re: The BIG 6 vs The BIG 6 ALL-TIME

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I think it was the #2 factor (along with his performance overall vs good teams and our other rivals).

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Again, not sure why this is so hard for you to understand. No one is saying that there aren't typically a million reasons that all factor together in the decision to fire a coach.

I'm sure Ear's overall record had a ton to do with it. I'm sure Bama's 2-3 record vs. Tennessee and 1-4 record vs. LSU from 2002-2006 also had something to do with firing Shula.

But history shows overwhelming evidence that as soon as either Auburn or Alabama gets a major foothold on the power inside the state, the other side makes a coaching change. Almost every time.

Tuberville was not fired after losing to Alabama in 2001. Why? Because despite Bama's blowout Iron Bowl win, that game had little meaning in terms of power shifting inside the state. Alabama and Auburn were essentially splitting the in-state power both before and after that game. They were both 7-5 'ish type teams that year.

But 2008 was a different story. Tuberville was not fired for losing to Alabama in 2008. He was fired because it was obvious that Auburn at 5-7 and Bama at 12-0 at the end of the regular season showed that a MAJOR power shift had occurred, and Auburn's program was on the verge of being left in the dust unless they hired a new coach who understood the gravity of the situation. Tuberville's consistent "above average but not great" way of doing things at Auburn were not going to cut it for them at that time.

So its not necessarily losing a game to your in-state rival that causes the program to panic, its losing control of the power.

The same thing was the case with Alabama and Shula. The fact that Auburn finished #2 and nearly missed playing for a National Title had to scare the crap out of Bama fans in 2004.... but Shula was only two seasons into a tenure that included massive scholarship losses due to probation.

Despite losing to Auburn in 2005, I think Bama felt they had largely wrestled back a lot of the power that had been lost to Auburn in 2004. At the end of the season, Bama sat at 10-2 and #8 in the country... Auburn was 9-3 and #14. Losing to Auburn in 2005 was not a fire-able offense because despite the Iron Bowl loss, Shula took back a lot of power that year.

But 2006 was different. Shula's overall performance was not that bad despite his 6-6 record. Aside from the head-scratching loss to Mississippi State, Bama lost to the #1, #3, #9, #15, and #25 teams of 2006... by an average of just 8 points.

Considering Bama was still dealing with the effects of probation, I think most any reasonable person would say that Shula was improving the overall quality of the Alabama program from the lows of 2003. I think had Auburn been 4-8 in 2006, Shula would have received another year. In fact, there is no doubt in my mind he would have.

But the problem was Auburn put together a pretty impressive season in 2006. They were 11-2 and their season included an impressive win over the eventual National Champion Florida Gators. Auburn's 11-2 record... which ballooned to an impressive 33-5 over the previous 3 seasons... is what caused Alabama to panic and fire Shula. The 5 consecutive losses to Auburn were a big part.... as were other things.... but the main reason Shula was let go is that it was obvious at the end of 2006 that Tuberville had all the power in the state of Alabama.

I can tell you this too: Gus Malzahn will not be fired at the end of this season... even if he loses to Alabama... if despite an Iron Bowl loss he can point to taking back bit of power in the rivalry.

If Malzahn goes 7-5 and loses to Alabama by 10 points or so... He gets fired if Bama wins the SEC and/or National Title. But he could have the exact same 7-5 record and 10-point Iron Bowl loss and keep his job if Bama goes 9-3 and doesn't make it to Atlanta.

Why? Because its not about winning or losing to your arch rival... its long-game that matters. Will Alabama cede a big of their power and will Auburn see a bit of hope in gaining some back? If that's the case, Malazhn gets another year.