re: Arkansas 2020 is Arkansas 2019 with a better turnover margin

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Maybe the real thesis is that 2019 Arkansas was better than people thought. Starkel threw 5 picks in a game they still could have won.

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This is true, Arkansas’ estimated 2019 record based on their advanced data was 4.1-7.9. They were at least two wins better than their final record based on all the numbers. They had a couple games last year with crazy skews in turnovers the other way.

I expect them to win around 4 games this year, which given they will all be conference games will indicate a return to the mean on the basis of a couple wins with insane turnover stats the other way. Their estimated W-L will probably be around 3-7 but they’ll win an extra game or two on that basis.

That’s how year to year statistical variation works based on a component of random chance present in the game. So Arkansas is still a bad team with similar numbers across the board this year, but not as bad as last year’s record shows and probably a little worse than what this years record will show.