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Analysis utilizing advanced mathematics
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:28 am
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:28 am
This short mathematical study will likely be over the head of most of you on this board so some of you should opt out before reading it. It will just confuse you.
Synopsis and Potential Future Impact:
In calendar year 2019 Alabama played in three “highly” critical games. In the first, the NC game against Clemson, the defense gave up 44 points. In the second HC (highly critical) game against LSU, deemed HC because the winner would likely go to the SEC championship and playoffs, the defense gave up 46 points. In the final HC game, Auburn, deemed HC because it was the last opportunity for Alabama to back in to the playoffs and hope to avoid the decimation of the dynasty, the defense gave up 48 points. This in mathematical terms is deemed a trend. Using techniques of extrapolation we can predict that in the next HC game the Alabama defense will likely give up 50 in a losing effort. The question then is what game in 2020 will be deemed HC and will the defense give up 50 in a losing effort? As a thought, Georgia is an early 2020 opponent with a new offense. Could it be the bulldogs?
I await comments from any of my learned mathematical colleagues.
Synopsis and Potential Future Impact:
In calendar year 2019 Alabama played in three “highly” critical games. In the first, the NC game against Clemson, the defense gave up 44 points. In the second HC (highly critical) game against LSU, deemed HC because the winner would likely go to the SEC championship and playoffs, the defense gave up 46 points. In the final HC game, Auburn, deemed HC because it was the last opportunity for Alabama to back in to the playoffs and hope to avoid the decimation of the dynasty, the defense gave up 48 points. This in mathematical terms is deemed a trend. Using techniques of extrapolation we can predict that in the next HC game the Alabama defense will likely give up 50 in a losing effort. The question then is what game in 2020 will be deemed HC and will the defense give up 50 in a losing effort? As a thought, Georgia is an early 2020 opponent with a new offense. Could it be the bulldogs?
I await comments from any of my learned mathematical colleagues.
11
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:43 am to Buyugurl
While it is a trend. It's 3 games over one year. I'll need to see that over at least another year before I'd worry if I was a Bama fan. But that may just be me.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:50 am to Buyugurl
You overlooked the mathematical constant though. That being all three of those HCs were against Tigers. My prediction: they give up 50 to Missouri in week 1.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 7:22 am to Buyugurl
Thank you for submitting this scientific study for peer review. I find no error in your analysis.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 7:46 am to Buyugurl
quote:
In the first, the NC game against Clemson, the defense gave up 44 points.
False
quote:
In the final HC game, Auburn, deemed HC because it was the last opportunity for Alabama to back in to the playoffs and hope to avoid the decimation of the dynasty, the defense gave up 48 points
False
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 7:47 am
Posted on 8/21/20 at 7:57 am to Buyugurl
Hello, I am a fellow learned mathematician here to give his two cents:
I compiled the number of points given up by the Alabama defense in every ranked game since the start of the 2009 season and applied a moving average trendline with a period of two. Moving average allows us to analyze the performance of the Alabama defense at a particular point in time and then compare it to other points in time.
Analysis shows that 2019 was the worst year for Alabama's defense in the Saban era. Their moving average skyrocketed from 0 to nearly 50 and never dropped below 30. This is evidence of why Alabama wasn't able to win big games this past year despite having historic offensive production for most of the year.
We see that deep valleys follow almost every high peak in this data set, which seems to suggest that Alabama's defense will improve significantly in the next few games. Trendlines are nothing more than guesses though, so who knows what will happen in 2020. If Alabama were to give up 58 points in our game in Oxford this year, I wouldn't be upset.
Good luck this season you corn dog worshipping Tigahs.
I compiled the number of points given up by the Alabama defense in every ranked game since the start of the 2009 season and applied a moving average trendline with a period of two. Moving average allows us to analyze the performance of the Alabama defense at a particular point in time and then compare it to other points in time.
Analysis shows that 2019 was the worst year for Alabama's defense in the Saban era. Their moving average skyrocketed from 0 to nearly 50 and never dropped below 30. This is evidence of why Alabama wasn't able to win big games this past year despite having historic offensive production for most of the year.
We see that deep valleys follow almost every high peak in this data set, which seems to suggest that Alabama's defense will improve significantly in the next few games. Trendlines are nothing more than guesses though, so who knows what will happen in 2020. If Alabama were to give up 58 points in our game in Oxford this year, I wouldn't be upset.
Good luck this season you corn dog worshipping Tigahs.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 8:05 am
Posted on 8/21/20 at 8:01 am to Buyugurl
I have reviewed these figures and come to the same conclusion. May I cite your work in my upcoming paper?
Posted on 8/21/20 at 8:26 am to Buyugurl
Doesn't take a study to understand that when you open up an offense, your D suffers. It is a line a coach has to walk.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 9:28 am to Buyugurl
quote:
utilizing advanced mathematics
Posted on 8/21/20 at 9:40 am to Buyugurl
Auburn had two pick six's 
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:10 am to Buyugurl
Hey I applaud the effort but live sports with moving parts and pieces don't tend to follow mathematical trends. Of course math, like anything, can always be manipulated to fit a point.
Bamas defense will be fine. Last season was the first time since early in the Saban era where injuries and NFL departures, in other words depth, caught up with the Tide defense. I expect a return t more normalcy this year. That defense is loaded. Last year was a bit of a outlier but the only trend I see with Bamas defense is the regression of their DB play over the past few years. Loads of talented kids that were drafted but the overall product has been very non Bama like. In this era of passing offense that is not a plus.
Bamas defense will be fine. Last season was the first time since early in the Saban era where injuries and NFL departures, in other words depth, caught up with the Tide defense. I expect a return t more normalcy this year. That defense is loaded. Last year was a bit of a outlier but the only trend I see with Bamas defense is the regression of their DB play over the past few years. Loads of talented kids that were drafted but the overall product has been very non Bama like. In this era of passing offense that is not a plus.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 2:23 pm to Buyugurl
It's funny because my bama friend at work always says 3 data points makes a trend.
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