Bill Connelly - 2017 Alabama Preview

The numbers
Projected Overall : #1
Projected Offense : #6
Projected Defense : #1

5 Toughest Games
1. vs Florida State (Bama by 8.3) (68% win probability)
2. @ Auburn (Bama by 11.6) (75% win probability)
3. vs LSU (Bama by 13.2) (78% win probability)
4. @ Texas A&M (Bama by 18.1) (85% win probability)
5. @ Mississippi State (Bama by 22.9) (91% win probability)

Interesting snippets

GENERAL

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From a quality standpoint, Alabama has been homogenous during this decade, but each team has had its own unique aspects, and this one might be more interesting than most. For one thing, the Tide boast the nation’s most talented and, perhaps, diverse running back corps, and they are now led by a coordinator who was part of the NFL’s best passing game. For another, while the defensive front seven has a lot of talent to replace, the secondary might be Saban’s best.

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One other unique aspect: the Tide begin against maybe the second- or third-best team in the country. They’re projected to win, but they’re still only a break or two from an 0-1 start and a loss of all Playoff margin for error.

OFFENSE

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First, about that “fade.” Alabama finished against teams with defenses ranked ninth (Auburn), fourth (Florida), eighth (Washington), and sixth (Clemson) in Def. S&P+, dealt with an awkward coordinator change — Lane Kiffin accepted the FAU job, stayed on board through the CFP semifinals, then got jettisoned in favor of Steve Sarkisian the week before the title game — and still averaged 34.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play.

Those are staggeringly good numbers. The only reason it was a fade is that the bar was so high. And the reason we noticed the Tide’s offensive struggle against Clemson (Clemson invited Hurts to hit a couple of deep balls while stopping the short stuff, and Hurts was only able to punish them once) was that it was so out of character.

With a freshman quarterback, Alabama had the most efficient offense in the SEC; when the Tide struggled (a rarity), it came in the big-play department — Calvin Ridley, by far the Tide’s top target, averaged just 11.2 yards per catch while serving as basically an extension of the run game.

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Kiffin’s Bama offense was based on strain. He has long loved the horizontal passing game, attempting to stretch defenses from side to side and force one-on-one tackling, and once you’re sufficiently stressed, pound away with a devastating run game. With Hurts behind center, the Tide ran more than normal last year, but they still ranked just 54th in standard-downs run rate — Kiffin still wanted to throw the ball when possible.

DEFENSE

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Alabama’s otherworldly defense screwed itself out of a perfect radar chart.

The Crimson Tide were good at virtually everything — first in Rushing S&P+, second in Passing S&P+, first in Standard Downs S&P+, first in Passing Downs S&P+ — but led good teams by so much, so frequently, that they gave up a big pass play here and there. Part of their problem in the “20-yard passes per game” average is the sheer number of passes they faced against offenses that knew how to throw the ball.

Overall, Alabama was easily the most efficient defense in the SEC and prevented big plays nearly as well as the bend-don’t-break teams in the league.

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That’s a lot, even for Bama. The Tide are replacing all of these guys with not only former blue-chippers, but experienced blue-chippers. But that’s still a lot. Foster, Allen, and Anderson were particularly good, even by Saban standards.

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There’s at least a slight question mark at cornerback. Granted, there’s margin for error when you’ve got these safeties, but while starter Anthony Averett does return (as does 2016 reserve Levi Wallace), it appears that converted receiver Trevon Diggs is in line for the other starting spot. If he doesn’t get the job, redshirt freshman Nigel Knott might. Both are a former all-world recruits (of course), but the fact that a newbie has risen that quickly is, if nothing else, maybe a sign of iffy depth.

SPECIAL TEAMS

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Alabama got far less than it was used to getting from its return game last year, particularly after all-world return man Eddie Jackson went down with a knee injury. Meanwhile, Adam Griffith finished his career with an average campaign. This combined to give Bama just a No. 51 Special Teams S&P+ ranking in 2016. Settling for mediocrity!

Breaking in a new kicker is often scary, but while Griffith was decent, he didn’t set the bar unattainably high. Meanwhile, the Tide still have booming punter JK Scott on their side. This might not be an elite unit in 2017, but it probably won’t be worse than last year’s.

OVERALL

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When you’re a blue blood, you need make only a good hire to end up very good on the field. In Saban, this blue blood made the best possible hire. And it immediately offset 10 years of shoddy hires.

This year brings the typical list of #BamaProblems to the table. The Tide have to replace their latest batch of studs, and they face as challenging a schedule as ever: three projected top-10 opponents and only three opponents projected worse than 43rd.

They’re still Bama, though. They damn near had their best Saban team last year despite an offensive backfield as inexperienced as any in the country. They boast the best backfield in the country, one of their best defensive backfields, and plenty of star power. S&P+ projects them an easy No. 1 in the country and gives them a worse than 75 percent chance of winning in just one game (68 percent against FSU in the opener).

As has been proven, in the case of Bama versus the field for the national title, you pick the field, for better odds. But Saban’s 11th Crimson Tide squad is starting the season like most of his other teams have: ahead of the pack.