re: Severe Weather Thread

SPC update this morning

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It's days like today that I just adore being in outside sales!!!

Rainboots for me today and if any docs don't like it - frick 'em!

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Plus baseball and bike helmets

This thing is really gonna have to ramp up this afternoon if it's gonna go severe

Most of north landmass has had nothing but clouds for 2 days so I'm not sure the instability is there

1030 AM CST Update from the SPC:

MID AND LOWER OH VALLEY SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
FEW CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK AND
ASSOCIATED FORECAST REASONING. BROADLY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MODEST HEATING WILL PERMIT GRADUAL WARM
SECTOR DESTABILIZATION...EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NEWD. THIS DESTABILIZATION
IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES -- INCLUDING A FEW STRONG/LONG-LIVED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

PRESENCE OF CAPPING EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOBS CASTS UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE INITIAL ONSET OF SEVERE
WEATHER. BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LA/MS/WRN TN VICINITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT -- THOUGH LIKELY NOT YET
PURELY SURFACE-BASED. A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION ALSO CONTINUES
INVOF THE FRONT...FROM SW OF STL SSWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO
WRN LA. A GRADUAL INCREASE -- BOTH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- OF
ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A MIX OF BOTH DISCRETE AND
SEGMENTED LINEAR MODES ANTICIPATED. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PRESENT/INCREASING...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO RISK
IS LIKEWISE PROGGED TO EVOLVE/INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH RISK LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM
ROUGHLY THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

Gettin some sunshine now in northeast Miss. Not. Good.

Tornado Warning for Jasper, Scott and Smith Counties in MS until 2:45 PM CST

Shaping up to be wild afternoon in the I59 corridor. Tap from the Gulf is wide open. Got the low level jet flowing in from SW and the low is tapping the Gulf with SE flow. Differential speed with height and differental direction with height.

This train of lows should keep coming into March and April, with more fuel in play. Could be a wild spring in the deep south.

You can see the general SW to NE flow along the cloudline. Now watch the clouds from Mobile toward the tornado warned area. Flowing in SE to NW. Where they meet is the "danger zone"

Get in the bathtub.