunkenStuporMan
quote:
According to?
Bill Connely's F+ system
SEC Predictions - Week 8
F+ CFB Ratings
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 10:37 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
What are F+ ratings?
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:37 am to WDE24
Not sure but every team is favored to win all their games?
ETA: nm. I see.
ETA: nm. I see.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 10:38 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:37 am to WDE24
quote:
What are F+ ratings?
Football analytical analysis done by Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly at Football Outsiders. See links above.
Not always right but pretty solid.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
Auburn loses 3 more? Yikes.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:38 am to sorantable
quote:
Not sure but every team is favored to win all their games?
No, only sorted each teams games they are favored to win.
For instance, State picked to lose to Alabama and Ole Miss is sorted in UA and OM section. Same with Auburn.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:38 am to sorantable
quote:
Not sure but every team is favored to win all their games?
Not all.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
MSU 95.8% > Arkansas
Ole Miss 96.7% > Arkansas
surprising, i would have given msu the higher % myself given ole miss is in fayetteville and they have a nocturnal, large, semi-aquatic rodent as their coach.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:42 am to JuiceTerry
quote:
Auburn loses 3 more?
I've been saying they lose 5 all year. Need them to lose 4 more.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:43 am to piggilicious
Comparitavely, ESPN FPI win % for the same games
And keep in mind, ESPN FPI has Auburn #1 in the country right now. It's just hard to win on the road against elite teams.
Alabama 82.0% > Tennessee
Alabama 60.3% > LSU
Alabama 66.0% > MSU
Alabama 57.2% > Auburn
Auburn 88.3% > USCe
Auburn 79.8% > Texas A&M
Georgia 50.5% > Auburn
Ole Miss 56.8% > LSU
Ole Miss 53.7% > Auburn
Ole Miss 66.9% > Arkansas
Ole Miss 62.7% > MSU
MSU 82.4% > UK
MSU 75.6% > Arkansas
MSU 98.7% > Vanderbilt
And keep in mind, ESPN FPI has Auburn #1 in the country right now. It's just hard to win on the road against elite teams.
Alabama 82.0% > Tennessee
Alabama 60.3% > LSU
Alabama 66.0% > MSU
Alabama 57.2% > Auburn
Auburn 88.3% > USCe
Auburn 79.8% > Texas A&M
Georgia 50.5% > Auburn
Ole Miss 56.8% > LSU
Ole Miss 53.7% > Auburn
Ole Miss 66.9% > Arkansas
Ole Miss 62.7% > MSU
MSU 82.4% > UK
MSU 75.6% > Arkansas
MSU 98.7% > Vanderbilt
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:44 am to SummerOfGeorge
F+ and ESPN seems to basically agree on a lot but seem to disagree on Ole Miss. ESPN sees LSU, Auburn and State as much closer matchups than F+.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:46 am to SummerOfGeorge
The ESPN numbers look more in line with my opinion on most of those games.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:47 am to SummerOfGeorge
I don't see how they have ole miss favored so heavily over state. Would be more 50-50 IMO at this point. Both teams have dominated everyone they played
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:49 am to WDE24
quote:
The ESPN numbers look more in line with my opinion on most of those games.
Yea - though I think Connelly's figures tend to equate anything less than 60% to pretty much a toss-up.
Here are his %'s in terms of picks this season
Teams 50-60% winning = 18-19 (49%)
Teams 60-70% winning = 66-40 (62%)
Teams 70-80% winning = 91-22 (81%)
Teams 80-90% winning = 88-15 (85%)
Teams 90-100 winning = 68-2 (97%)
So his % are pretty close to being solid. If he has you as a 70-100% chance to win chances are high you are going to win.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:50 am to deltaland
quote:
I don't see how they have ole miss favored so heavily over state. Would be more 50-50 IMO at this point. Both teams have dominated everyone they played
All based on analytical analysis of 100 different things as well as location of game factored in. Not to mention a 6.2/10 chance to win is not exactly a heavy favorite. It basically means they are a tossup at a neutral site.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 10:51 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
Interesting math...I think I'll still watch the games. 
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 10:56 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:58 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Ole Miss 86.6% > LSU
Ole Miss 78.7% > Auburn
Ole Miss 96.7% > Arkansas
Ole Miss 78.7% > State
I don't know what these figures are based on, but they're terribly high.
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