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re: Political Melt Thread

Posted on 1/11/21 at 8:22 pm to
Posted by finchmeister08
Member since Mar 2011
35838 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 8:22 pm to
quote:

LuciusSulla


I feel like you’re intelligent enough to tell me exactly why the weird voting issues are why the way that they are and why they might possibly be legit. I’ll listen with an open mind.

I can believe there’s been an influx of new voters for 2020 as compared to 2016. But I really don’t understand how an 800,000 lead in PA can be slowly flipped after a week of counting.

Trump was up 800,000ish votes that Tuesday.

That following Friday/Saturday, Biden is up 50,000ish votes.
Posted by LuciusSulla
Oxford, MS
Member since Nov 2010
2703 posts
Posted on 1/12/21 at 5:11 pm to
This has already been explained ad nauseam to the point that if you still believe there were 10s of thousands of illegal votes, I don't suspect there is anything I can say here to dissuade you from that belief.

The "dumps" have been explained. The linear jumps in the graph have been explained. As I was watching it, I actually found all of that so absolutely expected that I was initially shocked that anyone would have a problem understanding what happened, particularly in states where votes aren't canvased ahead of time. It was even said before the election by people on both sides that the mail in votes would heavily favor Democrats, as mail in votes have for decades now. Political consultants on both sides also know that high voter turnout favors Democrats because that also has for quite some time. Knowing Democrats lose elections with lower turnout has been a campaign strategy consideration for both sides for decades.

Furthermore, the places Trump has been prattling on about - Detroit and Philly in particular - were DOWN for Biden. The surrounding suburban counties were who swung the vote, and Trump has been shedding white, college educated suburbanites for years. They more than made up for Bidens loses in the counties that Trump has been ironically ranting and raving about since the election.

Finally, it's not surprising turnout was high, though UFMatt is correct - 81 million people didn't vote for Biden. Where he is incorrect is assuming that they didn't vote against Trump. The majority of those votes were votes against Trump. Literally anyone could have run on the Democratic side and those people who have voted for him and her because they hate Trump that deeply. This election was a referendum on Trump more than it had anything to do with Biden. Biden's campaign platform was almost 100%, "If elected, I won't be Donald Trump."

It's interesting to me that many of you can recognize how deeply hated Trump was by a lot of this country but then don't seem to think that would motivate those seem people to come out in droves to get rid of him.

His disapproval rating at the time of the election was about 52%, and Biden won by close to 52% in the popular vote. I don't think that's coincidence.

There is fraud in every election. All it takes is one fraudulent vote for it to be true that there is fraud. No one is disagreeing that there wasn't a fraudulent vote here or there, but in an election where 10s of thousands of votes are needed to have changed the outcome, there is simply no evidence of any fraud committed to that extent. Even the senate's great flip-flopist Lindsey Graham had to admit that no one could show him a single vote, much less 10s of thousands, to back up the claims Trump's legal team was making.

So we have an election which went exactly as predicted by people on both sides, including the way the votes came in. And the exact population who everyone guessed would be the great swing - the population Democrats directly targeted by going with Biden in the first place, who is about as much of a progressive socialist as Richard Nixon - ended up being the great swing.

As for Georgia, what was funny to me was that it was ultimately irrelevant. Had it gone for Trump, he'd still have lost. And the only thing interesting about Georgia is that it's the only state where the black vote really did make a difference.

None of which will suffice to sway you, but since you asked, there it is.
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