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re: OT - I hope y'all are ready for President Clinton *gag*
Posted on 10/31/16 at 2:03 pm to FooManChoo
Posted on 10/31/16 at 2:03 pm to FooManChoo
I'm suspicious of a number of these polls as well. When they are reporting Clinton has a chance in Texas that tells me something is just a little off as far as predictions go.
1
Posted on 10/31/16 at 3:56 pm to Litigator
The polls are so ridiculously skewed they're just stupid.
For instance, Obama had record turnouts in 08 and 12 and exit polls showed a +6 Dem Skew. These polls that RCP are using in their composite average a +9 skew right now and showing Hillary up +2.5. Which is absurd. Hillary is not going to have a higher voter turnout than Obama.
On top of this, however, there's even more to it when you look deeper at the polls. They are not only over-sampling Democrats by +6 to +10, but they are also over-sampling women, minorities, and younger age groups, which are all big skew advantages Dem.
Trump is going to win in a landslide. He's got Fla, NC, OH, NV, AZ, IA, and GA in the bag easy. And then he's very likely going to take MI, PA, and MAYBE even NH, MN, and WI.
The Rust Belt states are going to go Red again. Just watch.
For instance, Obama had record turnouts in 08 and 12 and exit polls showed a +6 Dem Skew. These polls that RCP are using in their composite average a +9 skew right now and showing Hillary up +2.5. Which is absurd. Hillary is not going to have a higher voter turnout than Obama.
On top of this, however, there's even more to it when you look deeper at the polls. They are not only over-sampling Democrats by +6 to +10, but they are also over-sampling women, minorities, and younger age groups, which are all big skew advantages Dem.
Trump is going to win in a landslide. He's got Fla, NC, OH, NV, AZ, IA, and GA in the bag easy. And then he's very likely going to take MI, PA, and MAYBE even NH, MN, and WI.
The Rust Belt states are going to go Red again. Just watch.
This post was edited on 10/31/16 at 3:58 pm
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