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re: ESPN gives Mizzou a 20% chance to win on Saturday.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 4:29 pm to WVUFanInTN423
Posted on 8/29/16 at 4:29 pm to WVUFanInTN423
quote:
score 23 against Bama on a neutral field with brand new QB, RB's and WR's 2 years ago... I think we can handle getting 17 with an experienced offense in our home stadium against Mizzou.
How many do you think you're gonna score? 40? 50? Transitive works so well in college sports.
1
Posted on 8/29/16 at 4:32 pm to the808bass
quote:
How many do you think you're gonna score? 40? 50? Transitive works so well in college sports.
I said 27-17 WVU, but I could see us scoring in the 30's and Mizzou in the 20's.
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 4:38 pm
Posted on 8/29/16 at 4:43 pm to WVUFanInTN423
That's rational.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 5:39 pm to WVUFanInTN423
quote:
an offense that averaged something 35 ppg
Against who? WVU's adjusted offensive efficiency was 65th in the nation.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 5:49 pm to WVUFanInTN423
Well, one of us will be in for a surprise. Our D is very good. We have some elite players, then a bushel of very good ones. We have experience/depth and you simply will not find a better coached unit.
Should be fun.
Should be fun.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 6:16 pm to navynuke
quote:
Against who? WVU's adjusted offensive efficiency was 65th in the nation.
I could ask the same about Mizzou's defense. You guys played a bunch of teams without a pulse on offense. Uconn, UGA, UK, UF, SE Missouri, Vanderbilt, South Carolina.
I know you guys have a good defense, but some of your fans act like they're the 85 Bears.
Vegas knows more than either of us and they see 50+ points and have WVU as an 11 point favorite.
We'll see how it goes. Should be fun.
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 6:21 pm
Posted on 8/29/16 at 6:21 pm to WVUFanInTN423
Vegas sets lines to get people to bet. They aren't picking winners or scores.
Again, I feel like there is a disconnect between leagues here. Big 12 is about offense. SEC is about defense. It's a totally different style of play.
Whomever can make the other team play their style likely wins.
Again, I feel like there is a disconnect between leagues here. Big 12 is about offense. SEC is about defense. It's a totally different style of play.
Whomever can make the other team play their style likely wins.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 6:23 pm to JesusQuintana
quote:
Vegas sets lines to get people to bet. They aren't picking winners or scores.
Again, I feel like there is a disconnect between leagues here. Big 12 is about offense. SEC is about defense. It's a totally different style of play.
Whomever can make the other team play their style likely wins.
Vegas sets lines how they think it will play out. They adjust lines based on the betting action. The line has moved from -11.5 down to -9.5 and back up to -10.5.
It's pretty amazing how often their lines are right on the money. Not always, but most of the time.
I agree with you about how different the leagues are. I think the biggest misconception about the Big 12 is that nobody can play defense. The biggest difference is the no huddle tempo that Big 12 offenses play at. When you're running 30 more plays per game than teams in other conferences there are gonna be more points scored.
I guess same could be said for SEC offenses. Not that the offenses are so bad, but they play at a slower tempo and grind games out more.
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 6:41 pm
Posted on 8/29/16 at 6:26 pm to MIZZOU_JP
It's ESPN. All they care about CFB-wise is Harbaugh, McCaffrey, Watson, Fournette, and Saban. Literally they talked about nothing else the entire offseason.
I also love it how only people who don't follow up with Mizzou at all act like we're gonna be god awful this year. It's always the "Big Six" blowhards like Aschoff, Finebaum, and Stinchcomb that say Mizzou is done before the season starts. I bet they can't name six players from our roster, yet they say we've got the worst in the SEC
I also love it how only people who don't follow up with Mizzou at all act like we're gonna be god awful this year. It's always the "Big Six" blowhards like Aschoff, Finebaum, and Stinchcomb that say Mizzou is done before the season starts. I bet they can't name six players from our roster, yet they say we've got the worst in the SEC
Posted on 8/29/16 at 6:38 pm to WVUFanInTN423
I'll say this. WVU might be the most interesting non-con Mizzou has had since we've joined the SEC. You could make a case for either team.
