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Clemson vs. Alabama this year vs. last year
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:09 pm
Offense (stats bolded are better this year than last):
Alabama 2015:
Points per game- 35.1
Rushing- 199.93 ypg, 4.67 ypa
Passing- 227.1 ypg, 7.6 ypa
Total Offense- 427.1 ypg, 5.89 yards/play
Alabama 2016:
Points per game- 39.4
Rushing- 246.71 ypg, 5.71 ypa
Passing- 214.2 ypg, 7.8 ypa
Total Offense- 460.9 ypg, 6.52 yards/play
Clemson 2015:
Points per game- 38.5
Rushing- 223 ypg, 4.93 ypa
Passing- 291.5 ypg, 8.3 ypa
Total- 514.5 ypg, 6.39 yards/play
Clemson 2016:
Points per game- 39.5
Rushing- 175.37 ypg, 4.47 ypa
Passing- 327.8 ypg, 8.0 ypa
Total- 503.1 ypg, 6.28 yards/play
Defense (stats bolded are better this year than last):
Alabama 2015:
Points per game- 15.1
Rushing- 75.73 ypg, 2.43 ypa
Passing- 200.6 ypg, 6.1 ypa
Total- 276.3 ypg, 4.3 yards/play
Alabama 2016:
Points per game- 11.4
Rushing- 62 ypg, 1.98 ypa
Passing- 182 ypg, 5.7 ypa
Total- 244 ypa, 3.86 yards/play
Clemson 2015:
Points per game- 21.7
Rushing- 125.27 ypg, 3.54 ypa
Passing- 187.7 ypg, 6.4 ypa
Total- 313 ypg, 4.85 yards/play
Clemson 2016:
Points per game- 17.1
Rushing- 123.07 ypg, 3.51 ypa
Passing- 183.8 ypg, 5.7 ypa
Total- 306.9 ypg, 4.56 yards/play
Phew, so what does that leave us with. Clemson's defense has improved since last year, although only slightly. 7 less yards per game, 0.3 less yards/play. They've improved 4 points per game as well. So overall pretty solid improvement.
Alabama's defense has improved across the board as well. Improved 30 yards per game and .5 yards per play.
Alabama's offense however has gotten much more improvement this year vs. last year, especially when compared to Clemson, who has taken a nosedive running the football. Clemson did improve in yards/game passing but the yards/attempt passing is actually lower than it was last year.
Anyways, here's a bunch of data, enjoy.
Alabama 2015:
Points per game- 35.1
Rushing- 199.93 ypg, 4.67 ypa
Passing- 227.1 ypg, 7.6 ypa
Total Offense- 427.1 ypg, 5.89 yards/play
Alabama 2016:
Points per game- 39.4
Rushing- 246.71 ypg, 5.71 ypa
Passing- 214.2 ypg, 7.8 ypa
Total Offense- 460.9 ypg, 6.52 yards/play
Clemson 2015:
Points per game- 38.5
Rushing- 223 ypg, 4.93 ypa
Passing- 291.5 ypg, 8.3 ypa
Total- 514.5 ypg, 6.39 yards/play
Clemson 2016:
Points per game- 39.5
Rushing- 175.37 ypg, 4.47 ypa
Passing- 327.8 ypg, 8.0 ypa
Total- 503.1 ypg, 6.28 yards/play
Defense (stats bolded are better this year than last):
Alabama 2015:
Points per game- 15.1
Rushing- 75.73 ypg, 2.43 ypa
Passing- 200.6 ypg, 6.1 ypa
Total- 276.3 ypg, 4.3 yards/play
Alabama 2016:
Points per game- 11.4
Rushing- 62 ypg, 1.98 ypa
Passing- 182 ypg, 5.7 ypa
Total- 244 ypa, 3.86 yards/play
Clemson 2015:
Points per game- 21.7
Rushing- 125.27 ypg, 3.54 ypa
Passing- 187.7 ypg, 6.4 ypa
Total- 313 ypg, 4.85 yards/play
Clemson 2016:
Points per game- 17.1
Rushing- 123.07 ypg, 3.51 ypa
Passing- 183.8 ypg, 5.7 ypa
Total- 306.9 ypg, 4.56 yards/play
Phew, so what does that leave us with. Clemson's defense has improved since last year, although only slightly. 7 less yards per game, 0.3 less yards/play. They've improved 4 points per game as well. So overall pretty solid improvement.
Alabama's defense has improved across the board as well. Improved 30 yards per game and .5 yards per play.
Alabama's offense however has gotten much more improvement this year vs. last year, especially when compared to Clemson, who has taken a nosedive running the football. Clemson did improve in yards/game passing but the yards/attempt passing is actually lower than it was last year.
Anyways, here's a bunch of data, enjoy.
This post was edited on 1/6/17 at 5:17 pm
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:11 pm to Kcoyote
The best teams in the country. Gonna be a bloodbath
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:15 pm to Dubosed
quote:
The best teams in the country. Gonna be a bloodbath
I think Clemson has been clearly the #2 best overall program the past 5 years behind Alabama.
I know OSU and FSU won titles, but Clemson has the consistency edge.
