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New Offenses and the Decline of the SEC

Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:27 am
Posted by Teague
The Shoals, AL
Member since Aug 2007
21699 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:27 am
I can't help but wonder if it is mere coincidence that the SEC seems to have fallen off a bit with the rise of the new offensive style within the league.

I'm not saying it's true, but I wonder.

These spread offenses seem more unpredictable. When they're on, they allow lesser teams to compete above their level, and when they're not they allow very good teams to fall on their face. I suppose that's true with any offense, but I think it's compounded with these new spreads. I think the result is a lot of 7-5 teams.

I understand there are a ton of variables within each offense, and we can't paint them all with a broad brush. But, I do remember the days of SEC teams matching up against B12 teams and being confident the SEC team would stifle those offenses with good defense, and ball control offense.

Anyway, I'm not sure I'm on board with my own theory. Just looking for thoughts and actual football discussion.
Posted by DuncanIdaho
Ouray, CO
Member since Feb 2013
14970 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:30 am to
quote:

When they're on, they allow lesser teams to compete above their level, and when they're not they allow very good teams to fall on their face

I agree with that. Auburn's offense is either very good or it's awful.
But QB play this year hasn't been very good and a lot of teams were starting freshmen or starting backups because their starters went down.
This post was edited on 12/2/16 at 8:31 am
Posted by TigerPaw1
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Apr 2011
16979 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:36 am to
I think it's less about systems and more about bad QB play. It seems like teams that did have QB spot figured out suffered injuries. Half the teams in the SEC West saw their starter go down: Sean White (AU), Trevor Knight (A&M) & Chad Kelly (OM). Then you have Mississippi State breaking in a new starter, UGA with a true freshman, UF with injuries and South Carolina taking half the season to switch to Bentley. SEC QB play is in a funk right now but there's lots of talented freshman in the league: Jalen Hurts, Shea Patterson, Jacob Eason & Jake Bentley. I think you will see better out of SEC next season

Doesn't matter the system if you don't have a QB due to injury or bad development
This post was edited on 12/2/16 at 8:38 am
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
7798 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:39 am to
It is notable how many teams in the Top10 right now are either ones with better defenses than offenses like Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado or ones that are at least pretty balanced.

Regarding the SEC, QB play may be just as much of an issue though, which is ironic since some of the "systems" are purported to make plugging in an effective QB easier.

Auburn, Florida and LSU all seem to have defenses that could see them competing for a playoff spot if they had better QB play all season.
This post was edited on 12/2/16 at 8:45 am
Posted by VOLLeyLLama
Asheville, NC
Member since Oct 2016
411 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:39 am to
Yes the new spread attacks can be dominant if coached by the right people and used by the very best skilled players available. But they have a habit of being predictable if there is not enough variability within the playbook. The defenses have been inconsistent outside of Bama, LSU, Florida and Auburn, especially against the run. Back just a couple of years ago, the SEC had the best defenses in the country, but those teams are not as numerous as they used to be. A huge problem for the conference has been that the East is down and has been down since 2010 or 2011. I don't see it getting any better in the near future. But at least the Rant can dick ride Bama to another possible title, right?
This post was edited on 12/2/16 at 8:40 am
Posted by silverstreak02
Charlotte, NC
Member since Aug 2013
970 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:40 am to
I think you can probably point to a lack of quality starting quarterbacks as the flagship schools combined with the Saban effect making everything that isn't an undefeated or 1-loss season a failure.

During the SEC's heyday of the 2000s, look at the QBs that were in the league: Chris Leak, Tebow, David Greene, Stafford, Jamarcus Russell (go ahead, laugh), Erik Ainge, Connor Shaw, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, and the list goes on and on.

Now, the SEC has what, 2 or 3 guys who would maybe be all-conference in the other P5 leagues? Swag and Hurts, but I think even his success has more to do with his mobility rather than his passing skills.

Two of the power players in the league are starting Purdue transfers, while Georgia just moved on from a Virginia transfer. Dobbs has been a decent player, but far too inconsistent to guide Tennessee to more than a .500 SEC mark.

Then you throw in Saban, who has turned the SEC West into a series of 1-game seasons for his opponents, knowing that if they fall to Bama, they're basically 2 games behind in the division and Bama has only lost more than 1 SEC game once since 2008. Not to mention the national championships that go along with it.
Posted by TouchdownTony
Central Alabama
Member since Apr 2016
9704 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:43 am to
Even Spurrier

When he came into the league nobody could defend the post corner routes he threw constantly. SEC defense were stationary at the LOS and stopped the run.

Spurrier had very few 3 step drops. His were 7 step, long developing patterns. Now, with the speed rushers in the SEC and pass rushing defensive lines, his non-mobile QB's would be eaten alive. What did Wuerffel run the 40 in? Doug Johnson, Shane Matthews?
Those guys would be broke in half by mid season.

It's why he changed to misdirection at South Carolina vs drop back, deep, long developing routes.
Posted by BurgTiger
Member since Feb 2014
2771 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 9:09 am to
Hey, you chose to bring us and A&M in with our quick hit spread offenses. There's no doubt a high rep quick snap offense will tire a defense over time. It opens teams up to collapse. When a team gets 60% more series a game it creates more variables.

I agree entirely that it may not be a Playoff championship formula, but it does create higher upset opportunities and injuries for that factor due to more snaps.
Posted by labamafan
Prairieville
Member since Jan 2007
24266 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 9:21 am to
I don't think this new brand of offense is a neccessity. I want Bama to go back to a ball control power run game utilizing Hurts and hopefully Tua s abilities. I think the key is as Saban has done is recruit two different types of DL players. We have our LSU game DL and our Clemson DL.
Posted by Boomer00
Member since Sep 2015
3376 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 9:28 am to
The best offense is more of a mixed version of the spread. Oklahoma and tOSU both run spread offenses that can attack vertically down field, but also run the ball just as much as they throw it.
Posted by mtn cur
south
Member since Nov 2016
229 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 9:31 am to
meh...........it happens. lets see what the next 2-3 look like
Posted by GurleyGirl
Georgia
Member since Nov 2015
13174 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 9:33 am to
It's a reasonable deduction. I really can't think of a reason why I wouldn't want an athletic QB who adds a new dimension to my offense via multiple options.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
105446 posts
Posted on 12/2/16 at 9:57 am to
Bama is 12-0 and going strong with the new style of offense. What makes the new style of offense work is a good QB.

Take a look at the teams throughout the league. Many teams have inferior QB play. If they have good QB play then they have poor talent at skilled positions, poor OL play, or bad defense.

If Auburn had a better QB they win more games and compete much better vs Bama.
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