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Missouri will beat Georgia (and here's why)
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:15 pm
Less than 2/3 of Murray's passes were complete when he had all of his top receivers and both great running backs to make the play-action work.
Now, the guys playing receiver are notorious ball-droppers. McGowan in particular. And Conley is the one who SHOULD have dropped the ball in the SECCG, but instead caught it, and lost the game.
Furthermore, the Missouri defense isn't going to be forced to respect the inside run, so pass coverage should be even tighter than anything Murray has seen this year, with Mizzou's multiple 3-4 and 3-3-5 fronts (which you can read all about on page 1 of the mizzou board, topic title "Mizzou's Front Seven"... I'll edit to link in just a moment ETA for link). In that topic, you'll also find out that Mizzou's two DE's have split the SEC Def Lineman of the Week in every week but one. They may not get a sack on Murray, but they will keep him moving around, and throwing some balls away.
Georgia's defense hasn't been able to shut down anyone. There's no reason to believe they are going to have a break-out game and shut down Mizzou. The players are what they are... young and stupid. They say it never gets easy, but it gets less difficult. For these guys, it's going to be difficult for quite a while.
I do believe you'll get some TFL's for a lineman like Smith, I think you'll get a sack from Floyd and Ray Drew, Jenkins might share a sack, but as a unit, when it really matters on 3rd down (and 4th down), UGA's defense just isn't getting it done. For a full statistical breakdown on this, UGA's opponents this year converting 3rd and 4th downs vs UGA vs the rest of the field, to see how abysmal it is, go to the Dawg Rant, first page, topic by FooManChoo. eta for link I'll link that in a minute too.
So what is the conclusion?
Aaron Murray will play good football, but all of the pieces around him are 2nd and 3rd team (and 4th team!). He is starting this game with the same lineup you'd expect to see when UGA is up 42-3 on Furman in the 4th quarter... the kind of lineup we call "garbage time" because you just expect to start sucking statistically at that point. It's the kind of line-up that many statisticians simply throw out the numbers from because it isn't representative of the team's capability. Except in this instance.. it will be.
Mizzou wins, and wins ugly. Mizzou gets the confidence to believe they can contend for the East. They get the confidence to play harder and smarter for the rest of the season, and by damn, they just might do it.
Now, the guys playing receiver are notorious ball-droppers. McGowan in particular. And Conley is the one who SHOULD have dropped the ball in the SECCG, but instead caught it, and lost the game.
Furthermore, the Missouri defense isn't going to be forced to respect the inside run, so pass coverage should be even tighter than anything Murray has seen this year, with Mizzou's multiple 3-4 and 3-3-5 fronts (which you can read all about on page 1 of the mizzou board, topic title "Mizzou's Front Seven"... I'll edit to link in just a moment ETA for link). In that topic, you'll also find out that Mizzou's two DE's have split the SEC Def Lineman of the Week in every week but one. They may not get a sack on Murray, but they will keep him moving around, and throwing some balls away.
Georgia's defense hasn't been able to shut down anyone. There's no reason to believe they are going to have a break-out game and shut down Mizzou. The players are what they are... young and stupid. They say it never gets easy, but it gets less difficult. For these guys, it's going to be difficult for quite a while.
I do believe you'll get some TFL's for a lineman like Smith, I think you'll get a sack from Floyd and Ray Drew, Jenkins might share a sack, but as a unit, when it really matters on 3rd down (and 4th down), UGA's defense just isn't getting it done. For a full statistical breakdown on this, UGA's opponents this year converting 3rd and 4th downs vs UGA vs the rest of the field, to see how abysmal it is, go to the Dawg Rant, first page, topic by FooManChoo. eta for link I'll link that in a minute too.
So what is the conclusion?
Aaron Murray will play good football, but all of the pieces around him are 2nd and 3rd team (and 4th team!). He is starting this game with the same lineup you'd expect to see when UGA is up 42-3 on Furman in the 4th quarter... the kind of lineup we call "garbage time" because you just expect to start sucking statistically at that point. It's the kind of line-up that many statisticians simply throw out the numbers from because it isn't representative of the team's capability. Except in this instance.. it will be.