You've got a solid QB in Skyler Howard and a quick-game offense that can neutralize a pass rush. WVU is completely feast-or-famine with the defensive scheme, a lot like Houston. Their blitz packages can confuse a pretty green offensive line.
On the other hand, Mizzou has one of the deeper defensive lines in the SEC, led by two defensive masterminds. Cross has the Gary Patterson influences, and Odom is another guy who likes to blitz wisely and divorce the front from the coverage call, creating simpler defenses. It'll be interesting to see how Yodney Cajuste can handle Harris' spin move. Shipp has changed Mizzou from being an attacking line to a read-and-react DL. Will we still see the same production? Can our OL back up their praise they've received during summer camp and move WVU's down three?
I'm psyched.
You've got a solid QB in Skyler Howard and a quick-game offense that can neutralize a pass rush. WVU is completely feast-or-famine with the defensive scheme, a lot like Houston. Their blitz packages can confuse a pretty green offensive line.
On the other hand, Mizzou has one of the deeper defensive lines in the SEC, led by two defensive masterminds. Cross has the Gary Patterson influences, and Odom is another guy who likes to blitz wisely and divorce the front from the coverage call, creating simpler defenses. It'll be interesting to see how Yodney Cajuste can handle Harris' spin move. Shipp has changed Mizzou from being an attacking line to a read-and-react DL. Will we still see the same production? Can our OL back up their praise they've received during summer camp and move WVU's down three?
I'm psyched.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 6:45 pm to Mizzou59
quote:
I'll say this. WVU might be the most interesting non-con Mizzou has had since we've joined the SEC. You could make a case for either team.
You've got a solid QB in Skyler Howard and a quick-game offense that can neutralize a pass rush. WVU is completely feast-or-famine with the defensive scheme, a lot like Houston. Their blitz packages can confuse a pretty green offensive line.
On the other hand, Mizzou has one of the deeper defensive lines in the SEC, led by two defensive masterminds. Cross has the Gary Patterson influences, and Odom is another guy who likes to blitz wisely and divorce the front from the coverage call, creating simpler defenses. It'll be interesting to see how Yodney Cajuste can handle Harris' spin move. Shipp has changed Mizzou from being an attacking line to a read-and-react DL. Will we still see the same production? Can our OL back up their praise they've received during summer camp and move WVU's down three?
I'm psyched.
Agreed. I love opening with games like this. Hate waiting all year for football season and then having to wait through 2 or 3 weeks of cupcakes. We'll find out a lot about both of our teams after week 1.
I'm interested to watch your D line against our O-line. Basically every preseason mag I've seen has each unit in the top 10 or top 5 in the country. We're down 1 starter on the OL, but it shouldn't hurt us too bad. We have depth on that unit.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 6:59 pm to WVUFanInTN423
MU's adjusted defensive efficiency was 28th. The efficiencies are calculated vs FBS opponents only and clock kills and EOG garbage drives are filtered out. They were on the field an average of 33 minutes a game and were still 28th in efficiency and 5th in points allowed vs FBS squads.
With the O/U at 50ish, Vegas is giving money away IMO.
With the O/U at 50ish, Vegas is giving money away IMO.
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 7:00 pm
Posted on 8/29/16 at 7:08 pm to WVUFanInTN423
No, Vegas sets lines where they think they will get as close to even action on both sides as they can. If they were picking winners and point totals then money coming in on either side wouldn't effect it at all. They move the lines if money is coming in too heavy on one side. I think this line started at 13.5 and a little too much money was coming in on Mizzou and that's why it moved down. Their perfect scenario is even money on each side and they take the juice. They win, no matter who wins.
You can sometimes see pretty large movements late if the sharps come in heavy on a particular team.
You can sometimes see pretty large movements late if the sharps come in heavy on a particular team.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 7:12 pm to WVUFanInTN423
quote:
The biggest difference is the no huddle tempo that Big 12 offenses play at. When you're running 30 more plays per game than teams in other conferences there are gonna be more points scored.
During conference play:
TTU ran the most plays per game at 87
MissState ran the most in the SEC at 76 plays per game
OKlite was middle of the pack at 77 plays per game.
aTm was #7 in the SEC at 71 plays per game
Texas was last at 67 plays per game
MU was last in the SEC at 60.
