Started By
Message
Football Study Hall: Which CFB coaches consistently overachieve or underachieve?
Posted on 7/29/16 at 5:47 pm
Posted on 7/29/16 at 5:47 pm
quote:
Last offseason, I tinkered with a measure called second-order wins. It is basically my version of the Pythagorean Wins concept, where you look at a certain component (usually points or runs scored and allowed) and determine what a team's record probably should be as opposed to what it actually is. If you're losing a ton of close games but winning a bunch of blowouts, that's probably a sign that, on average, you would be faring better than you are.
My second-order wins concept looks at the single-game win expectancy figures you see in the 2015 Schedule & Results chart below. The idea behind win expectancy is simple: It takes the key stats from a given game (success rates, explosiveness, field position factors, and other factors that end up going into the S&P+ ratings), mashes them together, and says, "With these stats, you probably could have expected to win this game X percent of the time." Add those figures up over the course of a season, and you get a glimpse of what a given team probably could have expected its record to be.
Below is a look at everyone who has been a head coach at least four years since 2005 and what their average difference is per year -- actual wins vs. win expectation.
Biggest overachievers by Diff. Wins/Year
1. Ken Niumatalolo 1.08
2. Bill Snyder 0.94
2. Gus Malzahn 0.94
4. Dave Christensen 0.91
5. Mark Hudspeth 0.89
6. Matt Campbell 0.81
7. Pat Fitzgerald 0.80
8. David Bailiff 0.79
9. Rich Brooks 0.71
10. DeWayne Walker 0.68
Biggest Underachievers
1. Todd Dodge -1.28
2. Kevin Wilson -0.96
3. Steve Addazio -0.87
4. Tyrone Willingham -0.86
5. Phil Fulmer -0.62
5. Joe Glenn -0.62
7. Doug Martin -0.60
8. Hal Mumme -0.59
9. Dave Wannstedt -0.57
10. Houston Nutt -0.56
LINK
Posted on 7/29/16 at 5:57 pm to Bench McElroy
Dude needs to scrap that model ASAP.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 6:09 pm to Bench McElroy
Man, Gus would be #1 by a good margin if it wasn't for last years catastrophe
Posted on 7/29/16 at 6:14 pm to JuiceTerry
Yeah it's odd. Tells me that Auburn puts themselves in bad situations way more than they should. No class on any Malzahn coached team was ever any worse than eleventh in recruiting.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 6:25 pm to BowlJackson
LOL Gus over achieved?
List is shite
List is shite
Posted on 7/29/16 at 6:33 pm to 14&Counting
Taking a 3-9 (0-8) team that's unranked and picked near the bottom of the division to 13 seconds from a National Championship, the single greatest one year turnaround in NCAA history... With a DB at QB... Probably the most overachieving season ever.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 6:59 pm to BowlJackson
Yeah that was a magical year for Auburn. The first coach I thought about when I saw this thread was Gus. First coach I thought of for underachieving was Les lol.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 7:03 pm to BowlJackson
Average recruiting class ranking of that team was something like seventh. Chizik underachieved. That's why he got fired.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 7:12 pm to VivaZapata27
Isn't having to pull out close games underachieving for some of these guys? But they are called overachievers for beating teams they should probably beat? Makes zero sense.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 7:15 pm to BowlJackson
quote:
Taking a 3-9 (0-8) team that's unranked and picked near the bottom of the division to 13 seconds from a National Championship, the single greatest one year turnaround in NCAA history
Yet his only loss prior to the NC game was to the proverbial underachiever. Go figure.
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News