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Living up to the hype - how teams finish compared to preseason rankings

Posted on 3/13/13 at 12:54 pm
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 12:54 pm
SIAP. Interesting stuff here.

Some guy took a decade's worth of preseason and final polls, cooked the numbers, and came up with a list.

Here you go, most overrated (meaning started high and finished low) to underrated.

Tennessee
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Auburn
Missouri
Texas A&M
Vandy
Arkansas
Miss State
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Alabama

Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
33377 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 12:55 pm to
Posted by LSUNV
In the woods or on the water
Member since Feb 2011
22422 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 12:55 pm to
No Kentucky list is crap
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86438 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 12:57 pm to
Some of that could be incredibly skewed though. A team could finish ranked exactly where they started 9 times out of 10, then in one year be preseason ranked 1 and finish unranked and they would be like the 3 most overrated team on this list.

Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:00 pm to
quote:

No Kentucky list is crap


According to the story, Kentucky isn't on the list because they neither started nor finished ranked any of the last 10 years.

It also says as bad as UT looks, Oklahoma was 2x worse, with a final rating of -69.
Posted by Athens Gator
A brain divided.
Member since Mar 2011
239 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:09 pm to
Florida got screwed by the 2010 season.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

Some of that could be incredibly skewed though. A team could finish ranked exactly where they started 9 times out of 10, then in one year be preseason ranked 1 and finish unranked and they would be like the 3 most overrated team on this list.


Yeah, the methodology's got flaws but it makes for good off season discussion.
Posted by LSUNV
In the woods or on the water
Member since Feb 2011
22422 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:13 pm to
2007 says hi
Posted by piggilicious
Member since Jan 2011
37295 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:13 pm to
yeah, i bet we were near the top (well bottom) before this past season that swung us the other way.
Posted by Patton
Principality of Sealand
Member since Apr 2011
32652 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:14 pm to
Tell it I say hi back
Posted by BrerTiger
Valley of the Long Grey Cloud
Member since Sep 2011
21506 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

LSU


So basically, LSU has been a disappointment in the season immediately following an appearance in the BCS Championship game (2004, 2008, 2012).

Every other season we were pretty much in line with preseason expectations.

In 2003, we greatly exceeded expecatations.

Not really anything shocking here.

Kudos to Bama for living up to expectations or exceeding them 3 out of the last 4 years.
Posted by elposter
Member since Dec 2010
24863 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:22 pm to
As I suspected - Alabama is vastly underrated by the media. Tired of Alabama's football program having to fight the clear media bias against it and get the respect it deserves.
Posted by genro
Member since Nov 2011
61788 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

Tired of Alabama's football program having to fight the clear media bias against it and get the respect it deserves.
Bad enough the SEC screws us and gives us a gauntlet schedule every single year.
Posted by DynastyDawg
Relf-Coast
Member since Jan 2013
10886 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:26 pm to
quote:

As I suspected - Alabama is vastly underrated by the media. Tired of Alabama's football program having to fight the clear media bias against it and get the respect it deserves.


This is a joke, right?
Posted by Buck_Nasty
Corndog Nation
Member since Feb 2013
1724 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

As I suspected - Alabama is vastly underrated by the media. Tired of Alabama's football program having to fight the clear media bias against it and get the respect it deserves.



Posted by Patton
Principality of Sealand
Member since Apr 2011
32652 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:27 pm to
No it's serious.
Posted by BrerTiger
Valley of the Long Grey Cloud
Member since Sep 2011
21506 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:28 pm to
LSU, Georgia and Florida are the only schools in the preseason rankings for all 10 years.

Print the T shirts.

Also, falling out of the polls should count for more. If you fall out of the polls but still received votes, they should calculate what your ranking would be based on votes received at end of year.

In other words, they are underpenalizing teams who drop out of the top 25 by making their final ranking in essence #26 instead of using the actual votes received (or not received at all) to calculate the true year end ranking. You could do the same with preseason votes received -- where they are underrewarding unranked preseason teams by treating unranked as the equivalent of #26 in the poll.
Posted by elposter
Member since Dec 2010
24863 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

This is a joke, right?


Did you read the link? It's right there. The media vastly underrates Alabama football.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86438 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

Alabama is vastly underrated by the media. Tired of Alabama's football program having to fight the clear media bias against it and get the respect it deserves.


Since saban started rolling yall have been given a great deal of respect. Using overall delta is a terrible way to look at this. Break it down by year and we see this, going back as far as the author of the blog did:

03- start 23, finish UR. Overrated slightly
04- start UR, finish UR. Ranked correctly
05- start 21, finish 8. Underrated greatly
06- start UR, finish UR. Ranked correctly
07- start UR, finish UR. Ranked correctly.

That's only 1 of the 5 years you were really underrated.

08- start 24, finish 6. Underrated greatly
09- start 6, finish 1. Underrated slightly
10- start 1, finish 10. Overrated
11- start 1, finish 1. Ranked correctly
12- start 2, finish 1. Ranked correctly.

Even when saban hit another gear, you were only really underrated one time, and it was coming off a 7-6 year. 09 you were slightly underrated, but I mean you were ranked 6th preseason so it's not like you weren't getting any love. The rest were appropriate.

Posted by Froman
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2007
36203 posts
Posted on 3/13/13 at 1:33 pm to
That's one of the most retarded things I've ever read.
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