re: What are the chances Alabama loses 3 games or more this year?

Always a possibility with the schedule we play.
Possible losses:

USC
LSU
Ole Miss
Tennessee


Also possible for a team like Arkansas or Auburn to pull the upset.

Plus the bowl game. If we lose a couple of games or so history shows us that the staff and team think the season was a failure and proceed in getting their arse kicked by a lesser team that is thrilled to be there.

So yeah, it's possible.