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re: Understanding Sagarin (and other computer polls, I suppose)
Posted on 10/24/16 at 12:51 pm to viceman
Posted on 10/24/16 at 12:51 pm to viceman
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Does Sagarin use the old bcs formula? Or is it straight up computer? Ok, i saw the site. I think it has to do with the golden mean, which favors teams that win by a larger margin. Clemson wins, but they haven't exactly been dominating as much tOSU. Only a computer would rank tOSU over Clemson after that Penn State loss. The computer also has no memory of Watson lighting up Bama's defense
Good points.
One thing I would add is that Sagarin's rankings -- at least the "predictor" ones -- have a lot more weights than simple sis. Even considering SOS, there seems be more credit given for going 2-1 against Top20-ish foes even if there are also more cupcakes on that schedule than undefeated against almost all middle of the road opponents even if the raw SOS of the latter may rank higher.
Decent logic in the sense that it's often tougher to be 8-1 when you play 3 legit teams even if the rest are weak than undefeated against all decent but not great teams.
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