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re: Arkansas 2020 is Arkansas 2019 with a better turnover margin
Posted on 10/19/20 at 9:52 am to Roger Klarvin
Posted on 10/19/20 at 9:52 am to Roger Klarvin
quote:
The point here is Ole Miss could have still had a MISERABLE game (5ish turnovers, 2-3 failed 4th down conversions) and would still have almost certainly won.
My issue with this logic is that you're argument boils down to "if Ole Miss played better they would have won." Yes you can argue that that many turnovers is anomalous, but it's what happened.
Also Arkansas did not lean on turnovers to earn a victory on the field again Auburn. In fact, Arkansas missed 3 2 point conversion attempts and suffered a horrific blown call. So if we're normalizing for anomalies, Arkansas is still 2-2.
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Posted on 10/19/20 at 10:12 am to Riggle
quote:
My issue with this logic is that you're argument boils down to "if Ole Miss played better they would have won."
No, I’m arguing that if something that only happens in 0.5% of all college football games played (about 1/200 games) hadn’t occurred they would have won. And that stat is skewed because it’s all FBS games, which means it’s usually slack jaw State vs Bama when it occurs. In games between P5 opponents it’s about 1/300.
There are quite a few college football programs who haven’t been involved in a single game with 7 turnovers by one team in the last 30 years. Arkansas could realistically go the rest of your life without playing in another such game. A&M has been involved in (I think?) two such games in the last 30 years and one was a five hour overtime game.
This post was edited on 10/19/20 at 10:14 am
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