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re: Anyone care to guess what this national security press conference will be about?
Posted on 11/25/15 at 4:40 pm to Evolved Simian
Posted on 11/25/15 at 4:40 pm to Evolved Simian
Saban to Texas
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Posted on 11/25/15 at 6:25 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
No, not really.
In terms of sheer numbers the Russian military is significantly stronger, but in terms of what could be brought to bear in theater Turkey holds all the cards.
There is no common border. To reach Turkey from Russia, any aircraft would have to overfly hostile nations or the Black Sea. Turkish interceptors would operate from their own bases under a SAM umbrella.
Those limitations are even more restrictive when applied to ground forces. No land border and virtually no amphibious capability means Russia simply cannot get to Turkey without also invading other nations.
Finally, there is the naval option. The Black Sea fleet is vastly weaker than the Turkish navy and could also be easily bottled up. If Russia committed their entire fleet, they would have an advantage in naval power but that would be mitigated by the fact that they would be operating under hostile skies with little air support and very limited resupply.
No, short of using nukes there is no map at all that would lead to a Russian victory. At most Putin could launch cruise missile strikes but these can be intercepted and he has a limited supply.
I would disagree. Russia has allies in Syria and Iran, Turkey's home field advantage wouldn't last that long. Russia would get manpower and materiel there, north to south along the Caspian. Wouldn't take that much time. Iran and Syria would not tell Russia 'no'. And, in contrast to what you see as Turkish strengths, their isolation would prevent them from interfering in Russia's build up. Turkey doesn't have that kind of reach.
Russia would get their people and supplies into Syria and Iran with zero interference and from there, face little resistance until crossing into Turkey. They hardly have to fight for entry into theater.
Russian aircraft would base in Syria and Iran. That would put Turkey in a bad position. Go across the border and end up fighting 3 nations, or just one.
SAM umbrellas are movable and Russia has some good equipment. And rumors have gone around for years that Russia and Iran (and China) have radar that will sniff out our stealth aircraft. If that's the case, it'll have no problem providing early warning on F16's and the like. I believe the only reason we haven't see the US or Israel act on Iran's nuke program is because this radar stuff is legit. I have a feeling there will be some ugly surprises in the future with regard to Russian/Iranian/Chinese radar and air defense systems. I hope I'm wrong.
Russian SAM's and radar equipment would augment Iran's and Syria's and it wouldn't take long for the border regions to be fully contested, not controlled by Turkey. Russia would use its numbers to gain advantage at some point and gain control of the air, allowing land forces to get a foothold in Turkey.
Russia would assault from Iran, east to west, leap frogging through complex terrain with armor, rotary wing, MANPADs, and would do no worse than parity in air to air. Complex terrain would seriously hinder the ability of aircraft like the F16, which already has short time on station, from impacting Russia's land forces. Turkey doesn't have many F16 variants or F4 variants that can carry HARM's, I believe. So, they may not be able to carry out much SEAD, but instead will have to 'deal with it'.
Also, Turkey has very little capability for rotary wing attack, advantage Russia on that one. And Russia will definitely put the HIND into play which will be hard on Turkish land forces and protect Russian land forces no matter the terrain. This disparity is a big deal, especially considering most of Turkey's tanks are very old M-60 and M-48 - so survivability in those platforms is limited.
They would slowly build forces in Syria and launch air strikes from Syria. When they control the NE part of Turkey, from Iran, and have a large force built up in Syria, Turkey will have three choices: get help from NATO (probably won't happen, NATO doesn't want WWIII), negotiate with Russia, or get swallowed up by a two-axis attack that converges at Ankara.
Russia's buildup should not be ignored. Turkey wouldn't be a pushover for them, but given their alliance with Syria and Iran, Russia definitely comes out on top. Once that thing got going, Russia's rate of success and advance would accelerate.
Basically, Mother Russia is back and the Cold War is back on, assuming we can keep it from going hot. Time to go back to wearing greens, patent leather jump boots polished to a mirror shine, alert drills, and all that fun.
Posted on 11/25/15 at 7:22 pm to sullivanct19a
You are talking about WW3 with that scenario because that would absolutely invoke the NATO charter. I'm talking about Russia's ability to retaliate in a manner that does not trigger a global conflict.
As far as Russian capabilities go, you don't need to look much further than their invasion of Georgia to see that they are seriously lacking. Their own reports paint a very poor picture of how they performed.
You are vastly overestimating what they can do.
As far as Russian capabilities go, you don't need to look much further than their invasion of Georgia to see that they are seriously lacking. Their own reports paint a very poor picture of how they performed.
You are vastly overestimating what they can do.
Posted on 11/25/15 at 8:36 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
You are vastly overestimating what they can do.
Better the vastly underestimating what they can do
Posted on 11/25/15 at 10:22 pm to Agforlife
quote:
Better the vastly underestimating what they can do
If I am the US SECDEF, I assume they are the best out there it when comparing how they would fare against a different nation in a regional conflict, I'm going to handicap it based on known information.
Seriously, if anyone is interested look up the details of their Georgia operation. Close air support was ineffective and uncoordinated. The Georgians bagged a TU-22 strategic bomber. They ambushed and destroyed a Russian column, seriously wounding the commanding general. The Russians never gained full control of the air. The Georgian Air Force consisted of a dozen warplanes and yet was still flying offensive sorties at the end of the war.
They simply are not up to the standard of a modern western power.
This post was edited on 11/25/15 at 10:23 pm
Posted on 11/26/15 at 12:29 pm to sullivanct19a
quote:
Turkey would have to have a lot of help. Russia would defeat them.
How? Russia can't even put in two divisions in Syria because they can't keep them supplied.
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