re: Clemson is the first Rivals-era National Champion without a Top 5 Class

quote:

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It was a good year for the ACC

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Largely this. Between quality of QB, quality HCs with experience, and matchups, everything worked out pretty well this year for the ACC.
If I look at the matchups against the spread of teams not named Bama/Clemson (both favored in initial contest, Clemson clearly came out ahead in the end) a good way to look at it is how many won matchups were initially favored by a field goal or less (generally can be used to consider a less obvious expected outcome).

ACC:
FSU W (Michigan) (+7)
Miami W ( WVU) (-3)
Wake W (Temple) * (+13)
Boston College W (Maryland) * (+1)


SEC:
UGA W (-1)
UT W (-3)
UF W (-2.5)

Gotta give ACC the best "quality" win there for the FSU victory over Michigan (in the CFP mix) and a bigger "upset" with Wake over Temple a top 25 team going into the bowl (though arguably that line should have been adjusted by more given Temple's coach leaving). Otherwise, fairly similar matchup makeup for these games.

If you expand to 3.5 -7 point lines, it looks a little different:
Wins:
ACC
Ga Tech W (Kentucky) (-3.5)
Virginia Tech W (-7)
NC St W (-4.5)

SEC
LSU W (-3.5)

Losses:
ACC
Pitt L (-5.5)
UNC L (+3.5)
Louisville L (+3.5)

SEC
Vandy L (+4.5)
aTm L (-2)
Arky L (+7)
UK L (+3.5)
Auburn L (+3.5)

The interesting question to me will be are they able to follow up this success. This was one of the worst years for the SEC in terms of QB experience returning, and coaching experience (lots of turnover in the last 2-3 seasons). Clemson has huge losses at QB/WR/DEF this year (10-11 expected to be drafted). Similarly, FSU will have a good bit leaving to the draft (6-7 expected to get drafted) though they have recruited quite well and should "reload" more easily. With those 2 clearly leading the pack in the ACC and Louisville probably sitting in a reasonably close 3rd it will be interesting to see if this is sustainable.

Unrelated, but did anyone else see that Michigan has a graduation/draft attrition at 19 right now? All but 2 of them are expected to get drafted or sign UDFA contracts as well. Seems like a lot.