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What do you expect the Gators 2023 record to be post Spring game...?
Posted on 4/17/23 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 4/17/23 at 4:35 pm
Thu, Aug 31 L - I think even if that QB is out they find a way to win this game at home.
@ Utah
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Sat, Sep 9 W
vs McNeese
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Sat, Sep 16 L - We have more talent overall but their offensive system likely overcomes that even on the road.
vs Tennessee
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Sat, Sep 23 W
vs Charlotte
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Sat, Sep 30 L - I think their new QB and being at home will get them the win.
@ Kentucky
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Sat, Oct 7 W - We have much better talent and the game is at home.
vs Vanderbilt
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Sat, Oct 14 W - I think we have enough of a talent advantage to beat them on the road.
@ South Carolina
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Sat, Oct 28 L- And it might be ugly again. I don't see our QBs doing much against their defense.
vs Georgia
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Sat, Nov 4 W - But very close. I think the home field pulls it out though that QB can be dangerous at times.
vs Arkansas
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Sat, Nov 11 L - They have a slight talent advantage and a better QB.
@ LSU
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Sat, Nov 18 W - I think we have enough of a talent advantage to beat them on the road.
@ Missouri
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Sat, Nov 25 L - I think we keep it pretty close at home but they have a similar talent level and a better QB.
vs Florida State
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I see a 6-6 record looking at this schedule despite thinking the defense will be improved quite a bit. Don't know anything about Utah's backup QB but in the other 5 losses I see I think our opponent will have the best QB in the game. If I was to guess where the record is highly likely to fall it would be from 5-7 to 7-5. I was thinking 8-4 at the high end before but not now.
@ Utah
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Sat, Sep 9 W
vs McNeese
-------------
Sat, Sep 16 L - We have more talent overall but their offensive system likely overcomes that even on the road.
vs Tennessee
----------------
Sat, Sep 23 W
vs Charlotte
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Sat, Sep 30 L - I think their new QB and being at home will get them the win.
@ Kentucky
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Sat, Oct 7 W - We have much better talent and the game is at home.
vs Vanderbilt
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Sat, Oct 14 W - I think we have enough of a talent advantage to beat them on the road.
@ South Carolina
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Sat, Oct 28 L- And it might be ugly again. I don't see our QBs doing much against their defense.
vs Georgia
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Sat, Nov 4 W - But very close. I think the home field pulls it out though that QB can be dangerous at times.
vs Arkansas
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Sat, Nov 11 L - They have a slight talent advantage and a better QB.
@ LSU
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Sat, Nov 18 W - I think we have enough of a talent advantage to beat them on the road.
@ Missouri
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Sat, Nov 25 L - I think we keep it pretty close at home but they have a similar talent level and a better QB.
vs Florida State
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I see a 6-6 record looking at this schedule despite thinking the defense will be improved quite a bit. Don't know anything about Utah's backup QB but in the other 5 losses I see I think our opponent will have the best QB in the game. If I was to guess where the record is highly likely to fall it would be from 5-7 to 7-5. I was thinking 8-4 at the high end before but not now.
6
Posted on 4/17/23 at 6:23 pm to Gator Fever
Utah: L
McNesse: w
Tenn: close loss
Charlotte: w
UK: W
Vandy: W
SC: W
UGA: L
Ark: close L
LSU: L
MO: W
FSU: close loss
6-6 but got some coin flip games. 8-4 best case
McNesse: w
Tenn: close loss
Charlotte: w
UK: W
Vandy: W
SC: W
UGA: L
Ark: close L
LSU: L
MO: W
FSU: close loss
6-6 but got some coin flip games. 8-4 best case
This post was edited on 4/17/23 at 6:24 pm
Posted on 4/17/23 at 7:22 pm to Gator Fever
I honestly don't know what to expect from this program any more.
I'd like to think that Napier will figure it out, but there's been a steep learning curve.
I do think that if he does make it, he'll be really successful.
I'd like to think that Napier will figure it out, but there's been a steep learning curve.
I do think that if he does make it, he'll be really successful.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 7:51 am to SpartyGator
quote:
Utah: W
McNesse: w
Tenn: close W
Charlotte: w
UK: W
Vandy: W
SC: W
UGA: W
Ark: close W
LSU: W
MO: W
FSU: close W
Go Gators!
Posted on 4/18/23 at 7:51 am to UFMatt
I'm backkkkkkkkkkk!
Posted on 4/18/23 at 3:26 pm to Partha
Just thinking even if our running game holds up some and we can get 150-160 yards a game in our SEC games + Utah from the RBs without having hardly any QB rushing yards Mertz would have to pass for roughly 250 yards a game to give us a 400+ yard game to be competitive without a really dominant defense. I don't think Mertz has had too many games like that except for maybe his first couple of starts. I think he has been like a 200 yards a game QB in most starts.
