quote:
I'm sure Saban will be anticipating the first down pass as well. The problem will come when Fromm does not connect. It won't be as easy as throwing against UK or OU. The first pass he misses will give you 2nd and 10. Run the ball next play and it's probably 3rd and 6 or 7.

No doubt... Bama is the toughest game that we will play all season.

Anticipating pass on 1st down won't do you much good in a 50/50 situation. That's the entire point of 50/50. You will be wrong half of the time if you are guessing.

The net effect of passing on 1st down puts Fromm in a position to contribute offensively without putting too much on his shoulders (running on 2nd and 10 will hopefully net a 3rd and 6 or better. We still have the option to pass on 2nd and 10 too. So a throw should have a similar level of success that the first down offered because the defense can't cheat a tendancy).

But those figures included 1st down incompletions and sacks. We still found ways to convert the majority of those series into 1st downs or scores. And our running game improved on 1st down (see the first Auburn game for what a defense can do when they expect you to run on first downs 9 times in a row).