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re: How Would TCU Finish This Year If They Were In The SEC?

Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:05 pm to
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
54792 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

Problem with the SEC is that they are locked into their deal with ESPN/ABC.


If you view that as a problem, not sure what to tell you. Sure they do not own 100% like the PAC or 50% like the B1G but they get top exposure which might be worth a value outside cash. When you get free advertising (worth maybe 1 million to 5 million per game) you have to figure out the added benefits even if it does not show up on the conference check every year.

quote:

OU and UT would lose money if they joined the SEC and now the ACC.


Not sure I believe this, and even if they did it would be negligible compared to the 24 / 7 / 365 exposure they would get via CBS / ESPN / SECN. Sure the SEC could demand more money from CBS from that 3:30 slot but what exposure would be denied if the contract cancelled and say FOX picked it up for the current price or more but coast the conference the loss of exposure.

quote:

The third tier rights you speak of is not media rights unless of course if I am wrong


If you are a Texas guy, look only to your own members. The WVU Pres or AD outlined the three different tiers back when WVU was joining the Big 12. Basically if the conference profits, it is Tier I or Tier II and if the school profits, it is Tier III. The problem is Tier III includes such a hodge podge of things like TV not picked up, radio, signage, and even things like naming rights and computer rights that it has become very hard to separate it by line item like it used to be.

If it helps on the TV side think of the crap game that was always the property of the school and not the conference like the "rent a win" home game. While they now appear to have been "pooled" and moved up to Tier II it seems memory serves that they can be "recaptured" by the schools if the conference does not want them.

You have to remember where all these deals started and who the pioneers were in the first place. North Carolina and Kentucky (later Kansas) got their starts in the radio age and those deals are still in place via vehicles like IMG College. This may explain why IMG College got such a big slice of the LHN (20 cents on the dollar?) and why schools like Ohio State and Kentucky have such valuable side deals in addition to their conference deals.

IMG certainly had their hooks in Texas and probably will as the "scraps" can add value to a group like IMG (who also owns CLC) while the "scraps" are not as profitable to the like of ESPN or FOX. CBS is the classic example with their 3:30 deal. All they want is the game of the week and don't want to make the effort for the lesser money generated after this game. Not to say this money does not add up, just does not give the same RoI so means more work for less money.

quote:

SEC network controls all football games not televised on ESPN/ABC or CBS.


Having the control and exercising it are not the same. look at the ACC and Raycom. Probably the main reason ACC has been so slow on their conference deal as ESPN needed them early on for content but now ESPN can cherry pick football and basketball games and let Raycom do the heavy lifting on the lesser games in those and other sports.

If you follow UNC or UK basketball you can usually tell by the quality which games ABC / CBS / ESPN have exercised control on and which ones they have let go back to the schools. If you watch college baseball spend some time and see who is running the cameras at the game. Granted the LHN allows local staff and still be ESPN at home but on the road in the Big 12 notice the changes in staff between big games and small ones. In the SEC the big weekend series may be ESPN but the weekdays or lesser series may be kids in the schools AV department.

In the past (say last 5 years or so) you could tell by the cameras and scissor lifts at baseball games. You could also tell by looking at the production trucks out front and what names were on their doors. Since 2014 or so I paid less attention as I attend far fewer live games now but you can usually tell in the audio and video quality. Picture and sound at that Auburn @ Clemson game last week was clear and crisp. Not the same for SEC vs FCS or G5 type games.
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
80415 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

1) PAC 12 owns its own network. The payout is not determined by ESPN or FOX


There are six PAC 12 Networks, grouped by state. (Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, Arizona, and Utah) The networks are broadcast and distributed by Fox, and then each region gets their own cut.

If a game is being broadcast on PAC 12 Arizona at the same time as a game on PAC 12 Oregon, for example, here in Washington we get the one for PAC 12 Oregon.

They would have to redo their entire contract with Fox in order to accommodate both you and Oklahoma, either making it one central network or adding PAC 12 Oklahoma and PAC 12 Texas...which Fox Sports SW would have a HUGE problem with. DirecTV already refuses to carry PAC 12 Networks because they don't want to pay for six different networks. What do you think they will do with 8?
Posted by BigRDawg17
Member since Jun 2017
197 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

Big 12 schools that could compete in the SEC west #1 Oklahoma, probably below the Big 3


OU would skullfrick Auburn and LSU...
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
54792 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

They pretty much mortgaged their future on the move.