Posted on 4/18/23 at 5:23 pm to Gator Fever
Not sure about the Utah game. If Rising plays I think it's a definite L. If he doesn't play I say a coin flip. Because the Altitude is going to be rough on Florida's players just like the humidity was for them last year
Posted on 4/18/23 at 5:52 pm to AlbinoGator
quote:
Altitude is going to be rough on Florida's players just like the humidity was for them last year
I think it'll have more of an impact than humidity.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 7:44 am to Gator Fever
I'm going to say 5-7. My only deviation from yours is that I think we lose one of sc or arky. I would love to be wrong.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 5:08 pm to Jorts R Us
We’re beating Utah.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 5:14 pm to dbuchanon
I lmao at ppl letting a spring game determine their season outlook
One starting OL played, limited playbook
I’d honestly hope our new pressure defense could take advantage.
I said it last yr after USF that we were in trouble. The fact that our DL didn’t flex its muscle vs an opponent like that was concerning, same thing here. If we had put up 50 on em I’d be more concerned tbh
Your starting DL can’t get past your backup OL?? Long season ahead
One starting OL played, limited playbook
I’d honestly hope our new pressure defense could take advantage.
I said it last yr after USF that we were in trouble. The fact that our DL didn’t flex its muscle vs an opponent like that was concerning, same thing here. If we had put up 50 on em I’d be more concerned tbh
Your starting DL can’t get past your backup OL?? Long season ahead
Posted on 4/19/23 at 5:27 pm to Gator Fever
quote:
I don't think Mertz has had too many games like that except for maybe his first couple of starts. I think he has been like a 200 yards a game QB in most starts.
Took one game with UF level WRs to have 244yards with an 8.4 avg.
if we had Wisc starting WRs last yr you’d commit ritual suicide
Their 2021 leading WR went undrafted.
This post was edited on 4/19/23 at 5:34 pm
Posted on 4/20/23 at 12:04 pm to dbuchanon
The problem is until these true freshman WRs mature a little we don't have a good SEC WR room.
I decided to look at Mertz (who I think is the better option than Miller) and Richardson in 2022 dropping the 3 joke games - Eastern Washington for us and Illinois State and New Mexico State for them to see how the 2 produced against competition that at least had a pulse.
Mertz only had a 54.1% completion rate in those games which was only 1.1 % better than Richardson's 53% and both of them only had 4 games where they threw over 200 yards.
Richardson averaged 210 yards passing in those games while Mertz only averaged 167 yards passing in those games.
They had similar TD to interception ratios in those games - 15 TD/8 Int. for Richardson and 15 TD/9 Int. for Mertz.
The big kicker though is when you adjust for Richardson's rushing yards which gives him a total of 265 yards a game in those games while Mertz gains nothing from rushing yards in those games. So there is almost a 100 yard per game difference in production.
I think it may be wishful thinking that we can have a 425+ yard a game offense with Mertz back there based on his history (even with a good running game giving you 150 -160 yards a game average against decent opponents). That would take Mertz going from 167 yards passing in those games in 2022 to a 260+ yards average a game in 2023.
Anyone thinking we are going to really up the game with the RBs in SEC play with Richardson's departure is likely to be disappointed also. Only one SEC team gained 200+ rushing yards a game without the QB included (Ole Miss) and only 2 teams in the SEC even gained 180+ rushing yards a game without the QB included (Ole Miss and Georgia). I think GA was the only SEC team that didn't have a lot of QB rushing yards to get more than around 160 yards a game from the RBs either. All the other top rushing SEC teams were getting a lot of QB rushing yards.
I decided to look at Mertz (who I think is the better option than Miller) and Richardson in 2022 dropping the 3 joke games - Eastern Washington for us and Illinois State and New Mexico State for them to see how the 2 produced against competition that at least had a pulse.
Mertz only had a 54.1% completion rate in those games which was only 1.1 % better than Richardson's 53% and both of them only had 4 games where they threw over 200 yards.
Richardson averaged 210 yards passing in those games while Mertz only averaged 167 yards passing in those games.
They had similar TD to interception ratios in those games - 15 TD/8 Int. for Richardson and 15 TD/9 Int. for Mertz.
The big kicker though is when you adjust for Richardson's rushing yards which gives him a total of 265 yards a game in those games while Mertz gains nothing from rushing yards in those games. So there is almost a 100 yard per game difference in production.
I think it may be wishful thinking that we can have a 425+ yard a game offense with Mertz back there based on his history (even with a good running game giving you 150 -160 yards a game average against decent opponents). That would take Mertz going from 167 yards passing in those games in 2022 to a 260+ yards average a game in 2023.
Anyone thinking we are going to really up the game with the RBs in SEC play with Richardson's departure is likely to be disappointed also. Only one SEC team gained 200+ rushing yards a game without the QB included (Ole Miss) and only 2 teams in the SEC even gained 180+ rushing yards a game without the QB included (Ole Miss and Georgia). I think GA was the only SEC team that didn't have a lot of QB rushing yards to get more than around 160 yards a game from the RBs either. All the other top rushing SEC teams were getting a lot of QB rushing yards.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 10:52 pm to Gator Fever
I take it you don’t know who Mertz OC was last season? Bobby Engram, a former WR who’s never called an offense before was their QB Coach / OC
Their OC before that now coaches OL for another team
Pair that with the lack of playmakers and it’s a no win deal for any QB and probably why the HC is now unemployed
We’ll see how it goes. I am optimistic
Their OC before that now coaches OL for another team
Pair that with the lack of playmakers and it’s a no win deal for any QB and probably why the HC is now unemployed
We’ll see how it goes. I am optimistic
This post was edited on 4/20/23 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 4/21/23 at 8:43 am to dbuchanon
I am not totally writing off the season because I think the defense takes a step forward and that we upgraded at DC but I think the jump is more likely to be a #100 to #50 defense like jump where its improved but not enough to win many games for you. Unlike 2018 where the defense overcame Frank's shaky QB play many games.