Mizzou wins, and wins ugly. Mizzou gets the confidence to believe they can contend for the East. They get the confidence to play harder and smarter for the rest of the season, and by damn, they just might do it.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:16 pm to deeprig9
Damn. Already making excuses.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:16 pm to deeprig9
or you could just say murray usually chokes
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:20 pm to deeprig9
I agree with everything you said....35 24 Dwags
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:22 pm to deeprig9
the ole reverse jinx.
Our secondary sucks balls. Hopefully they keep the pressure on Murray to make it a game, because if he's got time he's eating us up.
Our secondary sucks balls. Hopefully they keep the pressure on Murray to make it a game, because if he's got time he's eating us up.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:23 pm to deeprig9
I will jizz all over the place for about 10 consecutive days if what deeprig9 predicts comes true. However, the thing people aren't talking about much is the line play on Georgia's side. Your o-line is, in fact, completely healthy, and far and away better than anything Mizzou has come remotely close to playing this year. Even if your running game is close to non-existent due to the RBs being out, its still not a given that we can get to Murray at all. Our DEs have played well, but against teams like Vandy, Indiana and Toledo.
Usually, the best Mizzou teams of the Pinkel era run tino their waterloo in the trenches. The elite teams can still push you around and that in turn dicates everything else that happens on the field. Our 2007 team that went 12-2 could very easily have played in the national title game if it could have beaten the Oklahoma Sooners, and at the skill positions we matched them well. But we got mauled in the trenches by OU both times we played them that year and that was all that mattered for the outcome of those games.
I just can't see Mizzou being able to do much of anything against UGA using a 3 man front. Even a third string RB who is new to the position will probably wind up with gaping holes created by your o-line that he can exploit. And I think your d-line will put more pressure on our QB James Franklin than he has seen all year, and I don't know how well he will respond.
Realizing I may have gotten hooked here in given a super serial response to OP. But whether it was bait or not, the above is still what I think will the game's main actual storylines.
Usually, the best Mizzou teams of the Pinkel era run tino their waterloo in the trenches. The elite teams can still push you around and that in turn dicates everything else that happens on the field. Our 2007 team that went 12-2 could very easily have played in the national title game if it could have beaten the Oklahoma Sooners, and at the skill positions we matched them well. But we got mauled in the trenches by OU both times we played them that year and that was all that mattered for the outcome of those games.
I just can't see Mizzou being able to do much of anything against UGA using a 3 man front. Even a third string RB who is new to the position will probably wind up with gaping holes created by your o-line that he can exploit. And I think your d-line will put more pressure on our QB James Franklin than he has seen all year, and I don't know how well he will respond.
Realizing I may have gotten hooked here in given a super serial response to OP. But whether it was bait or not, the above is still what I think will the game's main actual storylines.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:23 pm to deeprig9
Lolz. Keeping the streak alive, rig.
Don't mess with the mojo. Amirite?
Here's to a good game tomorrow.
Don't mess with the mojo. Amirite?
Here's to a good game tomorrow.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:24 pm to Mizzou Fan in Da ATX
quote:
I will jizz all over the place for about 10 consecutive days
You can borrow my jar
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:27 pm to deeprig9
Deeprig,
I know what you're doing. You're an extremely superstitious person.
You don't really believe what you posted, but you're doing your best to force Fate's hand.
I know what you're doing. You're an extremely superstitious person.
You don't really believe what you posted, but you're doing your best to force Fate's hand.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 4:29 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:28 pm to deeprig9
quote:
so pass coverage should be even tighter than anything Murray has seen this year,
You must not be aware of our pass coverage. Any D-back who is within seven yards of the WR at pre-snap is immediately removed & replaced by a teammate who keeps a ten-yard bubble between himself & the WR. It wouldn't change if we were playing OU in their Wishbone heyday.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:29 pm to deeprig9
quote:
Mizzou wins, and wins ugly. Mizzou gets the confidence to believe they can contend for the East. They get the confidence to play harder and smarter for the rest of the season, and by damn, they just might do it.
Rep your team, mann.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 5:07 pm to deeprig9
Dear god, if that happens then the mizzou jizzfest on the board will be unbearable.
If this starts to happen can the admins make a Georgia-mizzou score board and leave it open all week.
If this starts to happen can the admins make a Georgia-mizzou score board and leave it open all week.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 5:10 pm to Cockopotamus
quote:
Cockopotamus
Best name on this site
Posted on 10/11/13 at 5:11 pm to white perch
psychologicalizationing
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