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re: Arkansas 2020 is Arkansas 2019 with a better turnover margin
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:01 pm to beaverfever
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:01 pm to beaverfever
quote:
Maybe the real thesis is that 2019 Arkansas was better than people thought. Starkel threw 5 picks in a game they still could have won.
This is true, Arkansas’ estimated 2019 record based on their advanced data was 4.1-7.9. They were at least two wins better than their final record based on all the numbers. They had a couple games last year with crazy skews in turnovers the other way.
I expect them to win around 4 games this year, which given they will all be conference games will indicate a return to the mean on the basis of a couple wins with insane turnover stats the other way. Their estimated W-L will probably be around 3-7 but they’ll win an extra game or two on that basis.
That’s how year to year statistical variation works based on a component of random chance present in the game. So Arkansas is still a bad team with similar numbers across the board this year, but not as bad as last year’s record shows and probably a little worse than what this years record will show.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:04 pm to Roger Klarvin
Is Mond still your starting QB on 10/31? Ok then we have a chance.
Unless he’s finally figured it out which I’m sure you have data to support.
Unless he’s finally figured it out which I’m sure you have data to support.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:04 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
So Arkansas is still a bad team
I wouldn't say that.
At worst, Arkansas will beat Missouri and Tennessee. They have an outside shot at beating LSU. That puts them at 6-4 on the season.
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