On offense I expect a little step back. In our non-easy opponent games I think we get about 160 or so yards from the RBs and maybe around 220 from Mertz. Its tough to win in the SEC averaging those numbers though.
On offense I expect a little step back. In our non-easy opponent games I think we get about 160 or so yards from the RBs and maybe around 220 from Mertz. Its tough to win in the SEC averaging those numbers though.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 11:16 pm to Gator Fever
Thu, Aug 31 L - This game could be ugly. Not sure our players are ready for playing this game at altitude in that stadium. I live in Phoenix, and there are PLENTY of Utah alum here that are very mad about the game last year.
@ Utah
---------------
Sat, Sep 9 W
vs McNeese
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Sat, Sep 16 W - Just a gut feeling here. Tennessee's first true SEC road test with a new QB.
vs Tennessee
----------------
Sat, Sep 23 W
vs Charlotte
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Sat, Sep 30 W - Payback from last year. I think UK takes a major step back.
@ Kentucky
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Sat, Oct 7 W - Self-explanatory. If Napier loses this one...
vs Vanderbilt
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Sat, Oct 14 L - This is a very bad spot to be in. South Carolina is coming off a 2-week bye and they'll very much remember what happened in the Swamp last year.
@ South Carolina
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Sat, Oct 28 L - Will be very ugly. Not much more to say. Georgia is probably going undefeated again.
vs Georgia
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Sat, Nov 4 W - Ugly win after the Georgia game. Got the feeling the team is gonna be very beat up after this game.
vs Arkansas
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Sat, Nov 11 L - UF will fight hard, but lose this.
@ LSU
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Sat, Nov 18 L - UF never plays well at Missouri in November.
@ Missouri
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Sat, Nov 25 W - UF upsets a 1-loss FSU team to end the year.
vs Florida State
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7-5.
Pretty similar season as last year, with an opening loss, but end the season on a high note by upsetting FSU.
@ Utah
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Sat, Sep 9 W
vs McNeese
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Sat, Sep 16 W - Just a gut feeling here. Tennessee's first true SEC road test with a new QB.
vs Tennessee
----------------
Sat, Sep 23 W
vs Charlotte
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Sat, Sep 30 W - Payback from last year. I think UK takes a major step back.
@ Kentucky
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Sat, Oct 7 W - Self-explanatory. If Napier loses this one...
vs Vanderbilt
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Sat, Oct 14 L - This is a very bad spot to be in. South Carolina is coming off a 2-week bye and they'll very much remember what happened in the Swamp last year.
@ South Carolina
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Sat, Oct 28 L - Will be very ugly. Not much more to say. Georgia is probably going undefeated again.
vs Georgia
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Sat, Nov 4 W - Ugly win after the Georgia game. Got the feeling the team is gonna be very beat up after this game.
vs Arkansas
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Sat, Nov 11 L - UF will fight hard, but lose this.
@ LSU
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Sat, Nov 18 L - UF never plays well at Missouri in November.
@ Missouri
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Sat, Nov 25 W - UF upsets a 1-loss FSU team to end the year.
vs Florida State
---------------------
7-5.
Pretty similar season as last year, with an opening loss, but end the season on a high note by upsetting FSU.
Posted on 5/15/23 at 8:29 am to boXerrumble
Didn't pick it but I think if we do have an upset this season it will be Tennessee if our defense really shows up at home. I think FSU with the players that stayed instead of going to the NFL and those portal pickups will be pretty hard to beat for us this season.
Posted on 5/15/23 at 9:25 pm to SpartyGator
5-7. Offense is going to be painful to watch this season.
@Utah: L
McNesse: W
Tenn: L
Charlotte: W
@UK: L
Vandy: W
@SC: L
UGA: L
Ark: W
@LSU: L
@MO: W
FSU: L
@Utah: L
McNesse: W
Tenn: L
Charlotte: W
@UK: L
Vandy: W
@SC: L
UGA: L
Ark: W
@LSU: L
@MO: W
FSU: L
Posted on 5/16/23 at 7:34 am to gatorsimz
2 tough games to win, provided the offense is funtional are
UG and LSU
Utah is next toughest due to location.
The rest are all winnable.
or we could go 5-7.
UG and LSU
Utah is next toughest due to location.
The rest are all winnable.
or we could go 5-7.
Posted on 5/16/23 at 8:24 am to UFMatt
6 wins at best. the incoming freshmen won't be that good starting off due to questionable QB play. i'd like to see a season 1/Joe Burrow at LSU type of season, but like everyone else, i have my doubts about Mertz.
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