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re: My Melt is Real, but I Have Data
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:33 pm to The Sultan of Swine
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:33 pm to The Sultan of Swine
tl,dr:
Regressing our win % on the average of our opponents since 1992 we see that an increase in our combined opponents' strength decreases our success. Suprisingly, Bert being the coach is not a historical predictor of this when compared to other coaches, although we do not have a ton of statistical power here. Graphing this over time, however, makes me think there is something there to tease out further. Thanks to Swine for the reccomendation of this.
2
Posted on 9/10/17 at 9:40 pm to Pigimus Prime
That drop after 2011 is insane. We are at a level if success we had never had, and then we fall to the darkest period ever.
This post was edited on 9/10/17 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 9/10/17 at 10:29 pm to Pigimus Prime
I'm amazed you actually did that. Really interesting results but yeah it's a pretty crude model. I wonder if taking opponents results vs Arkansas away from their total would make any difference. For example, if a team went 7-5 including a win vs Arkansas, they should really go down as 6-5.
There might be an issue of opponents winning more in a year specifically because we lost more that year.
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