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:20 pm to Kcoyote
In your opinion does the fact that the SEC wasn't very good this year effect Alabama's improvement in stats? Imagine if you guys played the Gamecocks.
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:32 pm to tigeroarz1
quote:
In your opinion does the fact that the SEC wasn't very good this year effect Alabama's improvement in stats? Imagine if you guys played the Gamecocks.
Nope. As a whole the conference is performing slightly better offensively than it did last year. Last year there were 7 teams above 400 yards per game, this year there are 10.
And defensively teams like LSU, Florida and Auburn all improved.
This post was edited on 1/6/17 at 5:35 pm
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:34 pm to tigeroarz1
quote:
In your opinion does the fact that the SEC wasn't very good this year effect Alabama's improvement in stats?
No, because we basically played all the best teams and didn't play the worst ones (South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt). We also didn't play basically the 3 worst offenses (Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt). Add in Western Kentucky and Southern California and our schedule was pretty solid.
And, our opponent adjusted stats (S&P+, FPI, etc) are all better too.
This post was edited on 1/6/17 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:39 pm to Triple Daves
All signs keep pointing to a Bama win.
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:42 pm to Kcoyote
Makes sense. Bama seems better than they were last year and Clemson seems worse. Bama by 14-17
Posted on 1/6/17 at 5:44 pm to LB84
quote:
Makes sense. Bama seems better than they were last year and Clemson seems worse. Bama by 14-17
The biggest issue, is that last year I think Clemson got SOME success running the ball, but this year, with how their running game has taken an extreme nosedive, I don't believe they'll have the balance needed to beat Alabama.
Posted on 1/6/17 at 6:04 pm to Kcoyote
More to that point, here's how Clemson has done against top 30 rush defenses:
#8 North Carolina State- 39 carries, 117 yards, 3.0 ypc, 7 point win
#16 Pittsburgh- 25 carries, 50 yards, 2.0 ypa, 1 point loss
#17 Troy- 32 carries, 122 yards, 3.8 ypc, 6 point win
#22 FSU- 38 carries, 133 yards, 3.5 ypc, 3 point win
#27 Auburn- 44 carries, 151 yards, 3.4 ypc, 6 point win
Now they did alright against two others:
#20 Ohio State - 48 carries, 205 yards, 4.3 ypc, 31 point win
#12 Louisville- 31 carries, 201 yards, 6.5 ypc, 6 point win
But in almost every game they've faced a top 30 rushing defense (with the exception of Ohio State), they have struggled to move the ball AND the game has been extremely close.
#8 North Carolina State- 39 carries, 117 yards, 3.0 ypc, 7 point win
#16 Pittsburgh- 25 carries, 50 yards, 2.0 ypa, 1 point loss
#17 Troy- 32 carries, 122 yards, 3.8 ypc, 6 point win
#22 FSU- 38 carries, 133 yards, 3.5 ypc, 3 point win
#27 Auburn- 44 carries, 151 yards, 3.4 ypc, 6 point win
Now they did alright against two others:
#20 Ohio State - 48 carries, 205 yards, 4.3 ypc, 31 point win
#12 Louisville- 31 carries, 201 yards, 6.5 ypc, 6 point win
But in almost every game they've faced a top 30 rushing defense (with the exception of Ohio State), they have struggled to move the ball AND the game has been extremely close.
This post was edited on 1/6/17 at 6:06 pm
Posted on 1/6/17 at 6:14 pm to Kcoyote
Just means they will be throwing the hell out of the ball and that style offense is not Bamas best to defend against.
I don't see either team running away with this game but stranger things have happened.
I don't see either team running away with this game but stranger things have happened.
Posted on 1/6/17 at 6:18 pm to tigeroarz1
We didn't win 7 games by one score or less. Regardless of teams played, that's a huge factor.
Posted on 1/6/17 at 6:19 pm to Kcoyote
quote:I'd bet my life that the last 7 or so games from last season(offense) absolutely shite on this year's offense.
Alabama's offense however has gotten much more improvement this year vs. last year
Posted on 1/6/17 at 6:31 pm to AshLSU
quote:
Just means they will be throwing the hell out of the ball and that style offense is not Bamas best to defend against.
That's true, and if Dabo is smart that's what he'll do. Abandon the run early, chuck it up. Problem with that is, it also leads to a frickton of turnovers, and all it takes is one interception for a TD and the game is over. People seem to think since Ole Miss kept it close with an onside kick and two last minute TDs that any team can run the same type of offense and succeed. They also forget that Alabama scored three non offensive touchdowns that game, in part because Ole Miss abandoned ball control early.
Posted on 1/6/17 at 6:48 pm to Kcoyote
quote:Gallman (RB) was knocked out on his second carry with a concussion.
#8 North Carolina State- 39 carries, 117 yards, 3.0 ypc, 7 point win
Clemson was extremely conservative with Watson running the ball until after the Pitt loss.
This post was edited on 1/6/17 at 6:52 pm
Posted on 1/6/17 at 6:55 pm to Kcoyote
Exactly. I've said it 100 times this season.
Go ahead and chunk the ball around the yard. You'll get yours. And Alabama will get theirs...and break the hell out of you.
