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How much influence do past games/trends have on this season?
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:41 am
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:41 am
This sort of thinking comes up frequently in threads about upcoming games: "You haven't beaten us on the road since 1999", or "Your HC has never beaten our HC", or "We always win at home in our series, and your team always wins at your place, so it's our turn to win this year", and so on.
While there is something to be said for history, how much do previous games or trends actually affect the outcome of an upcoming contest between the same two schools?
a) A lot
b) Some
c) Not much
d) Almost none
I tend to think "d". What say you, Rantards?
While there is something to be said for history, how much do previous games or trends actually affect the outcome of an upcoming contest between the same two schools?
a) A lot
b) Some
c) Not much
d) Almost none
I tend to think "d". What say you, Rantards?
14
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:46 am to FearlessFreep
Florida, USCe, and Tennessee havent beat us in years.
Whenever we lose to them, the recent trend will have no effect on that game.
Whenever we lose to them, the recent trend will have no effect on that game.
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 9:48 am
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:47 am to FearlessFreep
I would tend to say D, but I feel like some of that shite just gets stuck in the heads of our players and coaches.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:48 am to FearlessFreep
quote:
While there is something to be said for history, how much do previous games or trends actually affect the outcome of an upcoming contest between the same two schools?
I believe that programs can just have a mental edge over another based off trends/past results.
For example since the 90's Florida just has UGA's number. Even in our best years they either beat us or give us a scare. No matter how bad they are this happens.
Another example would be UGA over Auburn, so I can see why you wouldn't want to believe in the existence of a mental edge.
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 9:54 am
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:51 am to FearlessFreep
I would probably go with C in most cases. There are so many factors involved to really apply one of those choices to every situation.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:51 am to FearlessFreep
you guys like the D 
Posted on 4/26/17 at 10:00 am to FearlessFreep
quote:
c) Not much
Only in relatively rare cases when a streak is exceptional and very highly publicized. It can start to weigh on a team.
Even then, the streak usually exists because one team is consistently better. When that flips, so does the series.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 10:00 am to FearlessFreep
I could be wrong, but I think Bama has beaten us something like six times in a row? Haven't heard much about it though
Posted on 4/26/17 at 10:04 am to FearlessFreep
None
Posted on 4/26/17 at 10:35 am to FearlessFreep
C
These are kids. They can absolutely be impacted by what they've previously participated in. That immense pressure from their fellow students and fan base to buck the trend is usually counterproductive. "Here we go again" when something goes wrong can snowball in a hurry
These are kids. They can absolutely be impacted by what they've previously participated in. That immense pressure from their fellow students and fan base to buck the trend is usually counterproductive. "Here we go again" when something goes wrong can snowball in a hurry
Posted on 4/26/17 at 10:41 am to FearlessFreep
quote:
c) Not much
examples:
Florida had streaks against 2 teams last season. The trend would be for them both to continue. UF-UK continued...UF-UT did not.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 10:46 am to FearlessFreep
A lot.
LSU will lose to Bama but still beat Aggy, so streak at 7 for the respective teams.
Aggy will still beat Arkansas.
Tennessee and Arkansas and Mississippi State will be blown out by Bama.
Auburn, the away team, will continue the tradition of the road team winning in the series with Texas A&M.
LSU will lose to Bama but still beat Aggy, so streak at 7 for the respective teams.
Aggy will still beat Arkansas.
Tennessee and Arkansas and Mississippi State will be blown out by Bama.
Auburn, the away team, will continue the tradition of the road team winning in the series with Texas A&M.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 12:35 pm to FearlessFreep
quote:
d) Almost none
This, except to the extent that one or both teams allow past history to affect their mental approach to the upcoming game.
That said, they can be an indication of what to expect even if they don't "affect" the game. None of Alabama's defensive plays or scores from previous years are going to put any points on the board for them in this year's game against LSU, but the fact that they made all those plays can inform us that there is a significant talent disparity between the two teams that has continued for several years and has not likely been undone in the past six months. Therefore, we can reasonably predict that the talent disparity remains and will likely determine the outcome again.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 1:31 pm to FearlessFreep
quote:It's mental. Elite head coaches are able to remove the mental aspect that could influence a game based on past trends. Get the coaches and players prepared to do their damn job and past trends don't mean shite when the players take the field.
d) Almost none
Posted on 4/26/17 at 1:39 pm to FearlessFreep
I would go with a C. As an example after two seasons of having a defense that can generously be described as lackluster (historically bad in some regards) Arkansas made the shift to a new DC and a 3-4 look.
I think Bert is a 4-3 guy who likes getting pressure with the linemen but the results have steered him towards going with a 3-4 look given then tendency of teams to spread the ball out.
It is understandable though, the 4-3 Bert prefers gives conventional offenses the fits, witness the trouble Bama had for a couple of seasons against the defense (even though they won). But no one outside us and LSU are running conventional offenses right now.
You have to adapt to changing trends or you will die on the vine.
I think Bert is a 4-3 guy who likes getting pressure with the linemen but the results have steered him towards going with a 3-4 look given then tendency of teams to spread the ball out.
It is understandable though, the 4-3 Bert prefers gives conventional offenses the fits, witness the trouble Bama had for a couple of seasons against the defense (even though they won). But no one outside us and LSU are running conventional offenses right now.
You have to adapt to changing trends or you will die on the vine.
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