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 7:13 pm
Posted on 8/29/16 at 7:15 pm to navynuke
His exact numbers are a bit off, but he makes a solid point.
The Big 12 and SEC just have an entirely different style of play.
The Big 12 and SEC just have an entirely different style of play.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 7:42 pm to JesusQuintana
The Big 12 mean plays per game was 77 at 5.56 yds per play.
The SEC's was 69 plays per game at 5.37 yds per play.
46 more yds per game and 34.91 PPG mean scoring average.
The SEC mean scoring average is 23.5 PPG.
The SEC had 19 defensive players drafted alone. The B12 had 26 total. The depth of talent on defense matters more than "style".
The SEC's was 69 plays per game at 5.37 yds per play.
46 more yds per game and 34.91 PPG mean scoring average.
The SEC mean scoring average is 23.5 PPG.
The SEC had 19 defensive players drafted alone. The B12 had 26 total. The depth of talent on defense matters more than "style".
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 8:04 pm
Posted on 8/29/16 at 7:46 pm to navynuke
quote:
During conference play:
TTU ran the most plays per game at 87
MissState ran the most in the SEC at 76 plays per game
OKlite was middle of the pack at 77 plays per game.
aTm was #7 in the SEC at 71 plays per game
Texas was last at 67 plays per game
MU was last in the SEC at 60.
Ok, maybe 30 was an exaggeration. lol So teams like TTU, Baylor, Oklahoma, WVU, Iowa State and TCU run around 85 plays per game.. give or take. That's 20-25 more plays per game than teams like UGA, Mizzou, South Carolina, LSU, Florida, etc.
There are 7 teams in the Big 12 in the top 30 when it comes to offensive plays per game. 5 in the top 10.. including WVU.
There are 2 SEC teams in the top 30 in that category.
More plays automatically will result more yards and more points.
Different styles of football
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 7:55 pm
Posted on 8/29/16 at 10:43 pm to navynuke
quote:
The Big 12 mean plays per game was 77 at 5.56 yds per play.
The SEC's was 69 plays per game at 5.37 yds per play.
46 more yds per game and 34.91 PPG mean scoring average.
The SEC mean scoring average is 23.5 PPG.
The SEC had 19 defensive players drafted alone. The B12 had 26 total. The depth of talent on defense matters more than "style".
The Big 12 only has 10 teams so we're always going to have fewer players drafted. It was a down year for Oklahoma and Texas in the draft.
WVU had 5 players drafted... 4 of them on defense, including a 1st rounder. The most from any SEC team was 7... Bama.
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 10:48 pm
Posted on 8/29/16 at 11:14 pm to WVUFanInTN423
It wasn't all that long ago that we were in the Little Texas. We have an idea of what kind of defense they do and don't play.
Just took a quick glance at your schedule last year. It looks like y'all averaged about 25 ppg against anyone with a pulse and about 40 ppg against anyone else. Would 25 against Mizzou shock me? Not at all. But I would have put Mizzou's defense last year up against anyone in the Little Texas.
You have to understand how God awful our offense was last year. An entire game of 3 and outs can wear a defense out. Frankly, I'm shocked teams didn't score more against us. I imagine we averaged giving up about one TD per game when the other team starts in their own end of the field. Goes without saying...winning the turnover battle will be huge.
Like you said, hopefully it's a competitive and injury free game.
Just took a quick glance at your schedule last year. It looks like y'all averaged about 25 ppg against anyone with a pulse and about 40 ppg against anyone else. Would 25 against Mizzou shock me? Not at all. But I would have put Mizzou's defense last year up against anyone in the Little Texas.
You have to understand how God awful our offense was last year. An entire game of 3 and outs can wear a defense out. Frankly, I'm shocked teams didn't score more against us. I imagine we averaged giving up about one TD per game when the other team starts in their own end of the field. Goes without saying...winning the turnover battle will be huge.
Like you said, hopefully it's a competitive and injury free game.
Posted on 8/29/16 at 11:15 pm to reedus23
Oh, and NFL.com is to be believed, you only have 4 less teams but had half the number of players drafted. No comparison if you're talking which conference puts more players into the NFL.
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