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re: 2016 Presidential Election: Trump vs Clinton
Posted on 10/25/16 at 3:02 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
Posted on 10/25/16 at 3:02 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
Plus an Idaho poll showing Trump up by 29 points
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 3:04 pm
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Posted on 10/25/16 at 3:55 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
trump's got this locked up. the polls had Carter beating Reagan, then Reagan won in a landslide. i cannot believe more people like dyin' lyin' HIllary than the scandalous and funny DJT.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 4:15 pm to Tillman
So Tillman, which State will be the most surprising Trump state on Election Day?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 4:40 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
I never thought I'd see the day when Arizona or Texas goes blue. Whatever one thinks of that, it's certainly newsworthy
Posted on 10/25/16 at 4:44 pm to BarkRuffalo
I'm pulling for all the States that border Mexico to be blue in this election.
How awesome of a message would that be?
How awesome of a message would that be?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 4:45 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
none that I can think of.
i won't be surprised if he wins Virginia, he has property there, or PA, where his trade and manufacturing base and fracking / energy message resonates. Florida is his home state. i can't see him losing NC if Romney won it and Obama only won by the slimmest of margins against the GOP's worst all time candidate McCain.
of the so called swing states, VIrginia is the one he most likely to lose due to the DC liberals.
i think he wins OH, NC, FL, NH, Iowa, CO, NV. Virginia, Arizona are toss up but hep robably takes at least one. I won't be surprised to see him win Wisconsin and he will win Indiana easily. I htink Obama may have won Indiana.
i won't be surprised if he wins Virginia, he has property there, or PA, where his trade and manufacturing base and fracking / energy message resonates. Florida is his home state. i can't see him losing NC if Romney won it and Obama only won by the slimmest of margins against the GOP's worst all time candidate McCain.
of the so called swing states, VIrginia is the one he most likely to lose due to the DC liberals.
i think he wins OH, NC, FL, NH, Iowa, CO, NV. Virginia, Arizona are toss up but hep robably takes at least one. I won't be surprised to see him win Wisconsin and he will win Indiana easily. I htink Obama may have won Indiana.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 4:49 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 4:48 pm to Tillman
Out of the states you listed, Virginia would be the most surprising to go red, in my opinion.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 4:49 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
it is traditionally a red state, and I don't think Kaine is that popular there.
Obama's not on the ticket anymore and Hillary doesn't have Obama's popularity lol
the candidate with the most charisma usually wins
there have been thousands of democrats who registered to vote Republican in FL, PA, NC, etc.
the average male hates Hillary. lol her shrill voice, personality, militant feminist, hates guns, etc
Trump can still win if he loses Virginia but in that scenario I think he must win PA, or sweep smaller states like NH, CO, and NV
a college professor who has prediced the last 5 presidents accurately has picked Trump.
the poll that got Obama's percentage of victory in 2012 exactly right has Trump up or tied in recent polls. The investor's business daily poll, i think. Rasmuseen has shown a tie too or slight lead for Trump.
Obama's not on the ticket anymore and Hillary doesn't have Obama's popularity lol
the candidate with the most charisma usually wins
there have been thousands of democrats who registered to vote Republican in FL, PA, NC, etc.
the average male hates Hillary. lol her shrill voice, personality, militant feminist, hates guns, etc
Trump can still win if he loses Virginia but in that scenario I think he must win PA, or sweep smaller states like NH, CO, and NV
a college professor who has prediced the last 5 presidents accurately has picked Trump.
the poll that got Obama's percentage of victory in 2012 exactly right has Trump up or tied in recent polls. The investor's business daily poll, i think. Rasmuseen has shown a tie too or slight lead for Trump.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:01 pm to Tillman
We shall see! I don't think Trump cracks above 200 electoral votes. Something around 175 seems most likely, maybe worse.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:07 pm to Tillman
I can see Trump winning 321 to 217, basically a blowout.
