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By the Advanced Stats : Bama vs MSU Matchups
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:20 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:20 am
S&P 2015 Stats (Football Outsiders)
When State has the ball
Passing
State #11 vs Bama #1
Running
State #60 vs Bama #1
Standard Downs (1st, 2nd and 7 or less, 3rd/4th and 4 or less)
State #17 vs Bama #1
Passing Downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+)
State #23 vs Bama #4
When Bama has the ball
Passing
Bama #40 vs State #34
Running
Bama #19 vs State #58
Standard Downs
Bama #22 vs State #71
Passing Downs
Bama #47 vs State #7
Miscellaneous
Adjusted Pace of Play
State #108 vs Bama #32
So, pretty clearly, State's best chance on defense is to find a way to get Alabama in passing downs. I think that all boils down to our line performing like they did against Wisconsin/Georgia/LSU in terms of no penalties, limited negative plays, etc. If they perform like they did vs Tennessee and Arkansas then State is going to be able to make this thing really scary. It is a pretty simple analysis for Alabama. When we stay ahead of the chains we are very, very good on offense. When we fall behind the chains we start spinning our wheels.
On the other side, obviously State is going to have to throw it 100 times. It's their best chance.
I thought the pace stats were interesting. State really plays at a snails pace and Alabama actually plays pretty quickly.
When State has the ball
Passing
State #11 vs Bama #1
Running
State #60 vs Bama #1
Standard Downs (1st, 2nd and 7 or less, 3rd/4th and 4 or less)
State #17 vs Bama #1
Passing Downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+)
State #23 vs Bama #4
When Bama has the ball
Passing
Bama #40 vs State #34
Running
Bama #19 vs State #58
Standard Downs
Bama #22 vs State #71
Passing Downs
Bama #47 vs State #7
Miscellaneous
Adjusted Pace of Play
State #108 vs Bama #32
So, pretty clearly, State's best chance on defense is to find a way to get Alabama in passing downs. I think that all boils down to our line performing like they did against Wisconsin/Georgia/LSU in terms of no penalties, limited negative plays, etc. If they perform like they did vs Tennessee and Arkansas then State is going to be able to make this thing really scary. It is a pretty simple analysis for Alabama. When we stay ahead of the chains we are very, very good on offense. When we fall behind the chains we start spinning our wheels.
On the other side, obviously State is going to have to throw it 100 times. It's their best chance.
I thought the pace stats were interesting. State really plays at a snails pace and Alabama actually plays pretty quickly.
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 9:23 am
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Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:25 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
the other side, obviously State is going to have to throw it 100 times. It's their best chance.
State also needs to attack the C-gaps in the run game, probably Dax. They will not be able to run between the tackles, so they need to attack outside the tackles.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:28 am to CaptainBrannigan
quote:
State also needs to attack the C-gaps in the run game, probably Dax. They will not be able to run between the tackles, so they need to attack outside the tackles.
Agree. Like I said, I am sure State's gameplan will be a lot of run/pass option type stuff that gives Dak a hand off option, a quick throw option and an extended down the field option. I also expect 5-10 QB draws. They can't just line up 5 wide with no back in for protection/run threat of Dak will get murdered (and our guys will cover it). Have to give the run/throw option.
That is a lot of decision making to put on Dak's shoulders, but the only way to win is to give him the keys and tell him to make plays in that gameplan.
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 9:30 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:31 am to SummerOfGeorge
Dak is a big, strong runner but I don't see him as overly elusive. He will have to throw much more accurately in this game for State to be in the game.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
Yep. I would gladly take 1-2 yards on every first down.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
Do you believe there's such thing as bend don't break defense? The fact that we haven't given up many touchdowns and we're very good on 3rd &5+ Should tell you something. Maybe not though. Maybe all you can do is determine which number is higher and which one is lower and sink all of your eggs in that basket
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 9:38 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:39 am to MSU5
quote:
Do you believe there's such thing as bend don't break defense? The fact that we haven't given up many touchdowns and we're very good on 3rd &5+ Should tell you something. Maybe not though. Maybe all you can do is determine which number is higher and which one is lower and sink all of your eggs in that basket. Christ, you guys really are all fricking ignorant.
I think it is very clear that State is better when they get teams in passing downs (LSU is very similar). If we get bogged down and start shooting ourselves in the foot (which we have done in the past on occasion) and are forced into passing downs then State is going to force us to punt a bunch. If we do what we did against LSU and get 3-5 yards on first down and stay in front of the chains then I think we will be in pretty good shape.
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 9:40 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:41 am to SummerOfGeorge
i don't see any way bama can win this game.
before the LSU game, bama's best win was a loss to a 3-loss Ole Miss.
before the LSU game, bama's best win was a loss to a 3-loss Ole Miss.
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 9:42 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:42 am to Slippery Slope
quote:
i don't see any way bama can win this game.
Agree - too much grind
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:05 am to Slippery Slope
and your best win was to #40 La Tech
and a loss to a 3 loss TA&M
and a loss to a 3 loss TA&M
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 10:09 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:16 am to elit4ce05
Don't feed the troll!
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:18 am to CaptainBrannigan
quote:
They will not be able to run between the tackles, so they need to attack outside the tackles.
If that's what they NEED to do, then good luck to them.
quote:
Bama has allowed nine 20+ yard runs outside tackles the past 4 seasons
From a source Auburn fans can appreciate
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