Not really, they just rebranded, which was not much of a mortgage

I have always like South Carolina because even in the bad (and there was lots of it) their fans still showed up. That is an intangible that may not show up on the balance sheet. They would always be little brother in the ACC the same way most of the B1G will never escape Ohio State and Michigan. Clemson whiffed on the SEC in the 1990's and South Carolina took their spot.

A good decade deep into the SEC and the Cocks got their arse handed to them in both football and other sports as they invested in facilities / coaches and rebranded outside of the shadow of Clemson. In there ACC or IND they would have never gotten the chance to rebrand or the expose away from a more favored conference member.

Sure their football did better but they still don't have a SEC CCG win or MNC but now they get exposure. This has translated to their other sports where they are now cleaning the floor with their old rival. 2 CWS and 1 NCAA and they are still growing their other sports. Sure football is king, but 24 / 7 / 365 can only add value to conference networks if you have competitive sports year round.

TAMU has more money and more living alumni than South Carolina which means they can upgrade quicker and provide more year round content quicker than most schools in the country. A decade ago most folks did not know TAMU football existed outside the state. Now they have exposure all across the world with the SEC brand. They can easily be a Florida in the west in the since they may not dominate football like Alabama, but they will get year round exposure across all sports.

quote:

The pressure Sumlin is under is because Aggy understands that their chance to grasp control of Texas is narrowing and may have shut already.


The fact the SEC is in TX now means you are still stuck in the past. Coaches come and go but with TAMU in the SEC, the state of TX no longer enjoys a monopoly via the SWC or Big 12. Football is a big deal but successful conference networks mean building year round sports. The folks in austin seem to be stuck in the past making a 1 trick horse (football) and 1 trick pony (baseball) school. At least the Sooners have grasped being more rounded in sports across gender and season.
Posted by Boomer00
Member since Sep 2015
3376 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:34 pm to
A&M can't really be faulted for their decision to move. They assumed OU would be going with them, and in what world would that not be positive for A&M with the possibility of a marquee matchup with OU yearly and essentially cutting Bevos nuts off in the process. Had everything worked like it was supposed to OU and A&M would both be in the sec with a stranglehold on Texas recruiting. I however am in favor of OU always playing UT but from A&M POV the move looked positive in every way. They even had the option to join in the LHN and chose to leave.
This post was edited on 9/12/17 at 2:36 pm
Posted by Not Afraid of Bama
Member since Sep 2017
71 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:39 pm to
UT is a powerhouse in numerous sports.
Women's volleyball
Swimming and diving
Golf
Track and Field
Have been competitive in men's and women's basketball and softball

I do not think you can find a sport that UT never have competed in.
This post was edited on 9/12/17 at 2:44 pm
Posted by Not Afraid of Bama
Member since Sep 2017
71 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:43 pm to
You are missing the point.
The PAC 12 determines the price it sells its product for. ESPN pays the SEC a yearly fee.

So it is quite possible if UT and OU joined the PAC 12 the PAC 12 could sell their PAC 12 network to the cable and satellite providers at a higher cost
Plus they can sell commercial space at a higher cost meaning more money for the PAC 12 network.

The biggest issue between UT and the PAC 12 remains the network. People think that once the LHN ends with ESPN UT will manipulate the ESPN into giving UT a bigger contract again by using the PAC 12 but this remains to be seen.
Posted by Not Afraid of Bama
Member since Sep 2017
71 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:50 pm to
If what you said was true then UT would have been in the PAC 12. Then UT controls 100% of the Texas Oklahoma PAC 12 network.
That was not what the PAC 12 network is. It is not 6 different networks. It has 6 different versions of one network and just because SC and UCLA can sell their product at a higher cost doesn't mean they get more money than their conference counterparts
This post was edited on 9/12/17 at 2:51 pm
Posted by CocknDawg
Near Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
1274 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:52 pm to
I don't know, he is not the recruiter Saban is.