Go ahead and chunk the ball around the yard. You'll get yours. And Alabama will get theirs...and break the hell out of you.
Posted on 1/6/17 at 7:12 pm to Kcoyote
No way, we were told there was no way that Bama's defense would even be close to last year's. Especially rush defense.
Wait, that was also said about the offense.
Hmmm, the Bama haters were wrong again. Wait til next year. Bama gonna lose 4 games.
Wait, that was also said about the offense.
Hmmm, the Bama haters were wrong again. Wait til next year. Bama gonna lose 4 games.
Posted on 1/6/17 at 7:14 pm to Kcoyote
As I mentioned in my breakdown a few days ago, Bama will wear down Clemson. Stats below give good glimpse as to why.
Bama is better at moving the chains when there are at least 5 yards for a 1st down. (see opportunity rate)
When it's 3rd and short or 4th and short, Bama is able to move the chains much more often than Clemson. (see power success rate)
Despite being predicated on the run, with teams loading the box to stop the run, Bama and Clemson get stuffed at almost the same rate.
Despite the apparent differences in talent and experience between Watson and Hurts, the unadjusted sack rates would yield roughly 1 sack difference in the game between the two, if that, since Clemson will throw more often than Bama. This is because Bama has done a very good job coaching Hurts this year.
All of Boulware's homo butt obsession is not going to stop Bo or the other Bama RBs. Bama will reset the LOS throughout the game and control TOP.
OLine Stats
Stats are: Raw / Rank
Run-blocking stats
Adjusted Line Yards: One of only two opponent-adjusted numbers on the page, this aligns with the ALY figure FO tracks for the NFL and is presented on a scale in which 100.0 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.
Bama 115 / 13
Clemson 125 / 4
Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry: The raw, unadjusted per-carry line yardage for a team on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer).
Bama 3.21 / 31
Clemson 3.10 / 50
Passing Downs Line Yards per Carry: The same unadjusted averages for rushing on passing downs.
Bama 3.40 / 53
Clemson 3.67 / 25
Opportunity Rate: The percentage of carries (when five yards are available) that gain at least five yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak.
Bama 45.7% / 6
Clemson 41.0% / 50
Power Success Rate: This is the same as on the pro side -- percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.
Bama 75% / 20
Clemson 62.9% / 95
Stuff Rate: Same as STUFFED on the pro side -- percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.
Bama 19.9% / 88
Clemson 17.6% / 47
Pass-blocking stats
Adjusted Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted version of a team's sack rate -- sacks divided by (sacks plus passes), presented on a scale in which 100 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.
Bama 104 / 54
Clemson 239.8 / 4
Standard Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for standard downs pass attempts.
Bama 6.9% / 105
Clemson 3.1% / 26
Passing Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for passing downs pass attempts.
Bama 5.5% / 29
Clemson 2.3% / 2
ETA: clarification 'despite Bama's offense being predicated on the run'
Bama is better at moving the chains when there are at least 5 yards for a 1st down. (see opportunity rate)
When it's 3rd and short or 4th and short, Bama is able to move the chains much more often than Clemson. (see power success rate)
Despite being predicated on the run, with teams loading the box to stop the run, Bama and Clemson get stuffed at almost the same rate.
Despite the apparent differences in talent and experience between Watson and Hurts, the unadjusted sack rates would yield roughly 1 sack difference in the game between the two, if that, since Clemson will throw more often than Bama. This is because Bama has done a very good job coaching Hurts this year.
All of Boulware's homo butt obsession is not going to stop Bo or the other Bama RBs. Bama will reset the LOS throughout the game and control TOP.
OLine Stats
Stats are: Raw / Rank
Run-blocking stats
Adjusted Line Yards: One of only two opponent-adjusted numbers on the page, this aligns with the ALY figure FO tracks for the NFL and is presented on a scale in which 100.0 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.
Bama 115 / 13
Clemson 125 / 4
Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry: The raw, unadjusted per-carry line yardage for a team on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer).
Bama 3.21 / 31
Clemson 3.10 / 50
Passing Downs Line Yards per Carry: The same unadjusted averages for rushing on passing downs.
Bama 3.40 / 53
Clemson 3.67 / 25
Opportunity Rate: The percentage of carries (when five yards are available) that gain at least five yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak.
Bama 45.7% / 6
Clemson 41.0% / 50
Power Success Rate: This is the same as on the pro side -- percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.
Bama 75% / 20
Clemson 62.9% / 95
Stuff Rate: Same as STUFFED on the pro side -- percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.
Bama 19.9% / 88
Clemson 17.6% / 47
Pass-blocking stats
Adjusted Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted version of a team's sack rate -- sacks divided by (sacks plus passes), presented on a scale in which 100 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.
Bama 104 / 54
Clemson 239.8 / 4
Standard Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for standard downs pass attempts.
Bama 6.9% / 105
Clemson 3.1% / 26
Passing Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for passing downs pass attempts.
Bama 5.5% / 29
Clemson 2.3% / 2
ETA: clarification 'despite Bama's offense being predicated on the run'
This post was edited on 1/6/17 at 7:18 pm
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