Trump had most GOP votes in republican primary history to include Reagan who dominated in his twon election wins. Reagan only lost 1 state against Mondale, Mondale's home state lol.
doesn't make any sense to conclude DJT gets blown out by a very unpopular Democrat.
Trump had most GOP votes in republican primary history to include Reagan who dominated in his twon election wins. Reagan only lost 1 state against Mondale, Mondale's home state lol.
doesn't make any sense to conclude DJT gets blown out by a very unpopular Democrat.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:08 pm to Tillman
You have California or New York going red?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:11 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
i have WI, NV, AZ, CO, VA, FL, NC, OH, NH, IA, PA going red.
if I spot Hillary Wi and VA, trump still wins 298 to 240.
If I also give Hillary PA, Trump still wins 278 to 260. he actually has a much easier path than i realized.
i think he may win Maine too which has a GOP govneor that was strong trump supporter.
i wouldn't be surprised if he won MI and/or MN.
if Hillary wins, she will do so while losing the white and male vote in my view. it will be more proof that legal and illegal immigration has changed this country probably forever. Obama lost the white vote by 20 points in 2012 and still cruised to victory.
i actually had one feasible scenario in which they tie at 269. lol
that will probably happen...seems like would be fitting end to this weird election cycle
if I spot Hillary Wi and VA, trump still wins 298 to 240.
If I also give Hillary PA, Trump still wins 278 to 260. he actually has a much easier path than i realized.
i think he may win Maine too which has a GOP govneor that was strong trump supporter.
i wouldn't be surprised if he won MI and/or MN.
if Hillary wins, she will do so while losing the white and male vote in my view. it will be more proof that legal and illegal immigration has changed this country probably forever. Obama lost the white vote by 20 points in 2012 and still cruised to victory.
i actually had one feasible scenario in which they tie at 269. lol
that will probably happen...seems like would be fitting end to this weird election cycle
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 5:20 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:24 pm to Tillman
What is this based on?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:41 pm to BarkRuffalo
gut
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:02 pm to Tillman
Donald?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:07 pm to Tillman
I honestly only think three scenarios happen
Hillary blows out trump. He carries the solid reds and loses 300- high 100s
Trumps sneaks it in 270-269 ish. Winning PA, Fl, CO, and Ohio.
Trump dominates everything that isn't NY, Washington, Cali, Oregon, and Mass.
I don't think Hillary wins a close one.
Hillary blows out trump. He carries the solid reds and loses 300- high 100s
Trumps sneaks it in 270-269 ish. Winning PA, Fl, CO, and Ohio.
Trump dominates everything that isn't NY, Washington, Cali, Oregon, and Mass.
I don't think Hillary wins a close one.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:15 pm to BarkRuffalo
Nate Silver is the best. Huge nerd. Pretty much always right!
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:29 pm to IStandBytheU
nate silver has been wrong about a lot this year. he said trump wouldn't win the GOP nomination and would flame out. then Trump won most votes in GOP history. lol
here is a good article about 7 times SIlver has been wrong this year about Trump. LINK
here is a good article about 7 times SIlver has been wrong this year about Trump. LINK
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 6:31 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:37 pm to Tillman
Did anyone think Trump was going to win the nomination?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:45 pm to IStandBytheU
i did after the first debate. Cruz would have had a shot if the Rubio and Bush people had rallied aorund him sooner but the Rubio people kept voting for him, and it cost a ton of electoral votes for Cruz. for example cruz would have won Missouri if not for rubio voters. i think that was a winner take all state, or take most state.
i think carson also stayed in longer than he should have, probably to help trump
but Silver is construed as a nerd who always gets it right but he was as conventional wisdom as could be this year and thus got it wrong. he's not that smart anyway.
i think carson also stayed in longer than he should have, probably to help trump
but Silver is construed as a nerd who always gets it right but he was as conventional wisdom as could be this year and thus got it wrong. he's not that smart anyway.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 6:55 pm
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