But what a coach. Put him at LSU, where recruiting is not necessary at the place built by Huey, and he would be in contention every second or third year.

I think Saban is the only coach in the ENTIRE SEC better than Patterson. In fact if I were Florida, I would be busy getting a Saban-like package to throw at him.
Posted by Sooner1984
Boone's Farm, Texas
Member since Jan 2017
455 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:53 pm to
So far, TCU looks darn good this year. It was predicted they would battle for the Big 12 title, and from I've seen, you have to put them in the top 3 of this conference as we speak. Maybe even top 2.

It isn't easy for a Big 12 team to slog against that enormous Arkansas team for 4 quarters, but Gary's team managed to get it done.

I'd say they would be competitive in the SEC. As good as, or better than either MS schools, A&M, Florida, maybe Tennessee, Vanderbilt, but not against their top 5. And some of you guys may be giving Auburn too much cred. If they don't turn that line around and find an offensive playbook that allows Stidham to use his arm, they could easily go .500 this year.
Posted by Sooner5030
Desert Southwest
Member since Sep 2014
1717 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:57 pm to
The PAC looked like the best option for UT, OU, and CFB.

But that was back when the B12 was about to be left behind in TV revenue by the other 4. Now they will likely average more than the ACC & PAC. Especially UT & OU.

Not sure how you convince UT & OU decision makers to look at the PAC as an option anymore.
Posted by Not Afraid of Bama
Member since Sep 2017
71 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:58 pm to
Patterson is almost 60 years old.
If he would have left TCU for a bigger job it would have been a long time ago.
This is just an assumption so he may prove me wrong but UF if they fire their coach will be looking for someone 10-15 years younger.
Posted by 3morereps
The Gym
Member since Jun 2015
6735 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 2:59 pm to
Not well, Trenton Thompson had 4 sacks against the frogs in their bowl game if my memory is correct. Arkansas is not good.
Posted by Not Afraid of Bama
Member since Sep 2017
71 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 3:00 pm to
The PAC is still an option because UT wants to control their media rights still and the PAC 12 gives UT the best chance at this.
The PAC 12 network is controlled by the conference so if the conference would add UT and OU it would jump by at least 15-20 million in revenue per school.

Like you said the best option will be to stay in the Big XII and possibly add Tulane and Memphis.
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
80415 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 3:04 pm to
quote:

UT is a powerhouse in numerous sports.
Women's volleyball
Swimming and diving
Golf
Track and Field
Have been competitive in men's and women's basketball and softball


National Championships in Track and Field:

Men's

A&M - 1 indoor (2017), 4 outdoor (2009, 2010, 2011, 2013)
t.u. - 0

Women's

A&M - 4 outdoor (2009, 2010, 2011, 2014)
t.u. - 6 indoor, 4 outdoor (none since 2006)

A&M is the only track and field program to pull off the outdoor "triple double" (three peat in both men's and women's)

You are NOT a track and field powerhouse
Posted by Not Afraid of Bama
Member since Sep 2017
71 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 3:10 pm to
Look at the amount of individual titles and Olympians produced by UT track and field then UT is a powerhouse in track and field
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
80415 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 3:16 pm to
That's like saying A&M is a powerhouse in football because they've had a player drafted in the first round every year from 2010 - 2017 and is the only school to have both a Super Bowl MVP and a Super Bowl-winning coach.
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
80415 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 3:19 pm to
Here's the main reason t.u. would never leave the Big 12 if they could help it...ego.

They are currently the #1 ranked academic school in the Big 12 in the 2018 U.S. News ratings; tied for 56th overall.

That would put them in the bottom half of the ACC, Big Ten, and PAC 12 and the middle of the pack in the SEC.
Posted by TxTiger82
Member since Sep 2004
33950 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 3:20 pm to
TCU would be competitive. Other than Alabama, I think they would be on par with the other good teams in the conference including LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn.
Posted by TxTiger82
Member since Sep 2004
33950 posts
Posted on 9/12/17 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

OU would skullfrick Auburn and LSU...



Wow, slow your roll, bro. Both of those teams have very good defenses.
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